Greg Rucka - Queen and Country Book 3

Book 3 of Rucka's British heroine. Great comic book series. A little gritty, a little intense but overall a great storytelling. It is nice that Chace isn't just a cardboard cut out of a character. There is some depth and meaning to her that is often difficult to storytell in a "comic book". I really liked the scripts at the back especially the Easter Eggs or inside scoops that Rucka throws out. Book 4 is suppose to be out soon (or later). That should complete the cycle. I have heard that Chace is on the back burner for a while :-(

Haiku Wednesday

Shadow

Your doppelganger
Where do they go in the night?
Perhaps they sleep too

A List...

I love lists. The Guardian has a list of must read scifi and fantasy novels.

Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Non-Stop

Foundation

The Blind Assassin

In the Country of Last Things

The Wasp Factory

Consider Phlebas

Weaveworld

Darkmans

The Time Ships

Darwin's Radio

The Stars My Destination

Lost Souls

Rogue Moon
The Master and Margarita

The Coming Race - 1871!
A Clockwork Orange

The End of World News

A Princess of Mars

Naked Lunch

Kindred

Erewhon

The Baron in the Trees

The Influence

Alice's Adventures in Wonderland - 1865!!

Through the Looking Glass and What Alice Found There - 1871!!!

Nights at the Circus

The Adventures of Kavalier and Clay

Childhood's End

The Man Who was Thursday

Jonathon Strange and Mr Norrell

Hello Summer, Goodbye

Girlfriend in a Coma

House of Leaves

Pig Tales

Einstein Intersection

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep

The Man in the High Castle

Foucault's Pendulum

Under the Skid

The Magus

American Gods

Red Shift

Neuromancer

Herland

Lord of the Flies

This is just part 1!  There are two more parts.  Interesting list probably a little British for us but definitely some books I might have to track done.  By the way I had no ideal that Alice in Wonderland was written at the end of the Civil War...that is amazing!

Rox Talk

Is Todd Helton a Hall of Famer?

The Hall of Fame is a fickle organization.  I came across this article by Joe Posnanski and started thinking of the probability of our only legitimate Hall of Famer, Todd Helton.  So what do we have:

1)  Finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting

2)  Finished as high as 5th in MVP voting

3)  Has played in 5 All Star games

4)  Played in a World Series

5)  Three gold gloves

Statistically speaking he has

1) 1,957 hits

2) 310 Home Runs

3) .328 career batting average

4) 1.002 OPS, one of only 5 players to have a career OPS of greater than 1.000

For Joe's article he claims that longevity certainly plays a point in getting into the hall.  His theory below:

5,000 plate appearances: 653 players, 122 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 18.6%

7,000 plate appearances: 284 players, 98 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 35%.

7,500 plate appearances: 225 players, 87 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 39%

8,000 plate appearances: 183 players, 83 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 45%

8,500 plate appearances: 125 players, 67 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 54%

9,000 plate appearances: 102 players, 64 Hall of Famers. Hall of Fame chances: 63%

9,500 plate appearances: 78 players, 55 Hall of Famers, Hall of Fame chances: 71%

10,000 plate appearances: 55 players, 43 Hall of Famers, Hall of Fame chances: 78%

10,500 plate appearances: 37 players, 31 Hall of Famers, Hall of Fame chances: 84%

11,000 plate appearances: 26 players, 23 Hall of Fames, Hall of Fame chances: 88%

Well Helton has 5,962 plate appearances so based on above he has about 25% chance of getting in.  What about 3,000 hits (and another 2 - 3,000 plate appearances)?  Well then he his about 2/3 of the way.  Based on his history he has average about 150 hits a year so he needs about another 6-7 years to get to 3,000.   At 35 I don't think Helton has another 6 - 7 years in him but lets say he does.   Todd's HR hitting days are about over...he managed 7 last year...and I expect him to finish just shy of 400.  In the old days 500 homers were a shoo in but my guess is that 600 will become the new number and Todd will never hit these numbers.  In the end I think Todd will have a fantastic career, will have his number retired as a Rockie, but will ultimately fall short of the Hall of Fame.

