12.31.2009

End of a Decade...

Well another year in the books, another orbit around the sun. Good year, I managed to keep up with blog although I only managed 196 posts (due to some intense studying I kind of slacked on the writing) Comic reviews and AF football suffered. Again it was nice to be able to go back and review 2009. I hope to get back to the comic posts. So the final tally:

- 30 books read over 9,000 pages (favorite, "Horse Soldiers" and "Dance Dance Dance")
- Best Comics this Year - Had to be the Scott Pilgrim series

- Best Movie seen was "Hangover"

- Favorite Album - Swoon by Silversun Pickups
- Best Comic Cover was Uncanny X-men #503
- 56 Haiku's Written

My Favorites Haiku's

Shadow

Your doppelganger
Where do they go in the night?
Perhaps they sleep too

Stars

Gazing upon thee
Wonder if someone watches
and Haiku's about us?

Jazz
Saxophone simmers
Base thumps, piano prances
America's song

Top Posts

Top 10 Viewed Features of 2009 on NYTimes.com

1. From Deep Pacific, Ugly and Tasty, With a Catch
2. Take Bacon. Add Sausage. Blog.
3. It's a Fork, It's a Spoon, It's a ... Weapon?
4. When the Icing on the Cake Spells Disaster
5. Op-Ed Contributor - Dear A.I.G., I Quit!
6. Really? Never Blow Your Nose When You Have a Cold
7. The Unfortunate Location
8. What Do Women Want?
9. How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?
10. The 11 Best Foods You Aren't Eating

Good year, things to look for next year....new Iron Man movie, SSPU in concert, U2 in concert!

12.30.2009

Haruki Murakami - The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle

Another Murakami book, another chance to go hmmmm...This one was big. An enormous book, a lot to think about, although it is kind of funny because the overall point to the story was pretty simple. The journey from A to B was pretty easy...getting there was the tough part. Reading Murakami feels like watching an episode of Twin Peaks. For the most part his characters are very simple, very Japanese (with probably an overkill fondness of things American) and yet both this character and the one in Dance Dance Dance had an unnatural connection to another world (whether physically, emotionally, or figuratively?). Insight into this other dimension lays out the "hmmmm" in this book not to mention the people he meets because he has this insight into this out worldly dimension. The book doesn't bog down, it does have quite a lot of info on the Japanese conquest of China during WWII. While that does a play a part I don't see it being essential (?). It does help develop some characters and the whole Well thing does play a part.

Haiku Wednesday

Stockshow

Denver gathering
A vision of the Old West
A livestock party!

12.29.2009

Ebook - Future of Books?

Has the Ebook hit its tipping point? One wonders with the Kindle, Sony, and the soon to be released Nook (and of course the dark horse...Apple's vaporware tablet thingamajig), whether the book will finally go the way of the CD and newspaper?

I doubt it. The book is a little more resilient then other mediums. When I am on the beach or on vacation I don't want to curl up with another computer type device (can you say sand in your electronics!). Of course as the devices become more ubiquitous I am sure my sons will find them more appealing. My guess then, with this rush to convert books to electrons, is that everyone wants lightning to strike twice (iRead anyone?). Companies see what Apple has done with music and want to jump on that money making scheme. The roadblocks to such comparisons are 1) basic book cost and the medium, 2) needing another device, and 3) ownership.

1) In music the "single" was always the driver. In the days of analog and the record it was easy to market a song as a 45 so when iTunes came along it basically just reinvented the 50s way of distributing music. Books are sold entirely different. A book is an album not a song. You can't parse it in chunks...it is what it is. Publishers sell a book in multiple formats extracting smaller and smaller profits with each release. The book is a very different form of entertainment then a song or even a movie. In rare instance books are read again but of the three mediums my guess is that books are read then never looked again. An interesting question then is what is the value or price point of a book? How much time does it take to create a song versus a book? A song has the artist, the recording studio, the band members and what not. To me that is a huge apparatus and yet it goes for 99 cents. Now take a book...you have the creater, their computer (typewriter, hand written notes) and maybe an editor? A song takes maybe a month to create 4 minutes and a book may take 6 - 12 months and take a week to read? How does one value that? A song is 99 cents, an album is $9.99, a new movie release is $19.99...what is a book price point? Publishers have set a hardback at $30.00 (of course at WalMart you could get it for $12.99!) and $6.99 for a paperback. The price points has been set and I translate these costs to the cost of actually producing a bound paper copy. What then is the cost of sending me electrons? Does the price have to support the creator? Does a 99 cent song support the musician?

