11.28.2008

This Month in Comics...?

Yup I am on some wacky comic schedule with all my books coming in on the same day!

Buffy #19
Last issue in the Fray crossover. Have to admit this wasn't all that interesting to me as I never read the Fray comic books so have no real buy in with the character and really not for sure why Buffy was there in the first place other than we get so sort of time traveling Willow redemption or something. All story lines can't be that great...







Flash #3
I have been totally impressed by the story and art on this book. Although obviously the character isn't new the viewpoint is and it shows that decent comics can be made even if they aren't from the Big Two (of course it is probably debatable if the Big Two are producing any quality comics. Secret Invasion had potential but got mired and really thudded to the ground by the last issue. Final Crisis and no one seems to care so again it is refreshing to read and see something new for a change.





Batman #681
OK so why does every big storyline in comics lead to the death of a main character. I am sick of this being the plot point to try and expand or start a comic in a new direction. Morrison's storyline was brilliant in some ways and just a carbon copy of former big event storytelling. Have all the good storylines been taken? I mean Batman having a broken back, great...the leveling of Gotham, good...killing him off, I just don't know. One complaint was even after reading the books, then getting online to get a Cliff Notes version of the RIP storyline, I still had to shake my head. The most shocking aspect was a complete revisionist history on who his parents were...that was good. Anyway, I like involved stories but with Morrison things just seem to get lost. Like the whole New X-men run, how did Zorn and Magneto become one? Perhaps 600 issues of continuity just bogs a writer down...

Daredevil #113
The Lady Bullseye saga continues. I think this story will need to gestate beyond this short introduction run. Not for sure if you can really add a new villain and get the bang that you are looking forward. Hopefully they can develop the character and not make it seem cheap. We shall see. 

11.26.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Jingle

Merry chime of bells
Catchy tunes spread like snowflakes
Ban the Ba Humbugs

11.25.2008

Larry Niven - The Flight of the Horse

A collection of Niven's more sci-fi fantasy related short stories.  Couple of stories about his time traveling character and I guess his one and only all fantasy short story.  Nice work if not quite in the sci-fi vain you come to expect although the underlying humor and quirkiness is there.  What a great imagination!

11.24.2008

Rox Talk

This is an update to a post that I did back in July. The Rox at the time had played 108 games. This post updates through 162 games with both our offensive and pitching...

A couple of weeks ago (June or July 2008) I was listening to the Rockies radio broadcast team, Jeff and Jack, and Jack Corigan made the statement that basically said that as your (i.e. the pitcher) pitch count increases in the inning the more likely a run is going to be scored. From the sound of this it made me go hmmm. Two questions immediately popped up...1) is this true (logically you would think yes) and 2) what is on average the amount of pitches thrown in an inning that would allow a single run?

Well off to baseball reference where on their box score page they show the amount of pitches thrown in an inning along with the number of runs. By taking this data and plotting the number of pitches per inning, the runs scored for that number of pitches, and annotating in a running log how often this number of pitches occur in an inning, I was able to come up with the number of pitches thrown in 2008 by Rockies pitchers and what is the average number of pitches thrown to allow for one run in an inning (i.e., a 12 pitch inning occurred 127 times and a total of 18 runs were scored for a rate of 0.14 runs). Conversely the Rox offensive saw 12 pitches only 90 times and scored 10 runs over the season for a rate of 0.11 runs.

Graphically all this data looks like this:
This first plot shows the number of pitches versus the total runs. The size of the circle indicates how often this number of pitches were thrown. The next plot shows the distribution which indicates that 12 and 13 pitches were thrown in an inning approximately 249 times or accounting for about 17.2% of the total innings pitched. Conversely the Rox offensive saw 12 and 13 pitchers approximately 172 times for only about 11.9% of the total innings pitched to them.

The final plot shows the rate at which runs are scored. So for instance 26 pitches in an inning occurred 26 times and a total of 45 runs were scored. Thus giving a rate of 1.73 runs scored when 26 pitches are thrown. If you plot this rate you get this...

