7.31.2010

Inception

OK first there is this representation:


then this one:


And to my mind they are both wrong. My thought is that the Plane is actually Level One and all that is shown above is simply the MacGuffin to get Cobb well again (i.e. to stop mourning his wife and returning to life so that he can raise his kids). Of course if this is true then at the end of the movie the top doesn't stop. But if you believe above, then the top would stop.

Another reason I thought Cobb was still in the dream at the end is that in other dreams he would see his kids but they never would turn around. At the end when he is finally over his wives passing he can finally finish that dream and in fact the kids do turnaround to face their daddy. Of course the costume designer did let slip that the children's outfits were different thus probably indicating that Cobb was in fact not in a dream but I'm sticking with my convoluted thought. And Han Solo shoots first and Deckard is a replicant, so there!

Great movie by the way, it will receive my highest honor which is purchasing the DVD!

7.28.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Mosquito

Shoo don't bother me
World's most annoying creature
No love for the bug

7.27.2010

Silversun Pickups Concert

Fabulous, high energy show. Great to see bands play live and let their songs be taken over in a live setting. Those different guitar riffs and solos that add to the song what the musician is really feeling. Overall a nice tight show, only one song was kind of blah but I think it was mostly to let the group catch its collective breath before the end songs and encore. Glad I finally saw them live only wish I could see them again rather than possibly waiting another 2 - 3 years for them to find themselves back in Denver.


7.26.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 1-6 week against the Marlins and Phillies. The Rox currently stand at 51-47. Seven and half games back from division leading San Diego in fourth place. Currently 31-16 at home and 20-31 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 461-433 (expected wins is 52 versus historical wins at 46). On pace for 84 wins with 762 runs scored and 716 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.06 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

And that my friends is the season. It is time to face facts that with this disastrous road trip the Rox are no longer in contention. With 64 games remaining, seven and half games out, three teams ahead in the standings it would require the Rox to go 39 - 25 down the stretch to get to 90 wins. MLB playoff odds stand at 7.1 which is the lowest all season. The simple fact is that we are running out of games and Padres aren't making it any easier. Padres at 58 - 39 only have to go 32 - 33 to win 90. Meanwhile Rox are only 4.5 out in the Wild Card but again being 4th in our own division it makes it tough to leap frog all of these teams.

Because of this I think the management really needs to build for next year instead. Time to rid the team of Hawpe, Iannetta, and maybe Rodgers to bring in a some more offense. See below for some information. Rox need to realize that good teams consistency win and that winning teams don't just go on 20 games wins to squeak into the playoffs. Rox need to be consistent winners. Nose dives like this last road trip just show how much the Rox really lack that playoff drive. Sure the Rox are a good team but they just seem to be lacking something...

Winning Percentage versus Offense Prowess
It would seem that the pundits are claiming what the Rox are missing is some offense power. It has been highlighted that hitting with runner's in scoring position has been dismal. Well what does the data show? The figure below shows home runs by teams versus their winning percentage. The darker blots are the division leading teams and the purple dot is the Rox.

Not a lot of correlation between winning and hitting homers. The next figure shows slugging percentage versus winning percentage. Data shows a bit better correlation. From this figure it would suggest the Rox are slugging fine. Perhaps some more pop but Rox aren't that far off.

And finally the final figure shows how often baserunners score. While this is not specifically batting average with runner's in scoring position it does show how teams bat when there is a runner on base. From the figure below it would seem that teams that score runner tend to win more...duh! Either way Rox don't seem to be in that bad of position. They are least in the top half. At 0.146 (351 runs scored with 2388 at bats with runner's on base), Rox are above the league average of 0.143.
So either way I don't think the Rox aren't winning because they can't drive runs in. More important is that they aren't scoring when it counts...a study for a later day...

7.24.2010

William Gibson - Neuromancer

Neuromancer is celebrating its 25th year in print. A ground breaking novel in 1985 (actually came out in '84) it beckoned a new realm of science fiction and is often quoted as being the source for cyberspace. I read it as a recommendation from a friend back in high school. This book and the two later novels was probably my most liked books. Gibson was one of my top favorite authors. When the Difference Engine came out I instantly got it in hard back only to be disappointed in its scope. Later in the 2000s, Gibson came out with his San Fran books and they just didn't have the same edge as the Neuromancer books. It was disappointing to see a writer try and regain his form. His books in the late 2000s got a bit better and Spook Country was actually quite good.

