7.30.2011

Engineering Infinity

This book's covered grab my eye.  The book did not grab my interest.  Totally disappointed as the stories really didn't have any thing to do with Engineering.  I am bummed

7.25.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 3-4 week against the Braves and D-Backs. The Rox currently stand at 48-54. Eleven games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 26-26 at home and 22-28 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 466-457 (expected wins is 50 versus historical wins at 48). On pace for 76 wins with 726 runs scored and 740 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.98 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

The Real World
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has been diagnosed with leukemia.  I don't know Dave but his work has been a bedrock of the baseball stat world (Mt Rushmore maybe?).  As baseball nerds, we certainly can get buried in the minutia of the game.  I found this to be an interesting quote from someone who does play the numbers game,
"History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking..."
I think it is helpful for us all to remember that while baseball stats do tend to show tendencies and likely outcomes, the human element can make a difference even if it doesn't show up in the box score.  That is why I think Dave will beat this because he is a baseball fan and understands the numbers don't always decide who wins or loses.  Does Dave Roberts steal of second base in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS a statistic blip or does it show what the human element can do to influence a win or to live life?
Of course looking at the Rox it has been an incredibly disappointing season.  Once again expectations were so great and 100 games into the season all we have to show for it is a close to .500 season.  Numbers would seem to have been in our favor but somewhere that human element showed up and no matter what the numbers say in the end we sometimes just shrug our shoulders and hope maybe it will be better next year...Cubs fans sure hope so ;)

7.24.2011

Captain America

Expectations high, movie OK.  Mark of a good movie is whether I want a digital copy.  This one not so much.  Back end was good...middle part painful although I understand they had to build the character for the Avengers.  

Iron Man set the expectation but Thor and Capt A are just previews for what Marvel hopes to be a blockbuster of biblical proportions.

7.18.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 2-2 week against the Brewers. The Rox currently stand at 45-50. Nine and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 24-24 at home and 21-26 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 422-421 (expected wins is 47 versus historical wins at 44). On pace for 77 wins with 718 runs scored and 720 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.00 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Double Plays
In a tweet by @schoolofrox he she wondered if Rox double play machine was that good or our defense is just given too many opportunities or chances to excel? Data from Baseball Reference kindly tabulates (see below) the number of opportunities (Opp) in which the opposing team has a runner on first with less than two outs and the number of double plays. Data shows Rox are below average in opportunities and extremely good at getting the opposing team to hit into a double play.

All Star Game
Another exciting (note the sarcasm) All Star game in the books.  For the second year in a row, the NL wins thus ensuring home field advantage in the World Series.  Unlike other games this one seemed lopsided from the start.  The NL pitching roster was just filthy while most of the AL star pitchers were watching this one on TV.  Not for sure if the players felt that way too but it seemed the NL was in it to win it while the AL just simply went through the motions.  Not a lot of excitement from the AL.  Kind of disheartening...
U-Ball Trade Rumors
Popping up in some twitter feeds and blog postings is the thought that the Rox are listening to possible trade propositions for U-Ball's services.  Funny how rumors like this start.  Suddenly we hear that U-Ball is disgruntled because of the money shelled out to CarGo and Tulo this past fall.  We hear management has been frustrated with undisclosed injuries and what not.  Certainly a situation ripe for conspiracy baseball theorist but I have to think a lot of this is just not true. 

I don't know U-Ball personally but he seems like a nice kid.  Doesn't need his ego fed.  As far as his lackluster finish last year and struggles this year it would seem that maybe we don't know the whole picture.  I give credit at least for the Rox listening.  Some teams might get desperate and with our salary impairments being able to rake in a treasure trove of players might just be the way to get things done (i.e. Texas Rangers?). 

It is obvious to me that 2011 is done and like it or not this current make up isn't going to get it done.  Too many holes to fill and certain players haven't developed as planned.  Rox threw the dice and came up empty.  Rox aren't going into the free agent market to remake this team so really the only way to get better on paper is to trade a high value pitcher and hope prospects get us to the next level.

Sure hate to see a fireballer get sent away but baseball takes 25 guys and right now the three O's aren't enough to even win the NL Wild West...how are we going to beat the likes of Philadelphia or Atlanta?  That is why I don't buy jersey with a player's name on it because in the Colorado market who know what Dealin' Dan might just do...


7.11.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 2-5 week against the Braves and Nationals. The Rox currently stand at 43-48. Eight and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 22-22 at home and 21-26 on the road, the Rox have been outscored by its opponents 407-395 (expected wins is 44 versus historical wins at 43). On pace for 77 wins with 703 runs scored and 725 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 0.97 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

First half - Done.  First divisional championship - Unlikely.  Playoff hopes - Doubtful.  No matter how you package the first half, once again the Rox have been disappointing and expectations have not been met.  Over the last two years, coming into the season, the management, team, media, and fans have all come to a conclusion that this would be the year.  The year to finally compete with the big boy teams and make another run to the World Series.  Throw in the fact that this year, the Rox signed Tulo and CarGo to long term deals, re-signed de la Rosa, and signed some nice components off the scrap heap, the Rox had hoped to compete.  Unfortunately after a 17-9 April start, things have gone down hill quickly.  Middle of the road teams like our Rox really need to have all things work.  They don't have the resiliency to have players not play to their perceived capabilities.  Rox are currently on pace to score 703 runs.  Preseason projections expected this team to score close to 800 runs.  Where did all the runs go?  Lowest total in Rox history before this year? 740 in 2005. 