A relatively nice curve that has a Rsquare of about 0.8189 (versus 0.6766 for our offensive). If you throw out the outliers you can get a better curve fit. After about 30 pitches in an inning the number of times a team scores runs tends to mess up the rate (i.e. 31 pitches in an inning occurred 14 times with 34 runs scored while 32 pitches happened 6 times with only 11 runs scored). If you take the equation and solve for 1, you get approximately 20.5 pitches for the Rox pitching and 20.6 for the Rox offensive. Pretty consistent.

So there you have it...it does appear as you throw more pitches in an inning, the likely of runs being scored increases.

Follow on questions would be could you establish pitcher effectiveness based on this (i.e., Cook threw 3,068 pitches this year, divided by 20.5 would indicate he should have given up 150 runs (but actually only 102)). Actually a more representative way to look at this would be average pitches per inning that Cook threw (14.5) which would represent approximately 0.53 runs per inning or 113 runs over his 211 innings pitched. And of course you can turn this around and say that Tulowitzki saw 1,536 pitches and if you divide by 20.6 then he should have scored about 75 runs instead of the 48 that he did. But if you look how many pitches he saw per plate appearance (3.6) and multiplying the rate (0.10) by plate appearances then he should have scored only 41 runs. Lowest pitches per inning average was by Buchholz at 13.4 and the most pitches seen was by Podsednik at 4.5 pitches per plate appearance.

11.21.2008

College Football

AF final regular season game...where did the season go.  Sitting at 8-3 it would be nice to finish with a W but going into Texas to steal one might be tough.  With a win we might get a better bowl but we shall see.  I think we lose a tight one 21 - 17.

Last week's gun and fun has Notre Dame sinking Navy, Wisconsin scoring 18 unanswered points in the 4th to beat Minnesota...the battle of lakes and freezing temps, New Mexico St losing to Fresno St (which by the way, what state is Fresno?)

Week lucky 13 matchups...battle of 1-6 Indiana teams with Purdue and Hoosiers, battle for Tennessee with Vols and Vanderbilt battling, and what exactly is Citadel doing playing Florida in the Swamp?

11.20.2008

Books Change With Time?

As a book lover I obviously keep all the books that I found enjoyable at one time.  In high school I read a lot of Heinlein.  His book The Number of Beast was one of my favorites.  The underlying concept that there are 6 to the 6 to the 6 worlds out there and that every world is created when someone decides to write a story always fascinated me.  And it is funny that the two stories I always go back to is ERB Barsoom books and the Baum's Oz books are featured in this book.  Great serial novels taking a basic ideal and keeping the characters alive.  So having read some ERB lately I decided to revisit the book to see if it held up after all these years.  I figure it has been 20 years since I last read it and while I thought it was ok I sort of got bored with it about halfway through and pretty much skimmed the rest of it.  The whole part with L. Long I just couldn't remember.  Overall it just didn't speak to me like it once did.  Wonder how much that is the case with other books that I hold high esteem for?

11.19.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Stuffed

Stomach is guilty
Turkey carcass stares at me
Sure, give me some pie

11.18.2008

Magazine Update

The New Yorker

Interesting review of the 2008 election. Always interesting to read everything in hindsight. I mean they plug the whole "change" thing and say that was the essence of the election. Had McCain won what would "change" of meant?  Bottom line was "change" was what the people wanted and from the sound of it the cash that flowed to Obama was a dominating factor in helping him to win.  Good all around articles.  Later in the issue was a fiction piece by Jonathan Lethem called "Lostronaut" Weird ass story about a failing space station and the occupants aboard. Kind of a sad story....