David Mindell - Digital Apollo

Fascinating book and definitely an engineer's look back at the landing of man on the moon. I believe I read about one or two books a year detailing man's only visit to our Earth's traveling partner. (Would life have emerged from our world without the moon? I digress...). Reading about one little aspect of the project and seeing how millions of these projects were put together to build a space ship is just awe inspiring. I mean for the computers they used little old ladies with years of sewing experience to make the computer cores for the Apollo Guidance computer! That is just crazy. Overall a wonderful little book, would have loved to taken the MIT course the Mindell taught. In the end the part of a book that I thought was the best was the part about the six actual moon landing and how each and every command pilot took over from the guidance system and actually took control of where the landing occurred. I mean every landing could have been done automatically by the guidance computer but in every debrief every command pilot related an almost identical story that when the LM rolled over and the pilot got a view of the landing site they claimed the "computer" was taking them into a an undesirable landing site. Reading their own claims you always gathered their superiority but to read an engineer's view and truly understanding their ego. An interesting viewpoint that I have never read...

U2's New Album

U2's new album due out in March.  The first song, "Get On Your Boots", seems to be a typical Bono song.  Hoping for a slamdunk but not too much.  We shall see...I seem to like every other U2 album so Vertigo was ok but I loved All That You Can Leave Behind so this new one should be a favorite. 

1. No Line On The Horizon
2. Magnificent
3. Moment of Surrender
4. Unknown Caller
5. I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight
6. Get On Your Boots
7. Stand Up Comedy
8. Fez - Being Born
9. White As Snow
10. Breathe
11. Cedars Of Lebanon

Haiku Wednesday

Wind

Invisible Force
The trees bend but do not break
Motto to live by...

President Obama

Bush 43 certainly had his quirks but is final act was kind of cool.

Rox Talk

Originally published here

Lucky is the residue of design – Branch Rickey

Hall of Famer Tracy Ringolsby led off his January 8th column with a story on the stability of major league general managers.  Dan O'Dowd, GM of the Colorado Rockies, starts his 10th season and ranks fifth among GMs with the longest tenure.  I think most Rockies fans probably have a love/hate relationship with our GM.  Maybe indifference is a better opinion.  In nine years O'Dowd has watched over a team that has gone 677 - 782 and has had only two winning seasons.  Compiling an average 75 - 87 record certainly can't be considered a success.  The only consistency O’Dowd has brought to town is the consistency of finishing under .500.

In the past nine years O'Dowd has certainly experimented with what it takes to win at altitude.  To be fair his first three years were trying to clean out salary with a team that wasn't winning.  Then in 2003, the rebuilding began which led to a National League pennant and a World Series visit in 2007.  Now he is trying to manage expectations. 

In trying to build a winner, O'Dowd didn't get his nickname "Dealin’ O'Dowd" for nothing.  Below are the trades he managed since arriving in Denver.

O'Dowd's moniker certainly fits especially in the early days.  In addition to the trades, the chart shows the player's Win Shares.  For a traded player the Win Shares shown are those the player had after being traded.  For an acquired player, the Win Shares shown are those earned as a Rockie.  Note:  Only Win Shares since 2004 are shown...data available here.  Without going into too much depth, O'Dowd didn’t get much value early on (1999 - 2000).  Then, in 2001, the Bard and Gerut trade was his worst, since Cruz never amounted to anything.  For the next 5 years O’Dowd didn’t do much, the young signed players weren’t mature yet and the team was burdened with high salaries from the Hampton and Neagle deals. O'Dowd was just “minding the ship,” making sure the ball club didn't sink.  In 2006, O’Dowd probably pulled off his greatest slight of hand with the dumping of Jennings for Taveras, Hirsh, and Buchholz.  Beyond the trades, O'Dowd's strongest contribution has been the draft.  Drafted players who have provided significant reasons for the team's success include Francis, Tulo, Atkins, and Hawpe.  Ultimately O'Dowd's legacy will be his trading of Holliday for really nothing of significance.