2) I love books and currently reading an electronic copy on the computer or my iTouch is painful. I have also at times tried the whole MS Reader and an old Rocketebook. They all just don't compare all that well with a real book. Who wants another electronic device? Ever try to read in bed with a computer? Plus don't you want a media device...one that you can read a book while listening to your tunes? Current Ebooks are pretty expensive one trick ponies and why they will never appeal to the masses.

3) And the final gripe to me is who owns an electronic book? After much problems, music has settled on the mp3. Every device plays it and you own your music. Now the same battle is reshaping over book copyrights.

The NY Times adds to the fray on whether the book you electronically buy should be copy protected and I take the following quote to be total BS,

"On the other hand, yes, unprotected books at this stage would be easily and wildly pirated — the barriers to staying ethical would be so low, people would pass around books like they forward e-mail jokes — and it would cost the book industry dearly."

Oh really? so I am being unethical when I give my book to my wife so that she can read it (or to my neighbor and what about the libraries of the world?) This is the same argument about music and movies that make me cringe. Growing up I had a tape deck...I would record songs on the radio, make mix tapes send them to my friends, and you know I wasn't paying for it. Same thing with movies and HBO and dual tape machines. This piracy thing ain't new...I remember my dad borrowing someones album and recording it to a tape on his tape deck. Sure the medium has changed but any form of entertainment can and will be copied. That is the nature of ideas. Ideas are meant to spread...

Studies seem to indicate (one in article above, others studies by the authors Gaiman and Doctorow) that if you give away your book for free not only do sales of book stay the same they actually increase. I think most people would agree that they are willing to pay something for someones creation...the problem is what and who are you paying for? Has a hardback book at $30.00 going changed any when it is published as a paperback? Has the value of the written word changed at all? Of this price what does the author receive? You know we could probably segway into the health insurance argument right about now...

Bottom line in all of this is not the author or the inventor but that the middleman wants his slice of nothing. Today's digital world brings us closer to the creator and thus we don't need that music industry, book publisher, or whatever. How often has it been said that the creator over the years has been screwed by the industry for making a whole lot more money then the creator. The industry says what about cost to advertise and support the creator? Yeah well the Internet axes the middle man. The internet has become the distributor. All creators want to become rich and further their creations but in the big scheme of things only a few creators become famous and most toil unknown for years without earning a penny. Distribute your creation!

12.26.2009

Sherlock Holmes

Guy Richie's take on the super sleuth was a welcome diversion during the Holidays. Having read one Holmes book and seen all the other iterations (hey what about the Young Sherlock Holmes...), I thought this one hit the target. Holmes, portrayed by Robert Downey Jr., was convincing. Not for sure if Holmes was really that rough and tumble (a boxer?) but a younger version simply kept the action up. We can only hope that sequel does contain his nemesis. Maybe even an appearance by Mycroft ;-)

12.23.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Champagne

Ring in the New Year
Pop the cork, tiny bubbles
Toast to Auld Lang Syne

12.22.2009

Rox Talk

A simple link dump before the Holidays...

Surprising article in how blunt it is about Atkins performance...I mean testing began in 2004 and Atkins got his first big shot in 2005. Drug testing is supposed to be more intense in the minors so I guess I would have a hard time thinking he was on the juice and then had to go cold turkey...

Todd Helton was ranked as one of the top 3 hitters in baseball history according to this study (link to the link here). Wired declared it a baseball version of six degrees of Kevin Bacon...