11.17.2008

Rox Talk

This week the pitching HOKE are in. See below...note pitching is a bit more complicated in the formula:

Total Bases (1B, 2B, 3B, HR) + RBI (minus HR) * RBI base factor (see last week's post) + Hit By Pitch + Walk + Balk + Stolen Base + Wild Pitch - Pick Off - Caught Stealing - Double Plays - Offensive HOKE = HOKE

Note: that I take the pitcher's offensive HOKE and subtract it from their pitching HOKE because a pitcher's goal is to have fewer bases allowed and since they bat and can add bases to their count (granted very few) this gets subtracted. So for instance Cook had 474 HOKE and faced 886 batter's (he also batted 78 times himself) and so had 3,232 possible HOKE which gave him a percentage of 14.7% or 101 HOKE+ (note the MLB average was 14.9%) . See the chart below for this year's pitching prowess (compared to last year's). HOKE, followed by HOKE (or base) per plate appearance, HOKE divided 4 for runs, HOKE+ (based on MLB average), RC or Runs Created, WPA, and WS or Win Shares (a win is worth 3 win shares).

Obviously the team did a bit better in 2007. Interesting to note that while Cook's HOKE+ wasn't that much greater in 2008 then 2007 he had a much better season in the eyes of many fans. Hopefully Corpas can come back to form and Buchholz continue his bullpen prowess. If Street in facts stays in the mix that makes us have a pretty good pen for next year. Also if Francis can gain back his form from 2007 that makes a pretty potent 1-2-3 (assuming Jimenez continues to improve). De la Rosa is a decent 4th man which leads us to find a fifth between Hirsh, Reynolds, Morales, and Smith.

Now that I have the HOKE complete for both offense and pitching, I have to wonder if it really means anything? Does Holliday's 135 versus Buchholz's 129 mean much? Holliday had 23 win shares to Buchholz's 9 (7.5 wins to 3 wins). Buchholz's average of bases per plate appearance was 11.5% versus Hollidays 20.1% (MLB average 14.9%) but Buchholz only played in 59 games versus Holliday's 139. So although it is interesting that bases are the one thing that can be compared to pitcher's and batters the final number probably still doesn't allow you to compare a player's real value to his team (and versus his teammates). Perhaps next week I will take a look at the MLB in general and find what the top player's HOKE are...

11.15.2008

Box Score Haiku - The Book

I have a sister site called box score haiku in which I wrote a haiku for every 2008 Colorado Rockies game. For posterity, I compiled a version of the box score haiku into a paperback book. The cover is below...

You can buy it here....

Support independent publishing: buy this book on Lulu.

11.14.2008

College Football

Once again I missed a weekend. Not for sure where the time goes but AF beat up on CSU last weekend and is 8-2 going into the last two games against BYU and TCU. All is all a good season regardless of the final two games. Certainly a chance tomorrow at home against BYU but with history on BYU's side I would imagine it will be a long tomorrow. Then a final game at TCU. Maybe we can win one and finish 9 - 3. Anyway you cut it, it was another strong showing the only real disappointment was the loss to Navy. Keep the fingers crossed that we get to go bowling again this year. Anyway I think AF will be tough tomorrow but end up on the wrong side with a 30 - 17 loss.

Two weeks ago notorious match ups: Kansas beat up on Kansas St (king corn), W beats E in Michigan, key preseason basketball match up for Duke and Wake Forest (with Wake Forest winning in OT with a 3 pointer), and finally a once proud conflict between Oklahoma and Nebraska with Oklahoma head and shoulders above their northern cousin.

This week's gun and fun has Notre Dame hoping to sink Navy (have to root for my brethren on this one), Minnesota and Wisconsin...the battle of lakes and freezing temps, New Mexico St and Fresno St (which by the way, what state is Fresno?)

11.13.2008

Belated Birthday - Apollo Saturn V

The greatest engineering feat in the 20th century. Hmmm I wonder what the greatest engineering feat in the previous 19 centuries were...(Eiffel Tower for the 19th Century).  Something to think about...

Anyway I read somewhere, I can't remember where, that there was a fact that suppose the Saturn V had 10,000,000 parts and assuming the reliability was at 99.9999 then there would still be 9 equipment failures. The fact that only one mission had a potential disaster was truly remarkable. Standing in at 363 feet it is the largest rocket ever launched.  Although I believe the Soviet's Energia had more pounds per thrust (?). Marvelous creation and amazing that it took only 6 - 7 years to conceive.  

