12.31.2009

End of a Decade...

Well another year in the books, another orbit around the sun. Good year, I managed to keep up with blog although I only managed 196 posts (due to some intense studying I kind of slacked on the writing) Comic reviews and AF football suffered. Again it was nice to be able to go back and review 2009. I hope to get back to the comic posts. So the final tally:

- 30 books read over 9,000 pages (favorite, "Horse Soldiers" and "Dance Dance Dance")
- Best Comics this Year - Had to be the Scott Pilgrim series

- Best Movie seen was "Hangover"

- Favorite Album - Swoon by Silversun Pickups
- Best Comic Cover was Uncanny X-men #503
- 56 Haiku's Written

My Favorites Haiku's

Shadow

Your doppelganger
Where do they go in the night?
Perhaps they sleep too

Stars

Gazing upon thee
Wonder if someone watches
and Haiku's about us?

Jazz
Saxophone simmers
Base thumps, piano prances
America's song

Top Posts

Top 10 Viewed Features of 2009 on NYTimes.com

1. From Deep Pacific, Ugly and Tasty, With a Catch
2. Take Bacon. Add Sausage. Blog.
3. It's a Fork, It's a Spoon, It's a ... Weapon?
4. When the Icing on the Cake Spells Disaster
5. Op-Ed Contributor - Dear A.I.G., I Quit!
6. Really? Never Blow Your Nose When You Have a Cold
7. The Unfortunate Location
8. What Do Women Want?
9. How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?
10. The 11 Best Foods You Aren't Eating

Good year, things to look for next year....new Iron Man movie, SSPU in concert, U2 in concert!

12.30.2009

Haruki Murakami - The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle

Another Murakami book, another chance to go hmmmm...This one was big. An enormous book, a lot to think about, although it is kind of funny because the overall point to the story was pretty simple. The journey from A to B was pretty easy...getting there was the tough part. Reading Murakami feels like watching an episode of Twin Peaks. For the most part his characters are very simple, very Japanese (with probably an overkill fondness of things American) and yet both this character and the one in Dance Dance Dance had an unnatural connection to another world (whether physically, emotionally, or figuratively?). Insight into this other dimension lays out the "hmmmm" in this book not to mention the people he meets because he has this insight into this out worldly dimension. The book doesn't bog down, it does have quite a lot of info on the Japanese conquest of China during WWII. While that does a play a part I don't see it being essential (?). It does help develop some characters and the whole Well thing does play a part.

Haiku Wednesday

Stockshow

Denver gathering
A vision of the Old West
A livestock party!

12.29.2009

Ebook - Future of Books?

Has the Ebook hit its tipping point? One wonders with the Kindle, Sony, and the soon to be released Nook (and of course the dark horse...Apple's vaporware tablet thingamajig), whether the book will finally go the way of the CD and newspaper?

I doubt it. The book is a little more resilient then other mediums. When I am on the beach or on vacation I don't want to curl up with another computer type device (can you say sand in your electronics!). Of course as the devices become more ubiquitous I am sure my sons will find them more appealing. My guess then, with this rush to convert books to electrons, is that everyone wants lightning to strike twice (iRead anyone?). Companies see what Apple has done with music and want to jump on that money making scheme. The roadblocks to such comparisons are 1) basic book cost and the medium, 2) needing another device, and 3) ownership.

1) In music the "single" was always the driver. In the days of analog and the record it was easy to market a song as a 45 so when iTunes came along it basically just reinvented the 50s way of distributing music. Books are sold entirely different. A book is an album not a song. You can't parse it in chunks...it is what it is. Publishers sell a book in multiple formats extracting smaller and smaller profits with each release. The book is a very different form of entertainment then a song or even a movie. In rare instance books are read again but of the three mediums my guess is that books are read then never looked again. An interesting question then is what is the value or price point of a book? How much time does it take to create a song versus a book? A song has the artist, the recording studio, the band members and what not. To me that is a huge apparatus and yet it goes for 99 cents. Now take a book...you have the creater, their computer (typewriter, hand written notes) and maybe an editor? A song takes maybe a month to create 4 minutes and a book may take 6 - 12 months and take a week to read? How does one value that? A song is 99 cents, an album is $9.99, a new movie release is $19.99...what is a book price point? Publishers have set a hardback at $30.00 (of course at WalMart you could get it for $12.99!) and $6.99 for a paperback. The price points has been set and I translate these costs to the cost of actually producing a bound paper copy. What then is the cost of sending me electrons? Does the price have to support the creator? Does a 99 cent song support the musician?

2) I love books and currently reading an electronic copy on the computer or my iTouch is painful. I have also at times tried the whole MS Reader and an old Rocketebook. They all just don't compare all that well with a real book. Who wants another electronic device? Ever try to read in bed with a computer? Plus don't you want a media device...one that you can read a book while listening to your tunes? Current Ebooks are pretty expensive one trick ponies and why they will never appeal to the masses.

3) And the final gripe to me is who owns an electronic book? After much problems, music has settled on the mp3. Every device plays it and you own your music. Now the same battle is reshaping over book copyrights.

The NY Times adds to the fray on whether the book you electronically buy should be copy protected and I take the following quote to be total BS,

"On the other hand, yes, unprotected books at this stage would be easily and wildly pirated — the barriers to staying ethical would be so low, people would pass around books like they forward e-mail jokes — and it would cost the book industry dearly."

Oh really? so I am being unethical when I give my book to my wife so that she can read it (or to my neighbor and what about the libraries of the world?) This is the same argument about music and movies that make me cringe. Growing up I had a tape deck...I would record songs on the radio, make mix tapes send them to my friends, and you know I wasn't paying for it. Same thing with movies and HBO and dual tape machines. This piracy thing ain't new...I remember my dad borrowing someones album and recording it to a tape on his tape deck. Sure the medium has changed but any form of entertainment can and will be copied. That is the nature of ideas. Ideas are meant to spread...

Studies seem to indicate (one in article above, others studies by the authors Gaiman and Doctorow) that if you give away your book for free not only do sales of book stay the same they actually increase. I think most people would agree that they are willing to pay something for someones creation...the problem is what and who are you paying for? Has a hardback book at $30.00 going changed any when it is published as a paperback? Has the value of the written word changed at all? Of this price what does the author receive? You know we could probably segway into the health insurance argument right about now...