My in season analysis - small payroll team's like the Rox get killed when the run expectancy changes so quickly.  How many teams out there forgot what small ball was?  You build teams 5 years ago at least with an eye on how to win in your league, division, and ball park.  What if the rug gets pulled out from under you and suddenly low scoring, one run games become the norm and yet you build a team on big home run hitters with pedestrian speed?  I think it becomes tough to pull a switcheroo mid season.  You can't just go out and find speed.  Sad thing is our Rox do have some speed and yet he finds himself playing AAA ball. 

All in all, to finish with 90 wins they need to go 48 - 23.  Of course Giants are on pace for 92 wins.  Wild card? Yeah right, Braves are chasing the Phillies (on pace for 101 wins) who are on pace for 95 wins.  So unless the Braves have an epic fail in their final 70 games I think the only chance Rox have to get to the playoffs would be winning the division.  Could Rox win 48 - 50 games in their final 71 games?  In 2007 they went 45 - 26, 2008 36 - 35, 2009 43-28, and 2010 33 - 38.  Don't think lightning is going to strike twice but Giants need to go 38 - 32 to win 90 games.  Sure they could go through a rough spot and Rox could get hot again but it is a pretty steep road to get there!

7.10.2011

US Space Program RIP


This Sums Up our Country
US Space Program - Rest in Peace.  Our country's lack of imagination and desire to push boundaries is officially over.  Our country is broke and continues to spend money on wars to keep our military industrial complex humming.  Today while visiting a beloved museum, the Alabama Space and Rocket Center (Home of Space Camp!), I realized just how bad it is.  Pictured above was once a nice space program relic, a full scale mock up of Sky Lab, which once held a special place in the museum is now being rained on while the space it used to fill now has dinosaurs (?). 

In the past 5 years the museum has spent a tremendous amount of money on commenerating the Apollo Project having taken another old full scale model, once located outside, and turned it into a hallmark exhibit.  Very similar to what was done at the Kennedy Space Center.  Certainly an upgrade and a nice layout featuring the apex of our space program.  No real complaints until you start to look a little closer.  Some museum pieces just thrown into display cases without indicating what they were or who used them.  Dust bunnies on rocket engines, mismash of collections, and then blantant displays of "sponsors" thus indicating that we are so freaking poor we have to plaster a whole bunch of logos to display some of our countries greatest technial feats. 

Saddest part is they have this nice little story how we are going back to the moon...oh yeah that got canceled and everything else we thought we could do...canceled.  Sorry America your future has been canceled...

7.06.2011

Haiku Wednesday

Space Shuttle
You are all I know
Ten years old when you first flew
Columbia soared


I read the manual
I went to Space Camp, two times
Astronaut my goal


Cold January
My heart froze, Challenger gone
NASA still stalwart


Endeavour first flew
Years after her sisters built
Space Station workhorse


I'm off to college
Is reaching space common place?
My dream wavering


Discovery seeks
It brought Hubble to orbit
Universe smaller


I am too old now
Shuttle done no where to go
Dream is still alive


Atlantis ends era
Thirty years leading the way
Ahead of its time


Today's ten year olds
How will they reach the stars?
Where is their future...

7.05.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 3-4 week against the Cubs (make up game), White Sox and Royals. The Rox currently stand at 41-43. Six and half games behind the Giants for the division lead in third place. Currently 22-22 at home and 19-21 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 382-378 (expected wins is 42 versus historical wins at 39). On pace for 79 wins with 737 runs scored and 729 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.01 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Rox finish the 2011 interleague schedule 8-7 (DET 45-41, NYY 50-33, CLE 45-38, CHW 43-43 , KCR 34-51).  Giants went 10-5 (CLE 45-38, DET 45-41, MIN 36-46, OAK 38-48), Dodgers went 6-9 (CHW 43-43, DET 45-41, LAA 45-41, MIN 37-46), D-Backs went 10-8 (MIN 37-46, KCR 34-51, DET 45-41, CLE 45-38, OAK 38-48), and Padres went 6-9 (BOS 49-35, KCR 34-51, MIN 36-46, SEA 42-43).  As of today's records, Rox teams faced winning percentage of 0.513, Giants 0.487, Dodgers 0.504, D-Backs 0.470, and Padres 0.479.  What does it all mean?  Probably nothing but Rox still finish well against the interleague rivalries and still find themselves 6.5 games out in the division.  Rox are now 111-112 all time against the AL.

Rox finally realized the second base situation was hopeless and traded for 8 year veteran Mark Ellis.  I give credit to O'Dowd for still trying to make gold out of lead but I think relatively soon our Rox will be sellers.  Face it, a week before the All Star break our Rox stand 41-43 and 6.5 games out.  Can we realistically believe, like everyone else in baseball, the Rox are going to do their late season run?  Throw in the fact that we are in third behind a resurgent D-Backs team that doesn't appear to coming back to the pack and well face it fans this ain't the Rox year (oh yeah CarGo ran into a wall on Sunday).  Although to try and stay positive the graphic below would seem to indicate we're not dead yet or at least 5 teams were division winners after being behind in June!

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/18/2172700/when-is-a-team-out-of-it