12.21.2009

Winter Solstice

As of this posting the Winter Solstice has just occurred. The sun is directly over the Tropic of Capricorn. Today is also the shortest day of the year with the sun only showing itself for 9 hours and 21 minutes...Winter starts today

DateSunriseSunsetThis dayDifferenceTimeAltitudeDistance
(106 km)
Dec 20, 20097:17 AM4:38 PM9h 21m 23s− 05s11:58 AM26.9°147.176
Dec 21, 20097:18 AM4:39 PM9h 21m 22s− 01s11:58 AM26.9°147.165
Dec 22, 20097:18 AM4:39 PM9h 21m 24s+ 02s11:59 AM26.9°147.154


12.17.2009

Conan Doyle - The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes

This is the first major Daily Lit book that I read. After 131 installments, I am not for sure if I like to read this way or whether it seemed to much like work! You would think that a couple of paragraphs a day would make this an easy way to go but I found that trying to get to it daily was incredibly difficult and then if you slipped a day it was easy to slip another and then suddenly you have 30 posts in your inbox that suddenly need reading!

This was my second attempt of getting through a Sherlock book. The first go of it I just wasn't into it. This time I enjoyed it. The stories were good although I the "mysteries" were sometimes contrived. The formulistic way of writing got a bit tiring it at times but overall it was a peak at the 19th century London.

12.16.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Cookies

They are Santa's treat
Bet reindeers wished he'd eat less
Coffee might help more!

12.14.2009

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 4

Last week we talked batting, this week we will close out with pitching. Again I must mention that WAR is only suppose to show the previous year...no one claims that it is predictive. Below is a graph plotting the Rox FIP vs WAR since 2002 (min of 20 innings pitched). These graphs might be a bit more correlated than the batting ones because the fielding isn't part of the Pitching WAR calculation. I did find it interesting that starters (empty squares, red line) and relievers (black squares, blue line) broke into two distinct groups.

Lower FIPs lead to bigger WARs. Again I fitted the points and used the expression to estimate possible outcomes for next year. The spreadsheet below shows Bill James FIP projections for the 2010 season. Using my handy dandy expression I get the following WARs (see sheet below, click on pitchers). The Bill James FIP can be found at Fangraphs and the website is currently taking fan guesses to what the player's WAR will be. As mentioned last week the fans WAR total for our 2010 team is 108 wins. My roster below is missing another arm. I would expect Rox to carry 13 pitchers(?)


Based on this WAG I have the Rox winning about 82 games. Just my gut says that we probably have about 6 more wins in there...accounting for the any missing players and Tulo and Jimenez being a bit below averaged based on historical numbers. As the season gets closer I will revisit this but 88 wins doesn't sound too bad.

12.13.2009

Bento Box!

The Japanese love to compartmentalize. Well ordered and a place for everything, the Bento Box is essential Japan (to me at least). Interesting to me that an outlet hasn't sprung up to provide these. I mean kids have them in "Lunchables"...why can't adults enjoy a nice box lunch...me want tasty bento!

12.10.2009

T-Minus: The Race to the Moon

A graphic novel retelling of the space race. A nice 124 page condensed version. Even with my extreme space knowledge there were a few tidbits that even I never really considered. Interesting to see what was included and not included.
Some things of interest:

1) Caldwell C. Johnson, I never have heard his name but the authors used him as kind of the engineer to represent them all.

2) In the 50s the Russian used a roomful of women to do calculations...they called this their "computer"

3) Interesting to note that in 1960 the Russian's learned the dangers of using a pure oxygen in their capsule (although this was learned during a training exercise on the ground) and lost a cosmonaut...too bad they kept the info to themselves otherwise we could have saved three lives in 1967.

4) Amazing to think Gargarin parachuted out of his capsule to land...

5) Every pound to the moon takes 3 pounds of fuel to get it there!

6) I've mentioned the Apollo Guidance Computer before but to put its memory in a new perspective it had enough space for 4 seconds of a MP3 song!


12.09.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Ice

Water's evil twin
Driver's nightmare,skier's too
Leave it to Hockey

12.08.2009

Song Memory - Desire

U2's Desire came out as a single back in November 1988. As the first single off of the Rattle and Hum album it was my first "I can't wait for the release" album. Every time the song plays I think of two things...my last high school cross country race and driving in the blue Nissan truck with my Dad.