Bottom line in all of this is not the author or the inventor but that the middleman wants his slice of nothing. Today's digital world brings us closer to the creator and thus we don't need that music industry, book publisher, or whatever. How often has it been said that the creator over the years has been screwed by the industry for making a whole lot more money then the creator. The industry says what about cost to advertise and support the creator? Yeah well the Internet axes the middle man. The internet has become the distributor. All creators want to become rich and further their creations but in the big scheme of things only a few creators become famous and most toil unknown for years without earning a penny. Distribute your creation!

12.26.2009

Sherlock Holmes

Guy Richie's take on the super sleuth was a welcome diversion during the Holidays. Having read one Holmes book and seen all the other iterations (hey what about the Young Sherlock Holmes...), I thought this one hit the target. Holmes, portrayed by Robert Downey Jr., was convincing. Not for sure if Holmes was really that rough and tumble (a boxer?) but a younger version simply kept the action up. We can only hope that sequel does contain his nemesis. Maybe even an appearance by Mycroft ;-)

12.23.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Champagne

Ring in the New Year
Pop the cork, tiny bubbles
Toast to Auld Lang Syne

12.22.2009

Rox Talk

A simple link dump before the Holidays...

Surprising article in how blunt it is about Atkins performance...I mean testing began in 2004 and Atkins got his first big shot in 2005. Drug testing is supposed to be more intense in the minors so I guess I would have a hard time thinking he was on the juice and then had to go cold turkey...

Todd Helton was ranked as one of the top 3 hitters in baseball history according to this study (link to the link here). Wired declared it a baseball version of six degrees of Kevin Bacon...

12.21.2009

Winter Solstice

As of this posting the Winter Solstice has just occurred. The sun is directly over the Tropic of Capricorn. Today is also the shortest day of the year with the sun only showing itself for 9 hours and 21 minutes...Winter starts today

DateSunriseSunsetThis dayDifferenceTimeAltitudeDistance
(106 km)
Dec 20, 20097:17 AM4:38 PM9h 21m 23s− 05s11:58 AM26.9°147.176
Dec 21, 20097:18 AM4:39 PM9h 21m 22s− 01s11:58 AM26.9°147.165
Dec 22, 20097:18 AM4:39 PM9h 21m 24s+ 02s11:59 AM26.9°147.154


12.17.2009

Conan Doyle - The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes

This is the first major Daily Lit book that I read. After 131 installments, I am not for sure if I like to read this way or whether it seemed to much like work! You would think that a couple of paragraphs a day would make this an easy way to go but I found that trying to get to it daily was incredibly difficult and then if you slipped a day it was easy to slip another and then suddenly you have 30 posts in your inbox that suddenly need reading!

This was my second attempt of getting through a Sherlock book. The first go of it I just wasn't into it. This time I enjoyed it. The stories were good although I the "mysteries" were sometimes contrived. The formulistic way of writing got a bit tiring it at times but overall it was a peak at the 19th century London.

12.16.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Cookies

They are Santa's treat
Bet reindeers wished he'd eat less
Coffee might help more!

12.14.2009

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 4

Last week we talked batting, this week we will close out with pitching. Again I must mention that WAR is only suppose to show the previous year...no one claims that it is predictive. Below is a graph plotting the Rox FIP vs WAR since 2002 (min of 20 innings pitched). These graphs might be a bit more correlated than the batting ones because the fielding isn't part of the Pitching WAR calculation. I did find it interesting that starters (empty squares, red line) and relievers (black squares, blue line) broke into two distinct groups.

Lower FIPs lead to bigger WARs. Again I fitted the points and used the expression to estimate possible outcomes for next year. The spreadsheet below shows Bill James FIP projections for the 2010 season. Using my handy dandy expression I get the following WARs (see sheet below, click on pitchers). The Bill James FIP can be found at Fangraphs and the website is currently taking fan guesses to what the player's WAR will be. As mentioned last week the fans WAR total for our 2010 team is 108 wins. My roster below is missing another arm. I would expect Rox to carry 13 pitchers(?)


Based on this WAG I have the Rox winning about 82 games. Just my gut says that we probably have about 6 more wins in there...accounting for the any missing players and Tulo and Jimenez being a bit below averaged based on historical numbers. As the season gets closer I will revisit this but 88 wins doesn't sound too bad.

12.13.2009

Bento Box!

The Japanese love to compartmentalize. Well ordered and a place for everything, the Bento Box is essential Japan (to me at least). Interesting to me that an outlet hasn't sprung up to provide these. I mean kids have them in "Lunchables"...why can't adults enjoy a nice box lunch...me want tasty bento!

12.10.2009

T-Minus: The Race to the Moon

A graphic novel retelling of the space race. A nice 124 page condensed version. Even with my extreme space knowledge there were a few tidbits that even I never really considered. Interesting to see what was included and not included.
Some things of interest:

1) Caldwell C. Johnson, I never have heard his name but the authors used him as kind of the engineer to represent them all.

2) In the 50s the Russian used a roomful of women to do calculations...they called this their "computer"

3) Interesting to note that in 1960 the Russian's learned the dangers of using a pure oxygen in their capsule (although this was learned during a training exercise on the ground) and lost a cosmonaut...too bad they kept the info to themselves otherwise we could have saved three lives in 1967.

4) Amazing to think Gargarin parachuted out of his capsule to land...

5) Every pound to the moon takes 3 pounds of fuel to get it there!

6) I've mentioned the Apollo Guidance Computer before but to put its memory in a new perspective it had enough space for 4 seconds of a MP3 song!


12.09.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Ice

Water's evil twin
Driver's nightmare,skier's too
Leave it to Hockey

12.08.2009

Song Memory - Desire

U2's Desire came out as a single back in November 1988. As the first single off of the Rattle and Hum album it was my first "I can't wait for the release" album. Every time the song plays I think of two things...my last high school cross country race and driving in the blue Nissan truck with my Dad.

