8.31.2010

Billboards Against Obama? WTF

Seen on a billboard in Georgia today:

"God is not a Socialist"

Which got me thinking what is a socialist. Wikipedia defines socialism as, "Socialism is an economic and political theory advocating public or common ownership and cooperative management of the means of production and allocation of resources." OK so when people go to church and decide to give "X" amount of money to the church each week on Sunday what exactly do they think they are doing? Besides thinking it will help them get to heaven, they are basically redistributing wealth to give to the poor or the needy. Of course if I was God, I'd be angry being labeled anything! I'm God!

Just something to think about...oh and what is a Consumer Economics degree? Isn't that balancing your checkbook? What is this country coming to?

Rant Over

8.29.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 5-1 week against the Braves and Dodgers. The Rox currently stand at 68-61. Eight games back from division leading San Diego in third place and four and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 43-21 at home and 25-40 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 605-564 (expected wins is 69 versus historical wins at 61). On pace for 85 wins with 760 runs scored and 708 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.07 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).
What to make of this team? Just when I've given up, just when I think they are done (lose two to Arizona), they claw back into it (sweep the Braves, two of three against Dodgers). I mean since the All Star Break they took a nose dive (see graph above), then become a see-saw (win one, lose one), and then have a marvelous homestand. Couple of weeks ago I moaned about the killer schedule the Rox had to face down the stretch. What I didn't consider was maybe this was a benefit. As of August 7th, Rox were 26 - 26 against teams with a losing record (thanks to TroyRenck's twitter for that piece of info). Maybe Rox just play to their competition. If that is the case, then our Rox are going to be on fire the rest of the way. This week will certainly define September as our Rox stop in San Fran for three, come home for one against the Phillies, and then finish the week in San Diego.

Who knows but at the end of this week Rox could move ahead of Giants, Cards, and Phillies and find themselves leading the Wild Card. Maybe 2010 won't be a footnote but something special. I know this, if Rox do make the playoffs, CarGo should be a huge MVP favorite.

Seventh Inning
With 126 games in the books, we have completed the 7th 18 game stretch. CarGo made his presence felt in a huge way. Rox starter's have come back to Earth. They have really struggled since the All Star break. Jimenez has really struggled and has unable to win number 18. He will really struggle to get to 20 at this rate. Real question is will our bullpen's arms fall off if we do in fact make the playoffs?

8.25.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Hike

We seek to explore
World of cube farms and cell phones
A chance to be free

8.23.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 2-4 week against the Dodgers and D-Backs. The Rox currently stand at 63-60. Eleven games back from division leading San Diego in third place and seven games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 38-20 at home and 25-40 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 566-534 (expected wins is 65 versus historical wins at 58). On pace for 83 wins with 745 runs scored and 703 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.06 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).
Big changes afoot in the Rocky Mountains. Amazing to think that on July 11, the Rox found themselves two game out of first place in the West. Had they won that day they could have entered the All Star break tied for first. Unfortunately the Rox have suffered through a disappointing 14 - 21 stretch that has taken them from two out to eleven out and basically out of the playoffs. While the road trip from hell (gee heard that before) ended the hopes of the division title, there was still hope that Rox could squeak into the playoffs. Unfortunately I think with the latest trip and two losses to the basement dwellers D-Backs, I think at this point the Rox need to look to the future.

Interesting to wonder if the Rox age finally caught up with them? Hawpe, Helton, Giambi, Olivo, Barmes, and even Spilly are all over 30. It is rare that a player that can still tie em up and be consistent at this game when they hit that magic number of 30. I imagine the daily grind, the aches and pains can lead to performance issues as a player ages.

As a fan I am hugely disappointed by the 2010 season but perhaps this downturn could lead the way to a better 2011. Imagine had the Rox won the division, what would the management done? Probably took Hawpe's option, made an offer to Olivo, and took on Barmes for a few more years. With the current situation as it is, I think the outcome could be beneficial. This downturn allows management to justify ridding the team of older talent and heavy contracts. In 2011 young talent will get a shot and Rox won't have to take on any longer term contracts. A younger team could lead to a great 2011 (and 2009 and 2007, see a pattern?).

In the end moving on is always tough. Hate to see players move on when the team isn't performing because the assumption was that the player's moving on were the reason for the team's distress. But the fact remains that very few player's can be productive and so with the downturn we can effectively jettison these older player's without the need to add to payroll. Cruel but a small market's way of life. Rox can't afford to waste money. Graph below shows our aging veterans and their wOBA against the lead average. Would you sign any of these players long term?