The question then is what more could our General Manager have done in the last 9 years?  Alternatively one could ask does a General Manager really matter?  At the MLB level, winning and losing may have more to do with luck, attitude, and culture than free agent signing, drafting, and trading.  All teams draft similar type players year after year.  Player statistics and their cause and effect all wash out year after year.  Very few GMs make horrible or amazing trades that really amount to huge swings.  The Monforts haven't opened the bank in the last 5 years.  Even after going to the World Series we couldn't land a significant free agent (especially at 2B).  Pitcher's don't want to come here after the Hampton, Neagle, Kile debacle.   I think we can easily overlook the complexity of building a long-term winner.  O'Dowd has shown the ability to pick players but hasn't shown the ability to land any free agents that can shore up weak links, and finally his trades have been a mixed bag. 

When O'Dowd is eventually let go it will be because he didn't get a pitcher of significance when trading Holliday and for not meeting expectations of a team that made the World Series.  Regardless of what O’Dowd (or Hurdle or the Monforts) does, we the fans will moan and groan or cheer because we are passionate about our Rockies.  I’m sure O’Dowd is passionate about baseball, like the rest of us, but that passion doesn’t seem to transfer to the field.  It just goes to show that regardless of what a GM accomplishes, does a GM really get a team where it needs to be?  Nine years in the front office has molded this organization and I think with the Holliday trade, O’Dowd’s luck has run out.

Portland, Oregon

Spent a nice relaxing quick 4 day vacation in Portland, Oregon for my B-Day.  It was good to get away.  The city is a great getaway with a fantastic book store.  A store that covers an entire city block that is up to 4 stories high.  It is magical place for booklovers.

Portland is also a great place to drink good be

er.  Since 80% of the US hops is grown in the Portland area I guess IPAs have to be some of the freshest.  Bridgeport has a nice little tour and some great beers.

Portland has a triple A club...the Beavers...who are the farmclub for the Padres.  Nice little stadium been around since 1905.

Did some site seeing went to the Portland Art Museum.  Nice little museum.  Some interesting pieces.  I liked the following and Linda Connor's photograph of a moonbeam and star trails.

And finally a nice touch with our hotel room...

Haiku Wednesday

Cowboys

Riding on the Range
Romantic Western vision
Just don't ask the horse!

Lego Set 7683

Coming in at 376 pieces this Indiana Jones set commemorates the Fight on the Flying Wing. One of my personal favorite sequences in the original Indiana Jones movies. Interestingly enough I thought I had seen an earlier photo of the set and it was awful! The finished set is actually quite good with the plane cockpit pretty decent. Don't quite understand how they decided to build the big wing piece. Don't think there will be too much reuse for this piece but I guess it cost less than having to piece together a wing out of individual pieces. Gee wondered who did that cost analysis...

Rox Talk

Couple of interesting things I found, almost all in a week's time, on the Stat of the Day site especially pertaining to our Rox...

Number 1:  Taveras is the only player in MLB history to steal 5 bases and not score a run...that awesome offensive we had last year!

Number 2:  And then the next day on the webpage what do they have?  We discover that Holliday was on base 6 separate times in a single game and didn't score a run (and didn't hit anyone in)!

And finally...

Number 3:  An interesting look at OPS+ (recall that OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played, but not for fielding position. An OPS+ of 100 is defined to be the league average) and field position.  The post shows a nice graph showing field positions over the last 50 years and OPS+.  I was curious to see how last year's MLB field position OPS+ and the 2008 Rox (by composite so for catcher this is the OPS+ between Ianetta and Torrealba) compared?

For 6 of 9 positions we are above the MLB composite.  Where were we hurting?  1B, 2B, and CF. Well we got rid of Taveras but do we think a platoon between Spilborghs, Fowler, and Gonzalez can give us a better offensive position?  I hope so.  Taveras was awful getting on base last year. Once he reached base (.308 on base percentage last year) he created havoc but I think in retrospect he didn't set the table for the big bats.  

Hopefully at 1B we get Helton back and who did have an OPS+ of 100 at the position for 83 games.  I don't think Helton can get back to the top (he has a career OPS+ of 141) but I think he can get to average.  

And finally at 2B...we get Baker and Barmes...can Barmes continue his resurgence?  Barmes did have a 99 OPS+ in 103 games last year which would certainly help the position's offensive numbers.  