Being 25 years since I read it (I was probably 16 at the time), I decided to read it electronically on my iPad (symbolism you know). Overall I thought it held up quite well. It doesn't seem too dated and it still has its quirkiness about it. Picked up some more broader things this go around as a youth probably doesn't see some bigger picture items. I enjoyed it and glad to see a book that I once love still being a desirable read (unlike The Number of the Beasts).

7.23.2010

Bryan O'Malley - Scott Pilgrim's Finest Hour

And so ends the (mis)adventures of one Scott Pilgrim. Fabulous series and sorry to see it end. Just like with Harry Potter when the story finds its end it is somewhat bittersweet. Glad to know the rest of the story but sad to know there will be no more adventures.
Overall the story, for me, really didn't capture the essence that was in the first 5 books. Of course maybe the uniqueness wasn't there because I knew what to expect. I read the first five books in about a week. Probably why you should start a series when the entire story is told so you don't have to wait 9 months for the story to end.
Love the Scott and Ramona! Young Neil too

7.22.2010

Byran O'Malley - Lost At Sea

While in England, I was jones-ing for the last Scott Pilgrim to come out and while browsing in the comic book store I came across one of his earlier works. One can definitely see some stabs at what was to become Scott Pilgrim. Quick little read, nothing earth shattering but I did think the quote below was awesome:

"Every time you look up at the stars, it's like opening a door. You could be anyone, anywhere. You could be yourself at any moment in your life. You open that door and you realize your're the same person under the same stars. Camping out in the backyard with your best friend, eleven years old. Sixteen, driving alone, stopping at the edge of the city, looking up at the same stars. Walking a wooded path, kissing in the moonlight, look up and you're eleven again. Chasing cats in a tiny town, you're eleven again, you're sixteen again. You're in a rowboat. You're staring out the back of a car. Out here where the world begins and ends, it's like nothing ever stops happening."

7.21.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Yard Work

My Homeowners Hell
Manicured is meant for nails
Not my property

7.20.2010

England Day 13

The Order of Cistercians kirkstall abbey
I miss Americanized chocolate.


A lot of sheep

7.19.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 1-2 week against the Reds. The Rox currently stand at 50-41. Four games back from division leading San Diego in second place. Currently 31-16 at home and 19-25 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 434-396 (expected wins is 49 versus historical wins at 42). On pace for 89wins with 773 runs scored and 705 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.10 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

With 90 games in the books, we have completed the 5th 18 game stretch. This stretch we really won some games we didn't deserve especially against St Louis. We should have only one eight but with these wins are record is more in line with expected W/L record. Rox certainly scored a lot of runs this stretch but also gave up a lot. Starting pitching kind back to earth yet the bullpen kept the team in there allowing the offense to win a few. Fowler came back with a vengeance, guess he didn't like Colorado Springs all that much (me neither!).



All Star Game and Second Half Start
Relatively quiet All Star game. The Year of the Pitcher continues. Jimenez make the Rox look good going two innings. Nothing flashy just a well pitched two innings. The National League went on to win after McCann's double plated the winning runs. Interesting side note was that many believe McCann wasn't deserving of an All Star nod (and thus wins the MVP award). So if things had played out, it could have been Olivo in there and then what would have happened? Hopefully the same result which still would have brought the National League home field advantage. So with Jimenez starting the All Star game, I wondered how many pitchers started an All Star game and then went on to start Game 1 of the World Series. Quite a few actually as the table below shows. The last was 1998 with David Wells. Also in 1939 both All Star pitchers wound up pitching Game One of the Series.


With 74 games remaining what needs to happen for the Rox to make the playoffs?