Back in the day, during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the Kinney (now Foot Locker) Individual National Cross Country Championship qualifying race occurred in four venues throughout the country. The South regional meet was held in Charlotte every year. If you finished in the Top 8 you were then invited (all expense trip) to race in San Diego for the national meet. It was a good goal to shoot for. During my Junior year I had finished 11th so I was somewhat confident that I could make the top 8 in my senior year. The race course did not suit me very well. It was a relatively flat course that narrowed into a small trail. To get a good position one had to get out fast which was the complete opposite of how I had run all year. I ran okay but it wasn't my day and I finished 16th or so. It was a rather disappointing afternoon but on the way home we stopped for lunch and I picked up the single. So when I hear the song I think of Charlotte, NC, my last race, and the blue Nissan!

12.07.2009

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 3


OK so we are all smarter when it comes to WAR but what does it all mean? Well it is not a predictive tool, so it simply shows the value of the player for the previous year and shows whether a player was truly worth what the team forked over for him. Back in May on the Purple Row website a pretty good explanation is shown using WAR and Rox payrolls to show whether the team was worth its wins.




The Rox management team should be commended. They earned alot more wins then what they are paying. Essentially this is because they haven't delved into the free agent market and they have a lot of WAR coming from players in their pre-arbitration days. Tulo and Jimenez are outright steals right now! It will be interesting to see during the next union bargaining whether players try to change how they can bargain when they first make the big leagues. Small market clubs are simply jettisoning players once they become arbitration eligible. Look at Atkins, he is 28 and should be coming into his attractive payroll period and yet the Rox just threw him aside for younger cheaper talent. It is a strong possibility that Atkins is done and probably will never see $7 million a year again. Now of course he could have signed a long term deal too so a player does have that option...stability over free agent big bucks...you better not swan dive during that pre free agency year!

Back to WAR...I wonder if there is any predictive value to it? WARNING: WAR is only suppose to show the previous year...no one claims that it is predictive. Below is a graph plotting the Rox wOBA vs WAR since 2002 (min of 60 plate appearances). As I mentioned this really shouldn't tell me anything because position played and defense ability does factor into WAR in the transition from wOBA but what the heck...with excel and a new tool I just found I can do whatever I want! (it is my web page).

Higher wOBAs lead to bigger WARs. My new tool helped me create a nice line through the data. After some simple ;-) math I got this expression...whoopee!

f(x)= 2.38733*exp(15*x- 5.16638)-0.44

So back to estimating. The spreadsheet below shows Bill James wOBA projections for the 2010 season. Using my handy dandy expression I get the following WARs (see sheet below). The Bill James wOBA can be found at Fangraphs and the website is currently taking fan guesses to what the player's WAR will be. Currently the fans WAR total for our 2010 team is 38.9 for our players and if you add the pitching data in (next week post) the Rox would end up with 108 wins (fans might be thinking a bit too highly)! My 2010 team below also is missing another two or three bats (a catcher , infielder, and pitch hitter). Also I don't think Hawpe is going to get 642 bats!

Of the numbers using my estimating tool I would think Tulo and CarGo might have better seasons then what their wOBA says. Rox do have some talent, the big question is 2010 going to be like 2009 or 2008? Will expectations once again bite?

12.06.2009

Winter Running

I hear the snow crunch
Running on a white blanket
Day three-four-zero

12.04.2009

Sarah Flannery - In Code

Another ancient book on my books to read list...funny this list never seems to shorten! Since discovering the library I have found that finding these older books and reading them is a lot easier on the wallet...doh!

I have no idea where this book came about. My usual suspects don't ring a bell and I can only think that it might have been in the New Yorker? Interesting book especially insight into a mathematical mind. Cryptography is a fascinating topic and the work this teenager did was pretty fantastic. Math get a bit rough and thus the book kind of bored me but the concepts were interesting. Interestingly I googled her to see what she has been up to since winning and frankly not much. She worked for EA then went on to her own company...

12.02.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Lights

Meaning of Christmas?
Tangled up, the missing bulbs
Ah the frustration

12.01.2009

Monopoly?

With the holiday over, the comment was made after playing the annual family game of monopoly, why is it that no one ever lands on Park Place and Boardwalk? This website calculated the probabilities of landing on each square and this website does a cost analysis of what sites are the best to own. The probabilities in the spreadsheet below were taken from this site and was simply sorted on rank (it is actually the purple properties that are never landed on). Boardwalk and Park Place are middle of the pack but my guess is that you end up in jail before you make it around the board(?).



It would appear the best properties to own are the light blue, orange, and all the railroads...

11.30.2009

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 2

So last time we delved into batting wins above replacement. A convoluted system starting with a batter's wOBA and ending with runs above replacement which subsequently is reduced to wins. In the NY Times article, it stated that Zack Greinke's desire was to have a WAR value of 10. If he had done it (he achieved a WAR of 9.4), he would have been the first to do so. To put his achievement in perspective, the highest offensive WAR ever achieved by a Rox is 7.9. An even more stunning comparison is to note that the 2004 Rox team's pitching staff eked out a whooping WAR of 6.5 (that team had a record of just 68 - 94 and this year's KC record was 65 - 97 so if every team should win approximately 48.5 games based on just AAAA replacement player's performance then Greinke single handily had almost 9.5 of KC's other 16.5 wins above replacement!).

So where does the madness begin? With another esoteric statistic called Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP. The FIP calculates a pitcher’s responsibility for the runs he allows based on the three factors that a pitcher has demonstrable control over which is walks, strikeouts, and homeruns. The FIP is used because it provides a context neutral formula to a pitcher's performance similar to that of the batter's. In this way the WAR for a pitcher can be compared directly to the batter. The FIP also takes out the contribution of the fielders behind the pitcher both good or bad. Using FIP has some detractors. Another stat called tRA has some believers but it is suggested that at this point, using FIP is as good as anything else out there (or at least comparable). Once FIP is established, some hocus pocus entails using differences in replacement level for each league and role (AL is harder to pitch in then the NL), run environments (a pitcher due to his ability limits the numbers of runs scored per game), the dynamic runs-to-wins conversion, and park factors (Coors Field vs. Petco). Finally a runs above replacement is generated and once again converted to WAR.

So the spreadsheet below shows the top FIPs in Rox history (min 50 innings pitched) and the top WARs.