Overall I think the Rox offense will be OK next year but some part time contributors (Spilborghs, Smith, Koshansky) will need to step up especially in LF after the departure of Holliday.  

Risk Adverse or Lack of Imagination

I am a product of the late 70s and 80s.  I grew up without wearing a helmet, I drove around in a car without a seat belt, my mother smoked around me while growing up, and as a teenager my mom let me roam Washington DC all by myself to see the sites.  As an adult, with children, I have come half circle (?) and basically forced my kids to wear helmets and seatbelts.  I shun smoker's and have difficulty letting my older son go down the street on his own!  What happened from the time I became an adult and then had children?  Nothing ever bad happened when I was a kid so why have I become so risk adverse?

Obviously I don't raise my kids in a vacuum and today all we ever hear about is reducing risk to your children.  Our society in some ways has come to believe that by reducing risk in all forms we will lead a better, safer life.  I have to admit this isn't a bad thing.  Reducing risk, being safe are all good things we should strive for, but has reducing risk caused us to forget or marginalize what risk is?  By rationalizing our risks to such a degree do we simply placate our insecurities? Now of course the dichotomy of all of this is that our imagination runs wild when it comes to our kids safety and yet for trying to imagine using planes as missiles, Category 5 hurricanes, or financial catastrophes we seem to have a lack of imagination.  Have we tried to quantify risk in such a way that we have forgotten what risks truly are?

As and an adult I tend to pay closer attention to the world we live in then I probably did growing up but it seems to me that since 2000 we have had three major events that occurred that simply defies what we would consider a normal, expected event.  I wonder that the severity of these events is more due to us marginalizing risk in such a degree that we have lost imagination into what can truly happen.  Insulating ourselves from risks and forgetting that is still does exist...

1.  9/11 - A well documented disaster of our nation's intelligence apparatus.  A complex plot that was chillingly simple to accomplish.  To me the biggest reason for the success on the part of the terrorist was surprise.  Our intelligence teams lacked the imagination and our government wrapped ourselves in our airport security blanket believing the risk was successfully managed.  

2.  Hurricane Katrina - A "perfect storm" that slammed in New Orleans crippling and otherwise decimating a city.  A week after the storm the newsreels showed something that could only be someplace other than America.  Inefficient, unprepared emergency management bungled a relief that was unprepared for the devastation.  Again I am sure plenty of table top exercises were performed and simulated.  I don't fault the individuals but I do fault the system because again the system was unprepared.  Risks of such an event were broken into manageable pieces, i.e. the levees would hold, but when the weak link broke, the risks magnified into an uncontrollable event.

3.  Financial Meltdown of '08 - Still reeling from this far-reaching disaster.  A definite herd mentality created this meltdown.  The very essence was again dividing risk into manageable assets so that it could be packaged and sold around the globe with every buyer truly unaware or completely at ease with what was being done because the risk had been so managed that it was forgotten.  

So have we become so well at managing our risks that we are actually more at risk?  Maybe instead of being so risk aversed we should be more risky just so that we actually spend the time to use our imagination and determine what the potential hazards could be.  We should realize that quantifying risk doesn't mean that it is understood and that we can tuck it away.  Complex systems (the Earth, society's, financial institutions) are fragile entities that can collapse with very simple inputs.  That imagination is more important.  Maybe we shouldn't call it risk management but perhaps we should have a Chief Imagination Officer to not manage risks with belief that we can control them, but to layout visions of the impossible so that weak links in complex systems can be fixed to prevent the disasters if they fail.

Peter O'Donnell - Modesty Blaise

Okay not for sure where Modesty Blaise came into my hemisphere of thinking but I tracked down Book 1 and gave it a whirl.  It certainly didn't disappoint.  I was expecting a female version of James Bond and that is what I got, but I thought overall O'Donnell was a better writer than Fleming.  The story progressed better, it had the customary 50/60s cheesy sexism, but overall a good book.  I enjoy her Number 2 something Bond is missing and the back story was interesting.  The bad guy and his muscle were carbon copy of what you expect to see in a Bond movie.  Overall very good and now my problem is Book 2 seems to be a bit rare only able to find a paperback for $12 on alibris...girrrrrr

Oh yeah and in my continuation of the Greystoke mantra author Chuck Loridans in an essay posits that Modesty is the daughter of Tarzan and La of Opar.  See everything is connected in one way or another!