1) Jimenez and Hammel need to continue pitching lights out. De La Rosa needs to get back into the grove and Cook or Francis need to find some innings.
2) Consistent bullpen with Betancourt and Street closing down the 8th and 9th inning.
3) Healthy Tulo return
4) Line up consistency
5) Helton riding the bench and whoever at first gaining some production

Right now I think the team is borderline playoff material. They have shown some instances of being a good team but inconsistency between the pieces (one day good pitching, no hitting, one day hitting but bad bullpen...) has kept this team from gaining on the Padres. I think at this point we can safely say the wheels aren't going to fall off the Padres so Rox need to start winning, a lot! No Wild Card, let's be greedy and win the West!

7.18.2010

Tim Kurkjian - Is This a Great Game, or What?

"It is the best game."

I like Tim's analysis although he definitely does not have a voice for radio! Anyone who appreciates baseball will get a read from me. While the book itself is interesting, the shot gun approach of just weaving story after story doesn't really come across all that well. It would be much more exciting to be sitting at a bar and hearing the little tidbits of baseball lore. The one chapter that did grab my attention was about Baseball Signs. I think that could be a book in of itself...and probably could use some further analysis?

Loved this quote about the now Rockies reliever,

"The day I saw Joe Beimel pitch in high school, the shortstop on his team was a girl."

And finally from the department of I didn't know that, "Rickey Henderson bats right handed but throws left handed. Only four nonpitchers in MLB history have played 1,000 games batting right and throwing left."

7.17.2010

England Day 10

Day 10

Driving is easier. Don't listen to the annoying GPS. Some people claim they love their GPS voice. I find the British Woman's voice to be ghastly. Her directions are terrible and frankly if I had a real map I would shove it down her throat ;). I am not a fan of GPSing.

Visited a local comic book shop and it was quite nice. I have been surprised by overall quality of Britain's comic community. I did not know what to expect but availability and title quantity have met or exceeded any shop in the States. The hole in the wall I found today had a small back issue selection and lots of TPBs. I picked up one of Bryan O'Malley's first work, Lost at Sea, because unfortunately Book 6 doesn't arrive until Tuesday. Stores here close early so I don't know how I am going to find the last Scott Pilgrim book! Final note on the comic scene is that it is interesting that most of the actual comics are America based. I don't even know if a comic publisher is even available here. Lot of great writers have come from here but they seem to write for the Big Two. Interesting that something so American has found a home here in England.

For being in the land of pubs and what not I have certainly drank my fair share of Stella Artois! Go figure. The choices are either heavy British ales or piss color beers. Now if the pubs had ESPN and decent food I might be persuaded to go to one more often. I have not taken any advantage of any food options here. I have eaten in a lot basically because most restaurants seem kind of fancy and I hate eating alone. Seems to be a lot of Italian and India. I did eat at a Burrito place last night for dinner. The Brits don't understand shredded cheese or salsa. Pretty bland but it was interesting none the less. I think Brits think of India when they want spicy, not Mexican! I have found a decent pizza place though. Very Proto's like.

Tonight was the first night since I have been here that it was clear and I could see the moon and stars. Lots of rain. Amazing fact is again how light it stays. I went running at 9:30 and it was still dusk. I then headed out looking for beer at 10 PM and it was still pretty light. In my quest for a grocery store, the youngsters were once again out and about looking for a party. Women here are always to be found in large groups. I rarely ever see any men. I wonder exactly what these ladies do when they go clubbing? Tonight was interesting in that it was dress up night or something. One large gaggle of women were all dressed up in various Disney female characters! Very bizarre. In addition I understand where disco/pop/fusion comes from or why it exists and that is British dance clubs. Good golly I couldn't tell you one place in Denver where you could go dancing but here there seems to be bass pumping music everywhere!

Music here is definitely interesting. The music store I went to today was hopping. Tons of shoppers and yet the radio stations here are awful, absolutely awful. During my drive I can't find anything of interest. I ended up buying some CDs just so I have something to listen to! Although it should be noted that the other morning while driving on the cart path they call back roads, Sweet Home Alabama came on the radio and it actually made me smile and appreciate where I live (well appreciate that I live in the States, not Alabama particularly ;).