11.12.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Dancing

Timid, self conscious
Kevin Bacon I am not
Foot tied more like it

11.11.2008

Election Recap

Well Nate Silver with the help of an overabundant amount of stats probably came the closest in predicting who won the election.  At a week to go he had the election at 351 to 187.  The final outcome was above.  I believe the only difference was Obama winning Indiana which had a slight edge to McCain.  Amazing look at an election and because he is a baseball guy I have to give him kudos!

11.10.2008

Rox Talk

Holliday Gone...
In a trade with the Oakland A's, the Roxs finally part ways with Holliday and in return get 23 year old outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, 24 year old left hand pitcher Greg Smith, and 25 right hand reliever Huston Street.  After last week, it became apparent that Holliday had no desire to re-sign with the Roxs and due to the fighting words between management and Holliday any sort of leverage the Roxs might have kind of faded away.  I think this was a better trade for what the Cardinals were offering but youth is always tricky and you have to think why Mr Moneyball gave away these players.  The key to this trade had to be Street has a back up to Corpas and set up man.  Smith becomes another log jam pitcher for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation.  Gonzalez is a young star that is probably iffy.  I for one am not disappointed by Holliday's departure...see post here.

I think Holliday is one of those players simply out for the contract.  And that is ok.  I can't begrudge a person with the ability to hit a little ball who wants to go for the gusto.  That is part of baseball but in this case I would say be careful what you wish for because you aren't always guaranteed the limelight...you might get traded to a team with no more upside then the team you are leaving.  With the Angels in the AL West, I just don't see Holliday going to anymore playoffs then hanging out with the Roxs.  The interesting question is what did Mr Moneyball see in this deal?  Certainly he doesn't have the long-term cash...but perhaps he see Holliday as a 2009 trade deadline bonaza to a team like the Yankees who want to win now and will give up the moon and stars to get another bat (?).  Have fun in Oakland Matt and thanks for the "Slide"...you will always be a Rox Star in Denver.

2008 Offensive Hoke
In last week's post on the Rox, I went through a study to find the total bases that a player got when counting their RBIs.  In earlier studies, I simply picked a number which I estimated to be around 2. In determining my "Hoke" I established the formula of:

Total Bases (1B, 2B, 3B, HR) + RBI (minus HR) * RBI base factor (see last week's post) + Hit By Pitch + Walk + Stolen Base - Caught Stealing - Double Plays - Field Errors = HOKE

Note:  One thing the above formula doesn't take into account is bases that a player moves up but doesn't account for an RBI.  Also although we add total bases for an RBI we are not taking bases away if the player doesn't get a hit when a runner is in scoring position.

An additional step was that I took the MLB Hoke and divided this number of possible HOKE (Total Plate Appearances x 4 bases).  This percentage (15.1%) became 100 and then I scored each of the players to get a HOKE+ number which makes 100 average.  So for instance Holliday had 501 HOKE and 623 plate appearances (or 2,492 possible HOKE) which gave him a percentage of 20.1% or 135 HOKE+.  See the chart below for this year's offensive prowness (compared to last year's).  HOKE, followed by HOKE (or base) per plate appearance, HOKE+, RC or Runs Created, WPA, and WS or Win Shares (a win is worth 3 win shares).

In regards to Matt's trade and Atkins impending trade it is going to be tough to lose 931 bases (or 36 win shares...that is 12 wins!).  

Postscript:  In googling Travis Hoke, I came across this article.  Written by the man himself he does have an interesting thing to say about his counting of bases, "I had realized by then that it was not accurate to credit a hitter with one unit for each base, because all bases are not equally important.  It is more than twice as valuable to the team, for instance, to hit a double than a single, because a man on second is in position to score on a following single.  It is more valuable to hit safely with a man on second that with one on first, and there should be recognition of the difference, in the figures.  So I had revised the system to fit.  If a man singled with the bases empty he was credited with one—from home to first counted one base—but from first to second counted two bases, so that if he doubled he received credit for three, not two bases.  A triple got him six bases, and so on.  A home run with the bases empty meant ten out of a possible ten bases."  So it would appear that Hoke had his doubts about the simplicity of the system.  I think a base is a base.  People with more bases tend to be better players so I'm sticking with it.  As Hoke says this game is called baseball and thus the base in its singularity is the ultimate essence of what it means to play this game...the offensive tries to get them and the pitcher tries to prevent them!  Doesn't it make sense to have a stat that compares apples to apples...not week I will throw up the Pitching HOKE....