FIP leaders tend to be your dominant relief pitchers. Ubaldo 2009 campaign is the first starter but it is also the highest WAR in Rox pitching history. 2009 was a monster year for Rox pitchers. Four of highest WARs since 2002 were from this year's staff. Rox won 92 games, there WAR total for a team was 90.3 and so the Rox had approximately 42 wins above a replacement level team. Almost 45% of the team's wins above replacement could be attributed to last year's starters. With Ubaldo, Cook, Hammel, de la Rosa (?), and Francis (?) back next year I can say with some certainty that as the pitching goes so goes the Rox!

Next I will check out what all this WAR means from a team perspective...

11.28.2009

Geoffrey Norman - Two for the Summit

Outside magazine (I believe) had either an excerpt or perhaps an accompanying article detailing the author's adventure. Having a desire to possibly climb the highest peak outside of the Himalayans I thought it would be a good read. Well time flies and I finally read the book. It was good but very little of the book was about Aconcagua. In fact the majority of it was rock climbing and the Grand Tetons. The Aconcagua portion was kind of an afterthought but it was interesting to read. Sounds like a tough mountain mainly because of the amount of work a climber is required to do such as cooking and setting up your tent. Can't imagine climbing all day then having to do all the housekeeping stuff.


Climbing is an exploration of yourself and the consequent deep relationships with your partners. At its most fundamental level, it's not about conquering a particular mountain or achieving a specific goal...climbing is a journey with lots of wonderful experiences.


--Alex Lowe

11.27.2009

Random Haiku

Random haiku that came to me on our star spangled superhero...Captain America

A Star Spangled Shield
The unique soldier serum
Our freedom's symbol

Admantium shield
The super soldier serum
Our U.S. Captain

And Greyhounds...

Majestically thin
Flash in a blink of an eye
Really just lazy

And Jazz

Saxophone simmers
Bass thumps, piano prances
America's song


11.25.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Yarn

Single strand begins
A knitting transformation
That weaves my sweater

11.24.2009

Things Wrong with our Country

On my soapbox again. So I read this article (see link) and it got me thinking...which is worse the fact that someone actually writes this or that a certain segment of the population actually thinks there is truth to it? All I can say is this is no way to run a country.

I freely admit that I lean to the Democrat side of thinking but I also can appreciate the way Reagan ran the country back in 80s. Now in the 80s I was "coming of age" and frankly politics really didn't affect me. At that age you simply made fun of politicians. As I aged, I appreciated Clinton's intelligence and desire to balance the budget. This made sense and to think a Democrat wanted to balance a budget...then we had the Bush and Gore debacle. Politics suddenly became a dividing issue, an us versus them mentality. Compromising and providing an adequate second voice suddenly became outdated. The minority party simply laid low for two years and hoped that policies backfired and that they would then become the majority again. This seesaw battle has only given us failed policies (Guantanamo Bay, Iraq/Afghanistan, and Death Spiral of a Federal Budget to name a few).

Which brings me to the the article above...how is it then that the best interest of this country is when one party simply sits back and lets the other party do what it wants while laying the seeds of dissent with the hope of whatever policies are set forth, fail so that in the next election cycle they can tout their dissent for ultimate political gain. Anyone want to place bets on who controls Congress in 2010? Does 1994 Contract with America ring any bells?

What happened to making your interest in this country number one when it comes to making decisions. Why has our two party system failed so utterly in the last 20 years? For a democracy to work we need cooperation and compromise. We need the Republicans (and Democrats) to bring forth opposing ideals. Ideals with validity that are designed to make this country better. Politicians then need to debate and compromise and write bills that find common support. Something each party can walk away with and say this is a win for us. Instead we simply have no minority ideal, no dueling plan, just a group of dissenters with nothing to say but "NO". Compromise is now seen as weak and siding with the enemy. I mean the Republicans have recently announced a ten point checklist for candidates hoping to gain funds...you can bet siding with the "enemy" is a big no - no! The daily news cycle wants black and white, a winner and loser and therefore any middle of the road politician is run out the door filling our democrat institutions with extremist politicians that have lost touch with their constituencies and simply become "yes" man to the political machine that welcomes their staunch support to parties views that get the most bang for the buck.

Where is compassion? Desire to make our country great? How is that we have become so hateful of others with different views. Deep down I don't think we truly hate each other that much. Red vs Blue is just a construct, a media tool. In the end I think the world is going through a profound change...America's are scared. Our time as a great country is waning, we no longer control our destiny. This fear is being used for political gain and might. It is much easier to lead with fear then to try and establish that we have lost our way and to find it again might require effort. In this day and age that is what I see, the Democrats latching on to hope that each individual can make a difference while the Republicans latch on to fear and negativity.

In the end it is a sad day for our country. Obama promised hope and yet that hope is slipping away. Where is that leadership we saw in the election cycle...the positive, the inspiring words, the desire to do good. If things don't change hope will simply fade as a failed idea. Why have we become so distressed...why don't we want to make the hard choices? Because it is simply easier to mock our opponents and not be part of the solution. Who wants to be responsible?

Without a middle ground our country will simply polarize itself into oblivion. Hard decisions won't be made because right or wrong it becomes part of your record. Easier just to do nothing and blame the opposing party for your woes rather than setting forth your own ideals. We have become the "not-me" generation...what a pathetic path especially in respect to our forefathers who sacrificed so much to provide for us the foundation that we sit upon today. Politicians today should be shamed for what they represent. Not only are you failing your country but you are failing our children who will be left with a hollowed out core of a Constitution...we can only hope they see through our petty policies and make a difference otherwise we all fail.

11.23.2009

Rox Talk

WAR - What is it good for? - Part 1

There has been a big seismic shift in the world of baseball this week. With Greinke and Lincecum's Cy Young award wins this past week, the world of statistics has firmly kicked the old baseball school purist in the groin. To think that a 15 game winner would lose out to a 19 game winner back in the day would be pure heresy. As the NY Times put it, the pool of voters are changing which is causing a shift away from traditional voters to a different and more statistical attuned group. This is probably similar to the front offices in baseball that are getting away from the scout centric view and moving more into a numbers only view of players. First there was Moneyball and Billy Beane and then the Red Sox hiring of Bill James a number of years ago with Epstein bringing with him a new look front office which may (or not) have been the reason for the Red Sox burying the curse in 2004. However you cut it baseball is moving in a new direction.