Guess the thing I miss the most is just the daily baseball grind. Obviously it is not background noise here and I find that discomforting. I enjoy the daily interference.

7.16.2010

Predators

The original was simply a classic 80s summer action flick. I remember seeing it, being enthralled for 2 hours, and walking out loving what was done. My highest honor to any film is to actually buy the DVD which I did a few years back when it came out with a special edition.

Since then the predator franchise has been hit with a bunch of mediocre crap. The sequel was just a blur (remember the sequel to the Highlander, yeah just like that) and painful to watch. Although it did have the greatest easter egg in any film and that was showing the Alien skull in the ship. Because of that teaser we had to settle for two awful Aliens Predators flicks (OK full disclosure, I never saw them).

So finally Predators comes out this summer trying to add some sheen to the franchise and taking the model that work in the 80s as it attempts to assemble a cast of characters to fight the Predators. While overall it is an OK action flick, has elements of excitement, but ultimately gets lost in an ugly script and characters that really can't hold the jock of the original crew. Now that team had comic book size characters. WHAM BOOM POW. So another movie can be added to the junk pile of retreads and sequels...thankfully Empire Strikes Back, T2, and Aliens can let us fans dream that sequels can be better than the original.


7.15.2010

England Day 8

More observations:

- Traffic lights go red/yellow before turning green.
- England has terrazzo Falcons!
- No wash clothes, no hand soap, and no roll on antiperspirant
- It is very hard to drive without a double yellow line! Driving here is always an adventure
- Interestingly England has some good electricity savers...lights automatically turn off in hallways and all outlets require you to turn them on to get power
- I saw Falcon Crest on TV...no wonder Brits think America is weird, everything they know about us is what they see on their TV
- It rains a lot in Northern England
- Brits don't believe in refrigerating their milk and eggs? Crazy these products just hand out on the shelves.
- Food here is a real mix bag. India food is their spice kick it up food although it is funny that you do see enchiladas on their shelves.
- Who exacting came up with the school girl outfit and why is it the norm for girls to where these?
- I only assume because it is always gray here that women purposely color their hair in unusual neon like colors?

7.14.2010

Haiku Wednesday

Camp

Time away from home
No parents, junk food galore
I want my mommy...

7.13.2010

I Write Like...

Baseball Blog: James Joyce
Short Stores: Dan Brown or David Foster Wallace

Go Figure

7.12.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 5-1 week against the Cardinals and Padres. The Rox currently stand at 49-39. Two games back from division leading San Diego in second place. Currently 31-16 at home and 18-23 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 430-385 (expected wins is 48 versus historical wins at 41). On pace for 90 wins with 792 runs scored and 709 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.12 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

At the All Star Break, the Rox sit at 49 - 39. A nice July run has put the Rox right on the heels of Padres for the division lead. Had it not been for a late inning bullpen meltdown, the Rox could have been tied with the Padres for the lead at 50 wins. As a fan this season, it has been a bit maddening. We have seen so many individual highlights but we have yet to see the team breakout and just hit and pitch. This latest winning streak has seen the offense breakout of its funk and yet the pitching has disintegrated.

Since Game 67 (35-32), the Rox have seen the projected runs allowed grow from 619 to 709 in 21 games. In that same stretch runs scored has only gone from 730 to 792. The bullpen is obviously tired. This time last year they had pitched only 257.2 innings while this year they have gone 275.1 innings. With Morales and Corpas already in the doghouse, Daley injured, Belisle seeing a ton of innings already, it might make sense for O'Dowd to find that seventh inning specialist from the American League to come in and give some late inning relief. Again I think it will be a quiet trade deadline for our Rox as we really don't have a real deficiency assuming Tulo can come back sooner than later. This will allow Barmes to slink back to second. With de la Rosa back in the fold the Rox are basically getting a new starter. All in all I think what we see on the field now will take us to the playoffs.

Short post this week (All Star Writing Break) and just a quick shutout to Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki for their All Star nods. Plus for all those Pirate fans out there who think their team will never be good again well just think a Colorado pitcher is starting in the All Star Game!If that can happen anything in baseball can happen! What an achievement. Let's hope U-Ball wows like his hero Pedro...