11.06.2008

Ian Flemming - For Your Eyes Only

Collection of short stories including View to a Kill, For Your Eyes Only, Hillebrand Rarity,  Risico, and of course Quantum of Solace.  Personally I think the movie poster from For Your Eyes Only was far and away the best 007 movie poster!  Most movies have nothing to do with the books Fleming wrote and admittedly the stories don't make great movies.  The character seems to have developed a persona all its own based on very little from what Fleming meant for the character.  Anyway always interesting and a bit intriguing to read the real character.





11.05.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Duty

Your moral compass
Commitment to higher cause
Do acts of greatness

11.04.2008

Yes We Can!

Wow!  A defining moment in American History.  The ascension of a black man to the America's highest office when only 50 years ago black people were still considered second class citizens.  In my own timeline I can think of only 2 other times when the sheer emotions of the moment overwhelmed me (Destruction of the space shuttle Columbia and 9-11).  Thankfully for this night it was emotion of joy and expectation.  Joy that we are moving beyond the last 8 years of fear and indecision and expectation that tomorrow my kids have a brighter outlook and live in a world where once again America is a place where anything can happen.  A place that shows the world we are still a beacon of hope and that democracy can work when given the chance.

Certainly we can celebrate today but a daunting reality will face our new President come January.  Trust in our country and the world needs to be returned.  Perhaps sacrifices will have to be made.  Can America move beyond the pettiness of electoral differences and get behind one man?  For the benefit of the country and the world?  Is sacrifice even in our vocabulary anymore?  It is easy to vote for change but are you willing to change your behavior?    There is a small 2 year window on this experiment of change.  If progress is not made and fear continues to grip the populace I think we begin to go back to where we came from.  We must be positive, we must hope, but ultimately we must do....and doing is always the hardest part (I think Yoda might have said it best...).

11.03.2008

Rox Talk

Back in June I was playing around with a stat I called Total Base Plus.  See the below link for my early definition of such a stat.  


Since then I read Alan Schwarz - The Numbers Game and realized my little exercise on total bases was put to use in 1915 by Travis Hoke, who rated players by counting the number of bases their hits accounted for, not just for themselves but the advancement of any base runner!  So perhaps instead of calling it Total Base Plus perhaps I should call it Total Hoke's or TH.  Either way in my efforts to determine total bases I realized there was no good way to determine advancement of a runner.  Easiest stat to try and determine an estimate of this would be the RBI.  Although RBI doesn't account for a batter getting a single and moving a batter into scoring position thus allowing the following batter the ability to hit a single and get this RBI.  So with my early estimate I used a value of 2 bases per RBI.  For 2008 I decided to calculate in actual
 number for the Rockies this year.  I used the following table.  Obviously a runner on third and with an RBI obtained then the batter gets one base.  Bases loaded home run would give the batter 6 total bases (note the HR gives an RBI to the batter but is already counted in the HR total so the four bases are not counted in the RBI).
So what does the 2008 Roxs look like:

So on average a RBI is worth 1.75 total bases.  So Atkins who had 99 RBIs (78 actual ones) got a total of 146 total bases or an average of 1.87 bases per RBI.  Not for sure what the rate really means.  If you look on the low end it is mostly pitchers and single hitters.  Anyway that is that.  In addition to this you can also rate the pitchers the same way.  One thing I don't do is give bases to pitchers who left a man on then was relieved for another pitcher.  My way of thinking is that pitcher gave up the hit which allowed the RBI so the bases would go to the reliever.