4.28.2011

Comic Splat

The Amazing Spider-Man #659
New team for Spidey
Some dimensional hijinks
But Sinister Six?

4.27.2011

Haiku Wednesday

Derby

Hat versus horse race?
Milliners against Jockeys 
Horse prefers roses

4.25.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 2-4 week against the Giants and Marlins. The Rox currently stand at 14-7. Three game lead in the division. Currently 6-4 at home and 8-3 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 106-86 (expected wins is 12 versus historical wins at 10). On pace for 108 wins with 818 runs scored and 663 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.23 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Tough week for the offense this week (batted 0.178 and slugged an anemic 0.281) as they probably faced the second and third best pitching staffs in the National League (Phillies being first).  The starters the Rox faced averaged 13 wins last year (16, 13, 13, 13, 10, 11) and an average WAR of 3.7 (5.1, 2.6, 4.0, 4.3, -0.2, 6.3).  In the previous 15 games they faced average wins of 9 and a WAR of 2.2.  Brutal week and to think they had a chance to be no hit 3 out of the 6 games.  Positive from all of this?  Yeah they had a chance to finish the week at 3-3, had it not been a blown relief appearance on Sunday.  Rox get a break this week going to Chicago and then having Pittsburgh come to Denver.

Coors Canaveral
Found this site the other day, Hit Tracker, and it is full of little sweet home run nuggets.  Too bad it only goes back to 2007 but it is a start.  Some data:


Interesting to see that some of these homers are off some hall of famers!  I give Ryan are time but man he can turn on some pitches...Spilly! Spilly!


Average home run distance from current and past Rox.  Holliday was a monster and for as much grief as we give Iannetta but when he connects...WOW.


What about an infamous stat and how far do our pitchers give up the long ball...


And finally just for my curiosity, when the wind is blowing where do the average homers go? Blowing left to right (7-9) (bullpen balls).  Curious to see the in from left field (I-7) although I can understand out to right (O-9)?

4.24.2011

Comic Splat

The Amazing Spider-Man #658
Fantastic Spidey?
New team, new suit, same old lies?
Carlie catching on...

Invincible Iron Man #503
Stark bows to Otto
Saves City, makes deal with Thor
Build a new Asgard

Avengers #12
Infinity gems
Doctor Strange trusts in magic
Iron Man trust the team

4.20.2011

Haiku Wednesday

Grass

It's Spring renewal
Snow melts, sunshine, instant growth
Shucks, now have to mow

4.18.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 6-1 week against the Mets and Cubs. The Rox currently stand at 12-3. Four game lead in the division. Currently 5-2 at home and 7-1 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 85-59 (expected wins is 10 versus historical wins at 7). On pace for 130 wins with 918 runs scored and 637 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.44 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Wow what a start!  Team is certainly clicking on all cyclinders.  The offense, starting pitching, and bullpen have all played a part in making this the best start in franchise history.  Now I don't think this team is that good.  They have had some luck but good teams do make their own breaks but the parts are their for this team to keep it going over the long haul. 

Offensive good things:  Herrera, Tulo, Helton, Smith, and Iannetta.  OK but not great:  Lopez, CarGo, and Fowler.  Red Flags:  Wiggington and Stewart.  At this rate I think Stewart will get sent down and third will go to Lopez and Wiggington especially with Herrera fast start.  But of the three 3rd basemen someone has to click...I hope.

Starting pitching good things:  Chacin, Reynolds, Rogers.  OK but not great:  U-Ball and de la Rosa.  Red Flags:  Hammel.  Hammel has looked awful this April and just looks uncomfortable.  Overall the starters have done what is expected...keep the team in the game...work some innings...and leave it to the bullpen.

Bullpen good things:  Belisle, Betancourt, Linstrom, and Street (sort of although I don't think he ever likes a Save unless he loads the bases).  OK but not great:  Reynolds and Morales.  Red Flags:  Paulino.  Paulino's transition is not going so well...does not come in and close the door...something to work on.


Home Runs, Home Runs
Denver Post had an interesting little tidbit about how the Rox are hitting more home runs this year with runner's on base compared to last year.  Obviously making such a statement 15 games into the year is like saying the Rox are on pace (and believing) they will win 130 games this year.  Chart below shows the percentage of HR hit with runners on versus the total for that season (solid red line is winning percentage for that year).  So for instance in 2010, Rox hit 173 dingers and of those 78 had ducks on the pond and 95 were solo shots.  The average over the 18 years was about 44% so yeah so far in 2011 of the 18 homers hit, 10 have been with runners on.  Do I expect this to continue?  Probably not nor do I believe this is the reason the Rox are 12-3 but it is a nice stat bit.
In doing this study I also looked at two out homers.  To me a two out homer is a gotta be demoralizing to the other team.  Getting so close to that final out and then giving it up...again red line is winning percentage.


4.16.2011

Robert Heinlein - The Door Into Summer

Completely read on a plane trip from Jacksonville, FL to Denver on Southwest taking me to Houston and Tulsa the only thing that was fun about it was that it took place (or at least the critical part) in Boulder. 

Not one of his best but Heinlein all the way...


4.14.2011

F. Scott Fitzgerald - This SIde of Paradise

Somewhere I was reading about the magic that was F. Scott Fitzgerald and having read The Great Gatsby years ago I thought maybe I should read some more. 