75 Percent Done
With 120 games in the books that means the Rox are 75 percent of the way through the 2010 campaign. Graph below shows projections at the 3/4 mark compared to the other previous quarters. The solid graph is the average projections at the start of the season.

CarGo still having a monster year scoring a whole bunch of runs. Everyone else but Olivo is under expectations. Hawpe and Iannetta (granted they haven't played a lot of games) the Rox just aren't scoring runs. They are on pace to score 60 - 70 runs below expectations!

On the other hand the pitching has been pretty decent.

8.18.2010

Haiku Wednesday

School

Paper and pencil
Yellow buses and teachers
Summer goes to fast

8.16.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 3-3 week against the Mets and Brewers. The Rox currently stand at 61-56. Eight and half games back from division leading San Diego in third place and five games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 38-20 at home and 23-36 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 558-517 (expected wins is 63 versus historical wins at 55). On pace for 84 wins with 773 runs scored and 716 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.08 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

On a week vacation with no computer, I have to admit that I was kind of glad to get away from the daily baseball grind. In my absence the Rox really didn't do anything spectacular and based on the figure above it was pretty much a give and take kind of week. Think I have to agree with Woody Paige on his article today in the Post although I don't think his reasoning that it went down this way because the Rox did nothing at the trade deadline holds a lot of water. Really there was nothing out there that would have solved the hair pulling frustration that is the Rox on the road. Why was it in '07 and '09 that the Rox could win 39 and 41 games respectively but in '08 and '10, the Rox could only squeeze 31 and 32 (projected) wins?

The chances for a Roxtober repeat at this stage are pretty slim. With the Giants, Cardinals, and Phillies all ahead of the Rox for the Wild Card and with San Diego's unbelievable pace not letting up, I think even a magical September run would be tough especially with road trips to LA (6 games), Arizona (6 games), San Fran (3 games), San Diego (3 games), and St Louis (4 games) remaining. Only Arizona has a losing record and we have a 5-4 record against them this year. With 45 games remaining even if we split the remaining road games (11-11), Rox would have to win 18 of the remaining 23 home games just to get to 90 wins and this is against division leading Atlanta (3 games), Los Angeles (6 games), division leading Cincinnati (4 games), Arizona (3 games), Philadelphia (1 game), division leading Padres (3 games), and Wild Card leading Giants (3 games). San Diego is projected to win 96 games while San Fran is projected at 91. Miracle runs have been made before but Rox would have to go 30 - 15 just to tie San Fran for the Wild Card and Rox schedule down the stretch is brutal. If trends go like they have then the even number years stink for the Rox and they play well in the odd years so here is to 2011!

Sixth Inning
With 108 games in the books, we have completed the 6th 18 game stretch. This stretch was ugly including the 2-9 road trip. Offensive numbers were skewed in that Rox scored 17 at home against the Cubs during one game. When Herrera is your clutch hitter for the stretch you have to know your offense didn't do a whole lot!

8.15.2010

Dan Ariely - Predictably Irrational

As with the other books (mostly the Malcolm Gladwell books), these type of books make you question your decisions and also make you go hmmm. Which is a good thing mostly. Fascinating to see how predictable your decisions can be. Entertaining book.

As with any context the author, Don Ariely, explains that his book is because, "I have been told by many people that I have an unusual way of looking at the world."

Quote from Woody Allen, "The most expensive sex is free sex" - Yup pretty true ;)

"When we mix social and monetary norms, strange and undesirable things can happen." Basically don't pay your neighbor to help out...as soon as money is brought into play it changes the entire game.

"My own approach is to try to view all transactions (particularly large ones) as if I were a non owner, putting some distance between myself and the item of interest." Hard to do...

"But even stranger is our compulsion to chase after doors of little worth - opportunities that are nearly dead, or that hold little interest for us" Something we could all really work towards. Hard to shut that door!

Joshua Bell experiment (thought I had blog about this before but guess not, incredible experiment in context)

"But even when offered $50, only 19 percent of passerby stopped and took a bill" Amazing how cautious we have become and how we are always looking at what is the catch...

"In essence, individuals more concerned with portraying their own uniqueness were more likely to select an alcoholic beverage not yet ordered at their table in an effort to demonstrate that they were in fact one of a kind. ...,people particularity those with a high need for uniqueness may sacrifice personal utility in order to gain repetitional utility." God I've done this so many times and regretted drinking some god awful beer just to impress with my individuality! Arghhhhh

Summer Vacation 2010

The Rockland Harbor Lighthouse. Interesting because it sticks out on what I think is a man made walkway into the harbor?
Not our boat but a sister ship to the Nathanial Bowditch. Beautiful ships.