So what about this WAR? It stands for Wins Above Replacement. It is a complex formula (to say the least) that attempts to quantify a player's worth in comparison to that cheap triple A call up. In addition the WAR is calculated different for offensive players and pitchers (see Part 2). For offensive players it is calculated by providing a "number" for batting (using wOBA, wRAA, and then a park adjustment factor), fielding (using UZR with no factor involving outfield arm skills and all catchers are rated at 0), a positional adjustment (good shortstop is harder to find then a good left fielder), and a replacement factor (that deals with how many plate appearances and awards players who play everyday). These four factors are then added which provides a runs above replacement value. This number basically gives the runs a player would provide over a replacement player. Remember a replacement player is that AAAA player who is playing for the league minimum. Once this number is determined it is then divided by 10 (again a determined number which indicates a 10 run change in a team's runs scored/runs against suggests that one win is 10 runs). Thus the player's runs above replacement level is divided by 10 to provide the almighty WAR.

Now if you want to get even more advance you can factor in how much teams payed for free agents last year and by determining their WAR over the years you can determine a going rate for a win. Therefore one can valve what a player with a 5 WAR is in comparison to a 2 WAR player. Again this ain't your father's statistics. These numbers are becoming so esoteric that one wonders if we lose sight of the diamond? One can view this page to see 2009 wOBA for our Rox as well as WAR.

Basically Tulo led the team with 0.393 (over 0.400 is considered a superstar and over 0.370 is all star caliber). He was followed by Helton, Hawpe, CarGo, and Smith (and why wasn't Smith an everyday starter?). The spreadsheet below provides the top 50 wOBA in Rox history. Larry Walker was superman...wonder if he will even get a look see with the Hall of Fame?


Also in the spreadsheet above is the top 50 WAR in Rox history (note: data only exists back to 2002). As you may recall I am not a huge fan of Matt Holliday but boy for two years he was worth every penny and more for what he did on the field for the Rox. It will be interesting what he does this off season.

11.21.2009

Richard Feynman - The Pleasure of Finding Things Out

Feynman was a brilliant man. Funny how Nobel Prize winners become a voice for their scientific generation. Einstein was similar back in the day and I think Feynman probably took over this role. It is special to have these scientists because they are able to communicate to the masses. Most scientist are incapable of spreading the word of what they do let alone try to communicate much beyond what they typically study. In the rare instances the scientist can not only communicate his work but move beyond that and become a voice for profound thought. So of the quotes I liked are below.

Page 24, "I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong."

Page 145, "The atoms come into my brain, dance a dance, then go out; always new atoms but always doing the same dance, remembering what the dance was yesterday."

Page 152, "The argument that the same risk was flown before without failure is often accepted as an argument for the safety of accepting it again."

Page 169, "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."

Page 202, "maybe solving equations is experience you need to gain understanding-but until you do understand, you're just solving equations."

For me his brilliance was during the Columbia investigation. When all was said and done, what will be remembered from the report was him dunking an o-ring into a glass of ice water and showing the effects. Simple and sweet just like his physics classes...oh if it could only be that simple for the rest of us!

11.19.2009

Hardy Boys - The Ghost at Skeleton Rock

My son had to do a book report on this book and we have a policy in the family to help out our kids by reading the book they choose. Well these aren't the Hardy Boys I remember...ha! Actually they are still Frank and Joe and I probably read this book when I was young. I even tried to read them all when I was younger but the similar plot points over time just got a bit boring...so I moved on to Tom Swift!

Anyway for a 6th grader I have to admit trying to summarize the plot points in this book was rather tough. Plot points seemed to have been stuck in after the fact just so that the book either met the magic page limit or a ghost editor wanted to make sure to confuse even the Hardy Boys. It made no sense and trying to summarize it in few paragraphs...yeah right. Unbelievable how all over the map this book takes you. Not only that, it might has well be a choose your own adventure book because the plot is so convoluted that I might think Franklin Dixon was a pen name for a bad Faulkner. And to think there were well over 80 of these books published back in the day.

11.18.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Thanks

A time to gather
Share in a feast, but give thought
Hunger still exists

11.17.2009

Spice of the Day - Turmeric

Turmeric is a very potent colored spice. Used in Indian recipes, mainly curries, I am always amazed how brilliantly colored it is. A deep orange, the spice comes from a root which is then dried and then finally grounded up.

The plant is part of the ginger family. The active ingredient is curcumin. The ingredient is supposedly used to help with stomach problems but is also a main ingredient in leading radiator stop leak sealant mixtures!

11.16.2009

Rox Talk

Link dump kind of week...hey this is the off season...simpler than doing my own calcs ;-)

Brad Hawpe...who knew he was such a terrible right fielder? I always thought he had at least a good arm (guess 2006 really stuck in my head). Time for him to move on. Mr DH

On to some positive things...the Rox were the best base running team in the league last year. The statistic is based on base running metrics developed by former Colorado resident Dan Fox. Dan has since moved on to the Pirates helping in their IT department and player development (as an aside we published this together back in 2007). Fowler's development and a full year of Cargo and EY should only increase possible mayhem on the bases next year.

OK here is another infamous Coors debacle...pre-humidor. Since 1954 there have been two games with 5 blown saves...guess where?


11.13.2009

Song Memory - Kid Fears

In honor of Chabon's short, Radio Silence which was first published in Details Magazine, I am going to track songs I hear on the radio and the deep seated memory it conjures. My first song I heard that stirred a memory was Indigo Girls song Kid Fears. The album came out in February 1989. I was a freshman at the Academy and was having a not so enjoyable first year of college. Anyway I had received a mix tape from a girl I used to drive to high school with. She was still a Junior in High School and of course when I received the tape I had no way listening to it because at the time I had no Walkman (as a freshman at the Academy you have no "privileges", no TV, no music...note back then there was no such thing as an mp3! and to think CDs were just coming out!). Anyway you were allowed to leave as you has a certain amount of passes off the base so one Saturday I borrowed a car from one of the seniors and had a day out. Fortunately the car had a tape deck and I was finally able to listen to the music. In High School I was mix tape monster. I had ton of tapes and used to listen to them all the time! To have to go cold turkey on music for almost a year of my life was just torture! Anyway to drive and listen to tunes was just a cathartic experience. That day I choose to drive to Rocky Mountain Park and Trail Ridge road. Driving around and listening to the tape and Kid Fears was one of the songs. At the time I had no ideal who the Indigo Girls were although they were in Athens band so that is why my High School friend sent it along. The song does feature Michael Stipe at the end. It is has a nice ring to it and when I hear it, it immediately sweeps me to the mountain vistas on Trail Ridge road.