Have to admit I was bit disappointed with my second go at Fitzgerald.  Tough book to get into and through.  I though narcism was a 21st century thing but no it existed back in the roaring 20s too. 

Have to admit it is tough to read a book where the character means nothing to you or if you can't relate to the character or any of the characters in the book.  That was my biggest problem with this book.

4.13.2011

Haiku Wednesday

Taxes

Short term memory
Helps to just pay and forget
Joys of modern life

4.12.2011

Happy Yuri Day

50 years ago man first slipped the surly bonds of Earth. At the time, mostly a stunt, mankind moved forward into venturing into another realm. I am always amazed when studying history how one can lose sight of the dates between events. Often times this is simply because nothing exciting happened in those intervening years. I mean Columbus discovered(?) the new world in 1492 and yet the first colonies in America weren't established until the 1600s. It took hundred years for man to just cross an ocean so while it has been 50 years since we left Earth it might take another 50 years before we do so regularly and with reason...

Great article from Mary Roach...love the comment about pinching the Queen...classic

4.11.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was

A 5-1 week against the Dodgers and Pittsburgh. The Rox currently stand at 6-2. One and half game lead in the division. Currently 3-1 at home and 3-1 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 41-27 (expected wins is 5 versus historical wins at 3). On pace for 122 wins with 830 runs scored and 547 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.52 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

What can you say?  Nice two game sweep of the Dodgers and a good first outting on the road.  Other than that I got nothing.

World of Baseball1)  Manny
Manny announced his retirement this week after supposedly failing another drug test.  Hard to believe a player is that stupid or so egotastical to think that MLB wouldn't find it again.  To me Manny is all that is good and bad in baseball.  The good was his ability to hit a baseball and the bad was his attitude.  The good was his days winning world championships for the Red Sox and the bad was his quitting on the team that gave him that opportunity.  The good was his goofiness and the bad was his defense.

My first game at Fenway was June 11, 2004 and the Red Sox were playing the Dodgers.  The game was 1-0 in the top of the ninth when Manny made a bone head play in Left allowing the tying run score.  Of course in the bottom Ortiz made up for Manny's mistake but I will always remember how silly Manny looked tyring to catch the ball.  My final memory was him striking out has a Dodger and soon after that being traded.  It is a shame that such a great player will be a footnote in the Hall of Fame.  All the talent in the world and yet not a lot of real world smarts.

2) New York Times Magazine - Phillies Article
Awesome article about the magic that is pitching...

3) Fenway 99th Opening Day
And finally Fenway will celebrate its 100th opening day next year...amazing!

4.09.2011

Source Code

Source Code is Duncan Jones second movie (?).  Being the son of David Bowie must be daunting but he has been able to cut out a niche in the film world without really reeling in any father favors.  His first big time movie, Moon, was creepy good and his sophomore effort, while stealing a lot of different movies, makes it his own. 

Hard to make a main stream sci-fi film which is actually fun to watch.  While the circular logic can make you go batty thinking about it, I enjoy at least being challenged when watching a movie.  Good stuff.

4.07.2011

Comic Splat

The Amazing Spider-Man #657
Johnny Storm Tribute
A Touching look at two friends
Spidey joins the team

Avengers #11
Uatu the Watcher
Mind gem lost by Xavier
Uh it's Thanos

Fear Itself #1
It's Sin's prophecy
Brings forth Hammer of Skadi
And the Gods have left

4.06.2011

Haiku Wednesday

Buds

Plant tranformations
Nature awakes from slumber
Bees start their Spring Dance

4.04.2011

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 1-1 week against the D-Backs. The Rox currently stand at 1-1. One game back from division leading LA in third place. Currently 1-1 at home and 0-0 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 9-8 (expected wins is 1 versus historical wins at 1). On pace for 90 wins with 729 runs scored and 648 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.13 (1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

Not much to say after two games.  Just to say that 1) Tulo will get a hit, 2) U-Ball won't have too many more 1 strike out games, and 3) Home Runs will come!

Odds and Ends
Found MLB payroll chart in the newspaper today and was a bit surprised to see our Rox so high.  Ranked 14th we find ourselves right below Texas with a payroll of $92,299,265 and right above Atlanta at $87,003,192 (bit surprising there).  Rox come in at $87,998,071.  Yanks lead the league at $201,689,030 and KC is at the bottom with a payroll of $36,126,400 (Yikes!).  Does the baseball model work?  Does anyone in the right mind believed Royals can compete with a payroll of $36 million?  I mean players make more than this!

Five Questions: Colorado Rockies at Hardball Times there is a paragraph which states:

"In his evaluation of park factors, Dave Studeman pointed out that we should not place our faith in one year’s worth of data in determining park effects, but he also pointed out that the increase in home runs at Coors Field in 2010 could be signaling several things. Either the data used to anoint the humidor as the answer to home runs didn't use a large enough sample size (years) to make an accurate determination of its success or that 2010’s 1.50 home run ratio was an aberration, and we can expect a correction soon. Either way the jury must still be out on whether treating baseballs like a Cohiba is really working."


Not for sure what the 1.50 home run ratio is but the graph below shows both Rox and opponents home runs summed divided by 81 games to give a home run rate per game.  As you can see since 2002 this rate has decreased quite a lot since the 'roid era.  Now of course this rate could have decreased because of drug testing or better home pitching from the Rox but I do think something has changed...whether it is the humidor or not (?)