Haiku Wednesday

Skiing

New snow, fresh powder
Ski's groan, cool air, muscles ache
Better than working

Chess

Reader's Note: I really don't know much about chess other than I can play at an elementary level and thus I understand how the pieces move. What I find more fascinating is how the games are played at the very high level and how people find beauty in the way these games are played.

In the NY Times Magazine this week, there was an article on Bobby Fischer (he passed away in 2008). From an incredibly young age he developed into one of the world's finest chess players. His so-called coming out party was when he was just 13 (?) and took on a very accomplished US player named Byrne. In this match Fischer sacrifices his queen early in the game only to rally and defeat Byrne. In hindsight this was the only possible move but at the time it was rash decision that created quite a stir. In fact chess historians claim that this is one of the greatest matches ever played.  Amazing to think that a developing mind can play at such a high level so young.  The unbelievable quirk that led the young Fischer to a chess game and allowing him a life of controlling kings, queen, rooks, and pawns.  From my layman's point of view it seems like such a simple game and yet have it dissolve into such complexity humbles me.  With so many defenses and memorized plays and moves, can a game still surprise and amaze us?  Is there any imagination left?  Again it seems that as with many other historical events the Cold War put some things, like chess on more of stage when it became an us versus them event.  Any way the move below shows the board position before Fischer (black pieces) allowed his queen to be given up.  Instead of saving his queen he moves his bishop thus giving up the queen to his opponent's bishop.  Poetry in motion...

Rox Talk

Hot Stove League

Looks like Jason Marquis is signing the dotted line to be our 4th starter.  The plus behind this move is that we get rid of Luis Vizcaino who ended up being a bust.   O'Dowd has certainly stocked up on pitching.  I believe his theory is that with enough 4th and 5th (6th?) starters that eventually the manager will find someone who will stick.  Assuming Cook, Francis, and Jimenez are the top 3 starters, we suddenly have a glut with Marquis, de la Rosa, Hirsh, Morales, Reynolds, and newly acquired Smith.  Well this strategy didn't work last year but perhaps we'll strike gold like we did in 2007 with the likes of Fogg.  In the end I think having alot of options at pitching is key but I still shudder to think where we are going to find 23 win shares that left with Holliday (that is almost 8 wins and the difference between a 74 win season and a 66 win season!).

Oh yeah, Fuentes is going to be pitching in LA for the Angels next year at a slightly reduced amount then what I think he wanted...too bad....not!

Hit Types

Not for sure why but I have always been more fascinated with pitchers and their statistics. When I used to play fantasy baseball I was always good at picking pitchers but truly awful with hitters. Anyway it seems that I always play with more pitching stats than anything else!  I believed I showed this graph two weeks (?) ago.  Basically it shows the percentage of groundballs, flyballs, line drives, strike outs, walks, and other over the history of the Rox.  Groundballs have ranged between 28 - 36% of the total outcomes with the batter, flyballs have ranged from 21 to 26%, and etc.  What is fascinating to me is how similar year after year is.  I mean pretty consistent over the years and one would expect that the Rox pitchers will throw an average of 33% GB, 23% FB, 16% LD,  2% Bunts, 15% strikeouts, 9% walks, and 2% other.  If you look at the graph below there isn't a lot of difference between 2007 and 2008 between the types of hits and yet the Rox won 90 in '07 and 74 in '08.

So if you can expect 33% groundballs year after year then how many hits does this lead to and what sort of consistency exists with hits and groundballs.  So from the chart below it shows that of the groundballs hit approximately 22% of these then become hits.  Besides some funky data from 2000 - 2002 it appears that once again there is some consistency between the type of hit ball and the amount of hits.  From the graph below it would seem that line drives lead to the most hits.  So it would seem if a pitcher can reduce his line drives then that is a sure way of decreasing hits...