11.12.2009

Astronaut James Voss

I attended a CU Alumni Engineering event tonight at the Science and Nature center in town. The speaker was former astronaut James Voss, who is now a professor in the CU Aerospace department. A veteran of five missions, he has spent over 200 days in space, which included a stint on the International Space Station. Very nice guy, enjoyed his little talk. Got to speak with him privately after the event (if you must know meeting and talking with an astronaut is like meeting a movie star for me!). I am such a geek ;-) I asked him about sleeping in space, asked him how living in Star City was, asked him if he and his fellow cosmonaut used to talk about space secrets? Sleeping is great he said. Thought there would be a huge market for older people to retire to space has he never slept better (think no pressure points!), enjoyed his time in Russia even though they were still sorting things out back in the 90s. And finally he and is fellow cosmonaut did talk about each others space program. Guess there was a mission to the Salyut one time and the thing had been totally turned off so the ship gets there to dock and nothing is on. Everything was iced...go figure. Gotta love those Soviets...

When I returned home I wikipedia'd him and discovered two of his missions were top secret military missions. I remember those days when the DoD just took over a mission. Wow that is an easy way to get two missions in the books. I wonder what they did back in the day to make it secret? He also did a lot of stuff in support of the space station...guess that was a pretty good gig.

Good stuff...

11.11.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Film Two hour distraction Celluloid magic carpet Sweep us off our feet

11.09.2009

Rox Talk

Minor League Effects (?)



OK for the most part the Rox have decided to become the NL version of the Minnesota Twins. That is, develop your minor league system, field the majority of your big league squad with that talent, and when they become free agents trade them away for more minor league stock. A decent model to follow since there will always be big money teams eager to throw big dollars at proven commodities while sending along unproven minor leaguers. So if this is the case and you have a loaded (or competitive?) minor league system, then shouldn't eventually your major league team see spikes in their winning percentage? If your loaded AA wins the Texas League championship, then shouldn't that same talent be fielded and face similar players in the big leagues, eventually? Of course if your AA team stinks perhaps you have no big league talent and thus they never reach the big leagues but then you would still have an age gap for a few years against those teams...Then of course there are those teams that develop talent but not enough at the right time and end of trading it away (think of the Pirates trades over the last few years, had they developed together who knows...)

So figure each year there are 8 playoff spots. Pencil in the big spenders...the Yanks, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants (?), and Dodgers as perennial playoff teams that take five or six of those spots. That leaves just two or three teams from the non-big spenders teams that have a chance to get to the dance. Now let's assume that those remaining 22 teams, about 8 are just plain poorly managed by the front office (i.e., Nats, Baltimore, Royals, and Reds for instance) and don't have a clear plan on how to win now or in the future so that leaves about 14 teams with some clue. Now if those 14 teams follow the model of raising good talent from within and having a competitive minor league system then don't you think that looking at the minor league records and tracking the success among those other teams would suggest that as this talent matures you should be competitive among those non big spenders and thus get that hand me down playoff spot? The graph above attempts to show some sort of correlation to a minor league record and major league output. Does minor league winning percentage in past lead to major league success in the future? All minor league percentage includes rookie ball and short season records and the A, A+, AA, AAA is the records of just the big 4 minor league clubs.

There does seem to be about a 3 - 4 year difference between a peak in the minors to a peak in the big leagues. The biggest example would be 2003 peak in the minors to the 2007 big league record. The 2003 had Holliday and Hawpe and a young Jimenez. If we assume that the 2007 big league squad overachieved then the next peak was in 2005 which again had Holliday, Hawpe, Jimenez, and added Tulo and then you have 2009 winning record.

Since 2003 - 2004, the Rox minor league system has consistently faired well. Depth in the minors can't be bad. Obvious alot of talent moves in and out of the minors...some of this talent succeeds, some fails, some remain in limbo, some are fast movers, others take time to develop. I think another problem is you need talent to mature together (think Pittsburgh) and for this success to continue then talent must come in waves. If you think Holliday, Hawpe, Atkins were Group 1, then this was followed by Tulo, Iannetta, Smith and then followed by Fowler and Young. As older talent moves on then good talent exists to take there place. I doubt whether one can truly quantify a correlation but for non big spenders it feels good to think that young talent will eventually mature and sneak into the playoff picture once in a while (and even win!).

11.06.2009

Haruki Murakami - Dance Dance Dance

This is the third work of fiction that I have read from Murakami. I liked his short story collection and then with this other book...I can't even remember what is was about (obviously must have been either mentally on vacation or the book just didn't grab me!) I just can't remember if I liked it or not! I have also read his book about running. So with this new book I really didn't know what to expect. It is definitely a curious meandering of a story. Kind of reminded me of Japanese version of Twin Peaks. I thoroughly enjoyed the novel. I liked how the writer in the book paid homage to himself. You know it is funny since the book is written by a Japanese author and takes place in Japan; when I form my visual image of the characters I think of them as Caucasian...is that weird? Would love to have met Mei but again I visualized her as totally like Swedish or something. Is something lost in translation (?) also I hated the references to Dunkin Donuts...I don't think they exist in Japan (?). Again not to repeat myself on this one but I would seriously like to be able to read Japanese and be able to read it in its native language.