Interesting to note the offensive all stars haven't done much while pitching has done pretty well. An instance that pitching does beat hitting?

7.11.2010

Ben Mezrich - Rigged

"Three-thirty in the morning, maybe closer to four."

As with any other Mezrich book sometimes you have to suspend your belief and realize that sometimes life is wilder than fiction. As with his book about the MIT BlackJack players, this book follows a similar formula in writing about a young Italian getting involved in the world of oil and the NY Mercantile Market. It reads like a movie something like Wall Street of the 80s. Amazing to think of the money some people make in the world. Dubai sounds like Disney World for adults. Would love to visit someday and fly Emirates Airlines...WOW. Unfortunately the real life star of the book doesn't seem to be all that glamorous. It would also suggest your way of life is often dictated by simply being the right person at the right time.


7.10.2010

England Day 4

Day Four started bright (not quite, more predawn) and early as I made a 2.5 hour journey by train into London. Leeds, where I am currently staying, is either a party town or England in general must like going out because at 4:30 AM the clubs around town, were still going and people were still out. Wow to be young and stupid again! Riding backwards all the way into London is always kind of goofy. The countryside reminds me a little bit of Ohio. Rolling hills with livestock and some farms. Towns pop up then dissolve back to countryside. Coming into London was very different from coming into New York City. On the train into NYC you can feel the city gobbling up the train but London just sort of creeps up on you and really doesn't punch you in the face like NYC. Arriving into Kings Cross (a dismal old train station undergoing modifications), I winded my way down into the subway for a trip to Greenwich. Took the Northern Line to Bank and then the "light rail" out to Cutty Sark (not just a drink!). After 3.5 hours of train travel, I finally got to look around and smell the London air! Nice blue sky summer day, the city was a bit quiet at this hour (8:30ish). The London skyline is not like what you see in the States. It is a bit more subdue and probably represents the old world whereas the new world's ego built skyscraper's to prove a point. Greenwich is southeast of London proper and it is the home of the Royal Observatory. So besides it being a geek place to visit it just happens to be where 0 degrees Longitude resides. Proof that winners write history the British Empire mark on the world is that the Observatory is where Longitude finds its home. Below you can see me straddling both the Eastern and Western hemispheres...

Fascinating place and interesting to think that the reason Britain became the sea power was because it could effectively navigate the world better than anyone else at the time. Just goes to show what a little governmental sponsored research can do (of course that research also developed the atom bomb). After this brief excursion, I headed back towards the city to see the tourist sights. Took the light rail back to Bank (which is basically a subway station under the London Bank) and headed towards the River Thames. I pride myself with directional awareness but trust me, being dumped out into the middle of the City trying to determine which way to head...yeah right! Eventually found my way and headed towards the Tate Modern Museum. No real reason other than to say I did something cultural! Interesting building. In my opinion modern art is mostly a US mainstay and therefore my guess is that the majority of it is found in our museums rather than the rest of the world. Nothing overly impressive. Finishing the whirlwind tour I headed back across the Thames over the Millennium Bridge and right into St Paul's Cathedral.

First off this structure is enormous. According to Wikipedia it was the tallest structure in London until 1962. It is inspiring. Having seen it I remember that the Royal Wedding which my Mom got me up to see year's ago between Charles and Diana was held there. Definitely a highlight of the visit.

After running around in the morning, I decided I needed a break. I sat down in the shade in a nice square and had lunch and a huge bottle of water. Did I mention it was quite warm in London? In the square there was a piano and people would stop and play (hmmm very similar to what they have in Denver right now...wonder if all the mayors are on a mailing list of cool things to do in their city?). Anyway it was amazing to watch the number of kids to sit down and play and not just "chopsticks" but real piano works...hmmm all those piano lessons do matter.

With my energy level back to full (sort of) I launched off to my first non touristy geek thing to do and that is find a comic book store! Forbidden Planet was what came up on Google so off I went. It is funny that when you get off the beaten path, a city really is quiet place. Strolling along without the hustle and bustle of tourist really is quite nice. Along the way I stumbled upon a model shop. The Brits love their scale models of things. Corgi is probably best known in America but I found there to be a whole lot of other companies as well. In America today you have to go to some odd hobby shop to even find a model (toluene glue smell anyone?). Kids today don't build anything anymore with glue! Eventually I stumbled upon the comic store but not before this...