Back in the day, during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the Kinney (now Foot Locker) Individual National Cross Country Championship qualifying race occurred in four venues throughout the country. The South regional meet was held in Charlotte every year. If you finished in the Top 8 you were then invited (all expense trip) to race in San Diego for the national meet. It was a good goal to shoot for. During my Junior year I had finished 11th so I was somewhat confident that I could make the top 8 in my senior year. The race course did not suit me very well. It was a relatively flat course that narrowed into a small trail. To get a good position one had to get out fast which was the complete opposite of how I had run all year. I ran okay but it wasn't my day and I finished 16th or so. It was a rather disappointing afternoon but on the way home we stopped for lunch and I picked up the single. So when I hear the song I think of Charlotte, NC, my last race, and the blue Nissan!

12.07.2009

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 3


OK so we are all smarter when it comes to WAR but what does it all mean? Well it is not a predictive tool, so it simply shows the value of the player for the previous year and shows whether a player was truly worth what the team forked over for him. Back in May on the Purple Row website a pretty good explanation is shown using WAR and Rox payrolls to show whether the team was worth its wins.




The Rox management team should be commended. They earned alot more wins then what they are paying. Essentially this is because they haven't delved into the free agent market and they have a lot of WAR coming from players in their pre-arbitration days. Tulo and Jimenez are outright steals right now! It will be interesting to see during the next union bargaining whether players try to change how they can bargain when they first make the big leagues. Small market clubs are simply jettisoning players once they become arbitration eligible. Look at Atkins, he is 28 and should be coming into his attractive payroll period and yet the Rox just threw him aside for younger cheaper talent. It is a strong possibility that Atkins is done and probably will never see $7 million a year again. Now of course he could have signed a long term deal too so a player does have that option...stability over free agent big bucks...you better not swan dive during that pre free agency year!

Back to WAR...I wonder if there is any predictive value to it? WARNING: WAR is only suppose to show the previous year...no one claims that it is predictive. Below is a graph plotting the Rox wOBA vs WAR since 2002 (min of 60 plate appearances). As I mentioned this really shouldn't tell me anything because position played and defense ability does factor into WAR in the transition from wOBA but what the heck...with excel and a new tool I just found I can do whatever I want! (it is my web page).

Higher wOBAs lead to bigger WARs. My new tool helped me create a nice line through the data. After some simple ;-) math I got this expression...whoopee!

f(x)= 2.38733*exp(15*x- 5.16638)-0.44

So back to estimating. The spreadsheet below shows Bill James wOBA projections for the 2010 season. Using my handy dandy expression I get the following WARs (see sheet below). The Bill James wOBA can be found at Fangraphs and the website is currently taking fan guesses to what the player's WAR will be. Currently the fans WAR total for our 2010 team is 38.9 for our players and if you add the pitching data in (next week post) the Rox would end up with 108 wins (fans might be thinking a bit too highly)! My 2010 team below also is missing another two or three bats (a catcher , infielder, and pitch hitter). Also I don't think Hawpe is going to get 642 bats!

Of the numbers using my estimating tool I would think Tulo and CarGo might have better seasons then what their wOBA says. Rox do have some talent, the big question is 2010 going to be like 2009 or 2008? Will expectations once again bite?

12.06.2009

Winter Running

I hear the snow crunch
Running on a white blanket
Day three-four-zero

12.04.2009

Sarah Flannery - In Code

Another ancient book on my books to read list...funny this list never seems to shorten! Since discovering the library I have found that finding these older books and reading them is a lot easier on the wallet...doh!

I have no idea where this book came about. My usual suspects don't ring a bell and I can only think that it might have been in the New Yorker? Interesting book especially insight into a mathematical mind. Cryptography is a fascinating topic and the work this teenager did was pretty fantastic. Math get a bit rough and thus the book kind of bored me but the concepts were interesting. Interestingly I googled her to see what she has been up to since winning and frankly not much. She worked for EA then went on to her own company...

12.02.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Lights

Meaning of Christmas?
Tangled up, the missing bulbs
Ah the frustration

12.01.2009

Monopoly?

With the holiday over, the comment was made after playing the annual family game of monopoly, why is it that no one ever lands on Park Place and Boardwalk? This website calculated the probabilities of landing on each square and this website does a cost analysis of what sites are the best to own. The probabilities in the spreadsheet below were taken from this site and was simply sorted on rank (it is actually the purple properties that are never landed on). Boardwalk and Park Place are middle of the pack but my guess is that you end up in jail before you make it around the board(?).



It would appear the best properties to own are the light blue, orange, and all the railroads...