One interesting thing is to go to the Japan wikipedia and do a translation from Japanese to English and you get this tidbit about the translated English version,

"English translation of this work, underage drinking and smoking scenes, the English-speaking people in the cultural areas difficult to understand, and describe various of Boy George has been cut from various reasons. "

And finally the book in Japanese characters...kind of beautiful
ダンス・ダンス・ダンス

11.04.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Veterans

An oath to defend
Can willingly give their lives
They deserve our thanks

11.03.2009

Magazine Stories

Wired - November 2009

Clive Thompson's Flight of Fancy column:

Clive's piece stresses the fact that a little day dreaming might actually be good for productivity. A 2007 study showed that minds drift away from our tasks one-third of the time. Daydreaming can be useful because when the mind drifts the temporal lobe, which processes long term memories become busy thus when you daydream your brain could be doing data storage work...writing to your hard drive! Also a wandering mind utilizes the prefrontal cortex which is involved in problem solving. Thus allowing your mind to wander from one problem to something else might help to highlight a solution to your original problem(?). In the end Clive stresses the possible importance of allowing this drift for increased productivity...heck considering how I work I do this anyway ;-)

Henri Poincaré once said that the willingness to embrace pseudo-science flourished because people "know how cruel the truth often is, and we wonder whether illusion is not more consoling."

Scientific America

Read some articles on the creation of the universe which made me wonder...

- Could we not be a universe created by someone's particle accelerator?

- If the universe expands and we are looking back into history with more powerful telescopes then why can we still look? doesn't it just disappear?

- And another thing why dinosaurs? In the evolutionary cycle why did we go towards these mammoth creatures?

New Yorker

Cocksure by Malcolm Gladwell

An interesting article about the fall of Bear Stearns (click here to see an even more over the top article in Rolling Stones). Malcolm restates the standard thoughts about the financial crisis that could have either been a structural failure meaning regulations didn't work or incompetence meaning investors had no clue in what they were doing with derivatives. Malcolm reviews his possible third reason which was more psychological.

"As novices, we don't trust our judgement. Then we have some success, and begin to feel a little surer of ourselves. Finally , we get to the top of our game and succumb to the trap of thinking that there's nothing we can't master. As we get older and more experienced, we overestimate the accuracy of our judgements, especially when the task before us is difficult and when we're involved with something of great personal importance."

Wall Streeet is a confidence game. Winners know how to bluff. And who bluffs the best? The person who, instead of pretending to be stronger than he is, actually believes himself to be stronger than he is. Malcolm rounds out his story with the tale of Bridge playing...indicating that although Bridge is similar to Wall Street is not quite the same because it is limited in scope with a definite winner and loser depending on how you play by the rules. Wall Street on the other hand is open ended and overconfidence can only take you so far before others see through the B.S.

Good article although in the big scheme of things it is amazing how confident we all need to be to keep this country's engine churning...how a very few egotistical maniacs control our well being...

11.02.2009

Michael Chabon - Manhood for Amateurs

The opening page starts with this quote,

"Anything worth doing is worth doing badly."

Gotta love Chabon. His work has always enthralled me...this collection of true stories just made me laugh. It is very infrequently that I read a book and actually chuckle out loud. This one hit the spot in multiple occasions. To me the Legoland Station and The Wilderness of Childhood were right on. I disagree with his thought on buying a set and it being too rigid for children. I mean I loved following directions, building the set, playing with it as designed, then allowing entropy to take hold and have it slowly melt in to the rest of my legos. Months later some piece from that set would serve as a new centerpiece of some new finagled mashup that I made. Ultimately Chabon does get there with his essay saying essentially that is what happens with his kids creations but he was so harsh on the original model concept.
The Wilderness of Childhood served as a basis for my essay about risk aversion. Essentially when I grew up I had a huge (at least for me) forest right next to my house. Probably everyday I would venture into them. At first cautiously, then gradually with more confidence. I would venture further into them with less abandoned. Funny thing was there was this pseudo junk yard at the very end of it had that mysterious dog or you heard tales of being shot at. Well I never had the courage to venture too far into the junk yard, always staying at it fringes peering into the space wondering what could jump out and get me. Overtime in my mind a mental image of every nook and cranny in the forest became embedded in my mind and I would always know where I was. I truly believe the reason I have such a good sense of direction today was that I learn the ability to navigate those woods by looking for certain things and having that innate ability to always know where I was. Kids today have none of that. There are very few "voids" to travel and play in. Essentially they don't gain any confidence in their own abilities to manage their world. Going back to the Lego example we are managing their experiences to such an extent that their ability to "figure it out" becomes limiting. Yikes!
Being a fellow baseball lover, I loved this quote, "what's important was that baseball, after all these years of artificial turf and expansion and the DH and drugs and free agency and thousand dollar bubblegum cards, is still a gift given by fathers to sons."
Big Barda...who knew..
And finally in the short on Radio Silence he mentioned how certain songs can dredge up long forgotten memories of certain events. It is so true...in high school I used to listen to my Walkman continuously especially before track meets. Today when I hear a song, that was in vogue during that meet, it takes me back like a time machine and I can remember sights, sounds, smells...unbelievable
An in the end Chabon says, "life as a husband and father, those pursuits are no favorite subject to endless setbacks and the the stark exposure of shortcoming, weaknesses,and insufficiency - in particular in the raising of children." So true...

10.31.2009

Book Signing - Jonathan Lethem

Ever go to a book signing with the ideal that hey this guy seems interesting; has put out some tantalizing books, but you know, you haven't quite gotten around to actually reading anything of his? I mean Fortress of Solitude reached out to me because of the comic book reference and you know I have stared at the book cover so often that sometimes I think I might have it or perhaps read it? Sit and listen to his reading and the guy still sounds great. Answers questions with real answers and generally seems happy that you came out. Well Mr Lethem fit this profile fully for me. I swear I had read something by him but alas nothing and then, and then, towards the end, when I was getting my book signed, a book at the very bottom of the shelf reached out and spoke to me...Gun, with Occasional Music...wwwwwait I have read this author. Almost 15 years ago I read this pseudo hard boil sci-fi mess of a book. I mean it was good, little weird, but then this is about the time I was reading Snow Crash by Stephenson which was a bit odd as well and perhaps that was reading agenda back then (?). Either way once the connection was made my brain settled down and was glad that I had spent the evening getting to know the author.