So the next question would be how many runs are generated from the type of hits?  Well on average 45% of runs are generated from flyballs, 31% from line drives, and 23% from groundballs (average does not include 2000 - 2002 numbers).  Again from the graph below there is not a lot of difference from year to year.  Could the 2% difference in line drives (and decrease of 3% in flyballs) from '07 to '08 account for the difference in winning 90 or 74?  35 more runs were scored in '08 off of line drives then '07 and yet there were only 9 more line drive hits.  Also there were almost 41 more flyball hits in '08 and yet only 2 more runs scored in '08 versus '07.  

I guess what all this tells me is to reduce your number of line drives as they lead to the most hits and stay away from flyballs when runners are on because they lead to the most runs scored.

This Week in Comics

Daredevil #114

A continuing good yarn of a tale.  I have enjoyed this series.  Lady Bullseye hasn't been as bad as I thought.  It will be interesting to see why she has it out for our red hero...plus the dirty tricks she is pulling...I smell a beat down coming!

New Avengers #48

The first post Secret Invasion book and frankly it doesn't have much going on although it would appear that Luke Cage's baby whereabouts will continue to be a continuing storyline.  Frankly I am tired of Jessica and Luke's ongoing soap opera as being the main driver for this book.  I mean Luke dealing with the devil should come back to haunt our fearless avengers but I think it would be nice to have those big giant Avenger battles!

Ultimate Spider-Man #129

Bendis must have gotten over his hangover from Secret Invasion with a great spidey story (with Spider-Woman)...which has been a long time coming.  Secret Invasion really must have wiped his brain of anything good.  This one had some classic lines like, "Hall of Justice.  How may I help you?" - Spidey talking to Johnny Storm and "Help me Peter Parker!  You're my only hope!" - Johnny in response.

Captain America #45

Kind of a snoozer storyline compared to what we were used to with the just completed tale, four issues back.  I hope that Brubaker is brewing up a new tale for our striped hero.  Frankly not much to say on these last 4 issues....nothing memorable for me...

Out with 2008 and in with 2009

Well another year in the books, another orbit around the sun. Good year, continue to keep up with blog and I am pleased with how it has gone...it is nice to be able to go back and review 2008. I hope to improve some of the baseball posts. So the final tally:

- 31 books read (favorite, "Laika" and "The Numbers Game")
- 108 comics reviewed (favorite, "Captain America" and "Daredevil")
- Best Movie seen was "Iron Man"
- Best Comic Cover was Uncanny X-men #503
- 51 Haiku's Written

My Favorites Haiku's

Winter

Long shadows, low sun
Big piercing blue sky, drab earth
Clouds caress white peaks

Green Chile

It's spicy goodness
My burrito craves its warmth
Naked without it

Snow

White blankets the land
Refreshes, hides blemishes
Crunch beneath your feet

Top Ten Posts

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/01/50th-anniversary-of-lego.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/02/leap-day.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/03/great-street-art.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/04/laika-first-biological-entity-in-space.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/05/colorado-symphony.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/06/natural-selection-in-lab.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/07/we-are-just-small-orb.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/08/democratic-national-convention.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/09/man-on-wire.html

http://cykes.blogspot.com/2008/11/rox-talk_24.html

Top 10 Viewed Features of 2008 on NYTimes.com

1. Politics: Lose the BlackBerry? Yes He Can, Maybe
2. N.Y. / Region: For an Aspiring Singer, A Harsher Spotlight
3. N.Y. / Region: Spitzer Is Linked to Prostitution Ring
4. Television: 'Idol' Judge Admits Rehearsal Guided Her
5. Politics: For McCain, Self-Confidence on Ethics Poses Its Own Risk
6. Well: The 11 Best Foods You Aren't Eating
7. City Room: The Death of Heath Ledger
8. Rich: The Terrorist Barack Hussein Obama
9. Politics: Once Elected, Palin Hired Friends and Lashed Foes
10. Media & Advertising: Revealing Photo Threatens a Major Disney Franchise

Good year, things to look for next year....new Transformer movie, new U2 album, new Fray album, and new SSPU album!