Forbidden Planet was the mother of all things SciFi. Two floors of magnificence. Everything scifi you could imagine. A basement full of scifi books only, piles of new comics, enormous TPB section, manga, movies, and WOW. I could have spent a day just there but as with the rest of this little journey I had more to see and do. Although at this point it was about 1:30 in the afternoon I was at a lost of what to still see. Using my handy dandy Google Maps feature on my BB I realized I wasn't too far from the blackhole that pulls all tourist to London and that is Big Ben. So off I went to see, "Look Kids, Big Ben, Parliament", which by the way is the only memorable thing from the movie European Vacation and trust me the round abouts do suck! Checked off the sights and was glad to be away from all the people. Yikes! Back on the subway and off to see my sports mecca for the trip.

In all honesty I can't tell you why I like the Arsenal Football Club. I have yet to see them play a game and yet I have this strange attraction to them. In one of those strange pattern events I first came upon Arsenal's jersey (errr kit I should say) when they were sponsored by a British cell phone company O2. Being a nerd I got the jersey (O2 is oxygen for you non chemist types). Then around this time Fever Pitch came out which was an Americanized version of a book written by Nick Hornby which is about the English football team, Arsenal. I think the writers of the movie felt the love/hate relationship of the Arsenal followers was similar to that of the Red Sox? Well being a Red Sox fan, I loved the movie, and thus read the book. Book is over the top football and England. A bit difficult for an uneducated American to follow but came away from it understanding a little more about English football love. Either way I continue to remotely follow the team and then suddenly the Colorado MLS soccer team formed a relationship with who? None other than Arsenal, so go figure. So to make a long story short I decided that I should make a visit to Emirates Stadium. Wow what a complex. Raising out of the middle of London suburbs, hmm like Fenway, the stadium is a gazillion dollar home seating 60,000 people. The stadium, built by HoK, is enormous and from the outside looks like your typical American football stadium. It is unfortunate that you can't see the pitch from the outside and it was doubly unfortunate that they don't start play until August.

Their slogan is "Victory through Harmony." It was interesting to see and just walking around you could feel the same sort of fanaticism that any baseball or football team here in the States would have. It is definitely a goal of mine to see an English Premiership match.

After this brief stop (British subways are crazy warm), I found that I had developed heat rash on my ankles! Yikes, so after getting back to Kings Cross I decided to head to the pub for some English Ale and dinner. The pub was in St Pancras which is the international train center right next to Kings Cross. It has finished its refurbishment and it is everything you think of when you think of European train stations. It made me want to jump a train to the mainland!

It was also a great place to watch people. The diversity of London was amazing. Classic imagine was a blond woman in a skirt and heels passing by a Muslim woman in her full body covering. I so wish I had my camera out because I think it is so fitting with the East meeting the West (near Greenwich no less!). At 8 PM, I finally gave up and went home. What an exhausting day. By the time I had gotten home I felt old but was glad to have seen what I saw.

Funny that during WWII the queen had the famous saying of "Keep Calm and Carry On" but I like the modern version "Keep Cool and Chill Out" (which I saw on a T-shirt). And finally who doesn't like dogs on the trains?


7.08.2010

England Day 2

Day Two

Went to my first English Pub. I had fish and chips but some of the menu items (haggis!) sounded awful. Who eats this stuff? Tasted some beers and they were pretty tasty (had a cute little half pint). Ate Mexican tonight or as they call it Latin. Corona's taste better closer to Mexico. Fajitas were tasty but they didn't have any chips and salsa! Food here is expensive. Beers were about $5 each. Funny observations:

- Brits love their little signs. Signs are everywhere and they are tiny and cute.
- Phone companies rule the roost. They are everywhere.
- Subways have some weird sandwiches (fried breaded chicken anyone?)
- Women here love high heels but with the cobblestones I don't get how they get anywhere
- Paper money turns into coins relatively quickly...what to do with a $2 coin?
- Hotel room doesn't have wash clothes or clock
- No roll on deodorant just spray on?