10.30.2009

World Series - Game 2

Funny how history seems to repeat itself when it comes to baseball. Charlie Manuel went with his gut, just like Grady Little went with his in 2003. So let me see a 6 year younger Pedro can't make it past 100 pitches and yet last night Charlie let Pedro enter the seventh with 99 pitches? I mean really, you were already down 2 - 1 with the likelihood of Mariano coming in the 8th and you felt the need to send Pedro out? Yanks go on and get that other run and pretty much seal the deal. Bullpen hasn't seen action in 8 days you've got the rest day today and what? Don't want to wear out the 'pen? I don't get these managers during the playoffs...I mean if this was a regular season game you are pulling Pedro and saying nice outing. Where is the aggressiveness, the desire to just win. I mean in the 8th you have Mariano panting, on the ropes, with the meat of your line up up and instead of sending the runners you hold off sending them and Utley grounds into a inning ending double play. You honestly think Mariano is going to give you another inning with two runners on? Ughhhh just crazy I say...

10.29.2009

World Series - Game 1

Baseball, to me, is about offense. Someone is going to have to score to win the game. While pitching helps prevent those scores eventually if the game is to be finished someone has to cross the plate...pitchers can't score (at least from the mound)! So I don't begrudged those that think baseball would be better served if the offense explodes and games become football scores (to an extent). The old Nintendo ball at Coors was a sight to behold and sometimes I wonder what beer sales were back in the day when a 9 inning 14 - 12 score lasted 4+ hours?

So with that preface I turn to last nights World Series. Two Cy Young winners, two former Indians (Cleveland must have hated to watch this), and two of the top hitting clubs in their respective leagues matched off in new Yankee Stadium. A game of possibilities...which why we watch and play the games. The thing that become apparent very quickly was that Cliff Lee was Godzilla last night. To watch a pitcher with complete command and control of a game is a thing of beauty. As I said above offense sells tickets but pitching makes memories. If last night had been a slugfest we'd only remember who won but a great pitching performance like that will be remembered. That spike curve he threw changed zip codes! Not only was Lee in the zone but his defense was on par. That nonchalant grab of the ball, that behind the back stab...wow what a game. Ten strikeouts, a complete game almost shutout. That was awesome.

So last night performance got me thinking...what kind of game score was that. Well it was 83. Not too shabby and how would it have fared in the annals of baseball post seasons? In postseason history it is the 80th best performance and in world series history it is 45th (!*&# only 45?). I was a bit amazed by that but I guess the top teams with the best pitchers do make the playoffs and thus a pitcher can shut a team down.

Who has the highest game score in world series history? - Babe Ruth's 14 inning win in 1916 (97), Don Larsen's perfect game garnered a 94.

What about modern day (post 80s)? Randy Johnson's 11 strikeout shut out in 2001 (91). Lee's performance last night put him 9th behind Johnson, Clemons, Hershiser, Glavine, Boddicker, Beckett, Morris (very memorable game), and Tudor.

Interesting to see what Pedro does tonight...

10.28.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Vote

Our obligation
Thank our forefather's for chance
Makes our Country great

10.27.2009

William Anderson - Ice Diaries

I visited the Nautilus last summer. Walking aboard was like going on a time machine and visiting the 50 and 60s. Technology back then was so in your face. Big analog dials, non-petite switches, and that pale greenish color. It is as if engineers back then figured will just make it look impressive and thus it should work. Today's control panels and switches all look breakable as if now we decided as long as they look good they'll work.

Any way while there I saw this book on the Nautilus journey underneath the North Pole. While it was news to me that this was the answer to the Soviet's Sputnik (I think that is a bit contrived). Nuclear submarines back then must have been a mystery black box. Tremendous engineering to go from making a bomb to harnessing that energy in about 10 years time.

The book was good although I came away from it with an opinion that the captain was somewhat full of himself and although he talked the talked about being safe and thinking of his crew, he was really selfish in wanting to make the first journey under the pole. Week after the Nautilus made it another sub, the Skate, made it as well. Not that I thought he took any risk but he certainly pushed the envelope at times. Although I guess to become a Captain of a vessel it does require a bit of hubris, I would think the men under your command and getting them to port would be the first priority. He became a politician later in life so my guess is that he had a rather large ego. Daring adventure, fascinating, and a bit frightening to think of all that ice above you!

10.21.2009

Haiku Wednesday

Tricks

Anansi's night out
Sneaky black cats spread the word
Treats quell the chaos

10.19.2009

Rox Talk - Wrap Up

Great season...wished it would have lasted a bit longer...the weather did get better after that wintry weekend! As you know I am a big follower of the WPA. I have been tracking it forever. To me it is the essence of baseball. Every bat, every pitch helps a team either win or lose. Having tracked it for so long I am not for sure if it really means anything over a long season (?). For a single game maybe but you can have a bad couple of weeks and never seem to be on the winning side. Take for instance...Jason Hammel's season...see graph below.

Started in the bullpen, gave up some runs, then became a starter and went 1 - 3 out the gate. So at about Week 6 - 7 he is sitting at a season WPA of -1.23. He then starts the long journey to 10 wins and finishes a pretty respectable season...nothing great but ten wins for a Rox is pretty good. The thing is if you look at his cumulative WPA for the season he pretty much appears to have never got much better. Compare that to Marquis, who started out like superman and even though finished the season in rotten form, still managed a final WPA of 1.75. I guess it isn't an exact science or maybe Hammel really wasn't that good and didn't contribute to his winning rather he had a good offense behind him that got him some wins? Food for thought...here is the outfield WPA
Again Hawpe looked like a monster but he only started two games during the playoffs! The infield WPA...
Look at the Rox Star go...Helton was the man and boy did Yorvit earn his pay in the last 6 weeks of the year...and well Barmes didn't do much. You know looking at Hawpe's he didn't fall quite as bad as Barmes. Perhaps we shouldn't pile on the Hawper...question is whether O'Dowd will keep him around another season? And finally the relief corp or at least those who made it to the end.

As much as Street made us sweat off and on all year he did win pull the team through some big wins although you have to wonder if some of that WPA wasn't self directed...I mean you walk the bases loaded and then get the final out you have suddenly helped your bottom line ;-). Morales stepped in when needed but sure fell off. Betancourt was a good pickup...Biemel not so much. I think the bullpen unsung heroes were Belisle and Daley who threw 31 and 51 innings apiece and picked up 4 wins and 13 holds.