Beautiful sunset (and our boat) after the first day on the boat and lobster in our bellies. Ended up sleeping on the deck every night because of the chill Maine air. Stars were everywhere. Amazing what you can see when it is dark outside. The next night was a meteor shower and there were some amazing rocks burning up in our atmosphere. Memorable journey and trust me the water in late August is still freaking cold! Burrrrrr


8.14.2010

Mary Roach - Packing for Mars

"To the rocket scientist, you are the problem." Yup but where would the fun be? Fascinating book and a must for any Astronaut wannabe. Having read just about everything related to the astronaut program I found this book to be every bit refreshing as anything I have read before. A lot of new interesting insights. Not so much related to actual spaceflight but a lot of on the ground research that was done to get man to the moon. I mean in the 50s scientists thought that without gravity the body would shut down! Also thought the lunar lander would sink into couple feet of dust too. So much for being a scientist.
Overall a fantastic read (who knew people were paid to lie prone for months on end to determine the effects of bone loss). Highly recommend it.

8.11.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Weeds

Grounds Keeper nightmare
They are sneaky, fast growing
My yard welcomes them :(

8.04.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Farmer's Market

It's locally grown
Food nurtured with love and care
Yummy, fresh, juicy...

8.03.2010

Haruki Murakami - Hard Boiled Wonderland and the End of the World

"The elevator continued its impossibly slow ascent."

Of all the books I have read by Murakami, this one by far is the most off the wall one yet. It is always interesting to see where his books take you. The back cover summary is always so by the book. It seems so normal, so unassuming, and then you get into it and wow it is just takes you on a wild ride.

I thought this was just a normal read with Murakami unusual bits thrown in but this one just started strangely and kept going. It is almost science fiction.

In the end it was a good read and I enjoyed it. Again for a male author his romantic scenes are by far the most exotic I have read and doesn't seem forced like other male authors. Murakami is best at creating really good characters and really throwing them into unusual situations. Again it would be great to read his books in his native language...


8.02.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 4-3 week against the Pirates and Cubs. The Rox currently stand at 55-50. Seven games back from division leading San Diego in third place and five and half games behind in the Wild Card chase. Currently 35-19 at home and 20-31 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 509-465 (expected wins is 57 versus historical wins at 49). On pace for 85 wins with 785 runs scored and 717 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.09 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

The hangover from the dismal road trip held its grip for the first two games at home this past week. Losing two to the road awful Pirates didn't help matters but Rox got healthy against the Cubs. Wacky series with the Cubs. On Friday night, the Rox scored 12 runs in the 8th, hitting 11 consecutive hits and turning a 5-2 nail biter to a 17-2 laugher. Then on Saturday after giving up the lead in the 8th, CarGo comes in and hits a monster shot in the right field upper deck (only 29th time it has happened) to lift the Rox to a win and becoming the 6th Rox to hit for a cycle (Note: Tulo did the same thing to the Cubs last year!). So with the trade deadline pass the Rox have two months to get it together and make a run. It won't be easy as the Rox sit 3rd in the division and are behind two other teams in the Wild Card.

Trade Deadline
Another deadline and the Rox management once again surveyed the market and decided that standing pat was the right thing to do? Kizla, which I must admit that I am frightened that I agree with him so much lately, finds that the Colorado baseball fans don't hold Rox management to the same set of standards as they do with the rest of the Colorado sports scene. While I agree that Rox could use some constructive criticism at times I do think they made the right decision not trading the farm for a rental player. While the rest of the division were making deals, Rox found themselves once again looking in the window wishing they could be part of the deal making. Ultimately though there just wasn't enough out there (really don't think Dunn was the answer) and with next years questions especially with Helton; created a situation where the Rox just couldn't deal.

Rumors had the Rox trying to deal Cook and Hawpe, two players who have become high priced old men. Baseball can be cruel game when your talents no longer match your salary which tends to happen when you reach your late 20s and talent has passed you by. Cook, Rox all time win leaders, is the second highest paid Rox and has only 4 wins. Of course the highest paid Rox is trying to find his legs in Cheyenne and with real doubts, the Rox couldn't release Hawpe, needing a younger 1B next year possibly.



As the graph of total bases shows above, the Rox really lag with big bats in the middle of the lineup (hmmm CarGo, Helton, Hawpe anyone?). It would have been nice to find something but I really don't think there was much out there. Rox offense at times has shown some real potential. Unfortunately a 2-9 road trip with an anemic offense is the counter to this argument. With that said what can we expect with 57 games remaining? Or will the apathy continue to reign in the Mile High baseball world?