7.07.2010

England Day One

Made it...long overnight flight. Left after an hour and half delay. Actually slept with crying babies and all. Heathrow is a big giant maze. Wow at least after a long flight I got to walk (for like a mile!). Interestingly enough I got biometrically scanned (?) so now I must be in some big face database...wonder why I couldn't sign a privacy notice on that one? Hop, skip, and jump flight from Heathrow to Manchester although it was delayed for over an hour and yet my bag still didn't make it. So lovely to be in England with only the clothes on your back. Lovely feeling...NOT. Got to drive in England...guess I am a moron but I thought everything would be in metric but no everything is miles...duh I guess? Oh yeah creepy foreign dude on the airplane today with a incision almost completely around his head. And does Arabic read right to left as in pages like Japan? Again it was an adventure driving on the wrong side of the road. Not to mention getting stuck with a car that was manual transmission. Talking about completely being baffled, when was the last time you used your left hand to shift gears. Funny thing was I found myself always drifting left. I wonder if it was the car or me? Anyway highway driving is fine...city driving...old English city driving sucks! I will be happy if I don't get an in accident while driving around Leeds. Freaking nightmare!

Haiku Wednesday

Peaches

Fuzzy touch greets you
Lips smack, hear the slurping sound
Yummy juicy good

7.05.2010

Rox Talk

The Week That Was
A 5-2 week against the Padres and Giants. The Rox currently stand at 44-38. Five games back from division leading San Diego in third place. Currently 26-15 at home and 18-23 on the road, the Rox have outscored its opponents 385-348 (expected wins is 45 versus historical wins at 38). On pace for 87 wins with 761 runs scored and 688 runs against. Playoff indicator (Runs scored/Runs Against ratio) is 1.11 (>1.16 indicates high playoff potential).

At the half way point, the Rox sat at 43 - 38. Not a bad place to be but sitting in third place makes it a long road to climb. Thing you have to love about baseball is the unpredictably. I mean I will be honest I didn't even bother thinking about the Padres during the preseason. No one gave them any love and yet here they sit, sixteen games above .500. An amazing first half but can it continue? I am going to say yes because you don't play that kind of ball and just disappear. Will 86 wins make it?

Half Way Point
Back in March I provided an overview of 2010 projections comparing Bill James, Marcels, and CHONE. I added ZiPS later. Each of these projections provided at bats, plate appearances, run scored and wOBA for each hitter and innings pitched, runs allowed, and FIP for each pitcher. Taking each of these data points and averaging them I put together a projection for a Rox projected lineup. Since we passed the halfway game mark, we are approximately halfway through the season so how do the projections stack up to the real data (i.e. CarGo has scored 49 runs this year so far so he is projected to score 98).

The solid bar represents the average of the four projections and the red line is the 1st quarter pace while the blue line is the halfway pace. So above represents that CarGo is on pace for about 30 more runs then what the average projection had him before the start of the season. Obviously Hawpe's injury limited his time so his numbers are low and with Ianetta stuck in AAA he isn't scoring a lot of runs in the big leagues. Interesting to see Tulo still above his projection even though he is injured and all the Barmes haters can shut up and take notice that he has been offensively playing a lot better. The projections don't do the bench players much justice because they assume they will get a lot more starts and thus more runs. Based on this analysis the team is on pace to score 791 runs.
In addition to the hitters the above graph shows the runs allowed for the pitchers. With the pitching flux this year it is hard to get a real feel for what this staff is capable of. U-Ball continues to be amazing albeit more earth like. Hammel is doing well but Francis seems to be hitting a wall after a year off from pitching. Relief pitching seems to be settling in especially with Street back. Team is on pace to only allow 658 runs which would be a new team record. We shall see...

Based on projections the team is headed for about 94 wins but with other stats (WAR and wOBA/FIP) it would seem the Rox are only headed for about 83 wins. Little low to ensure a Wild Card or Division Title but still in the hunt!