3.31.2008

Opening Day

Tomorrow in St Louis the Roxs begin their defense of the NL pennant. Francis takes the mound against Wainwright at 2:15 PM. The Roxs are 8 - 7 in season openers. This is the only second March game in Roxs history (we won 9-2). They lost in extra innings to the D-backs last year. Obviously they begin the year on the road with the home opener on Friday against the D-backs (again!). Francis was 2 - 0 last year against St Louis.

I think it is important for the Roxs to get back into the saddle. The Roxs have an April record of 159 - 180 (86 - 86 at home and 73 - 94 away). Only 4 Aprils have had a winning record in Rox history. To prove to themselves that they belong, put some fear in their divisional foes that last year wasn't a fluke, and to lessen any sort of media pressure that befalls them if they start slow.

The Roxs Roster:

Starting Pitchers: Francis, Cook, Jimenez, Morales, and Redman
Relief Pitchers: Bowie, Buchholz, Corpas, Fuentes, Herges, Vizcaino, and Wells
Catchers: Torrealba and Iannetta
Infield: Atkins, Tulo, Nix, Helton, and Barmes
Outfield: Holliday, Taveras, Hawpe, Baker, Spilborghs, and Podsednik

Surprises...not much except maybe Podsednik and Bowie. I imagine Sullivan will be back up in the bigs by mid summer. Redman in the 5th spot isn't a big deal versus Hirsh. It drops the Roxs into an 81 - 87 win range. Again the big questions for the season is the pitching and relief and can Nix be the answer offensively at 2B.

Enough Talk...Play Ball!

3.29.2008

Frozen Four

With all the pub the Men's Basketball Tournament gets, I wonder why hockey doesn't get the same love? Probably for the most part it is because the game isn't really a national game. The majority of the teams are in the northeast (the southern most team is Alabama Huntsville and of course the westernmost teams are the 3 teams in Colorado). I count approximately 55 - 60 teams that play Division I Hockey. The sixteen teams are taken by a method that probably could make more sense. I mean Wisconsin got in with a losing record this year? The six division winners all receive an automatic big and then an additional 8 at large bids go out. Being from a Michigan St family we hit the road and went down to CSprings to see State play Colorado College. Obviously a home game for CC yet Michigan St came out and beat them. Michigan St then got to play Notre Dame on Saturday and the team looked like they had run out of emotional gas. Anyway April 10 and 12 Michigan and Notre Dame play to face the winner of North Dakota and Boston College. Should be interesting...too bad AF couldn't hold their 3rd period lead!

3.28.2008

This Week in Comics

X-men Legacy #209
I just don't get it sometime. You have a great series event, you are coming off a high and then you lay consecutive eggs. This book doesn't have a place...it needs to go away. This was a filler story with nothing. Come on build on something don't give us junk.

Ultimate Spider-Man #120
This must be crap writing week at Marvel (or maybe just bad Bendis writing). I liked the concept of bringing an old TV cartoon character into the ultimate mix but really this story was just weak. I guess someone thought by throwing the X-men into the mix we might feel better about the story but really nothing for me. Even the artwork was kind of lame...looked a bit rugged. There wasn't even a large pane drawing!


The New Avengers #39
Can we get the Skrull Invasion started? These filler issue bore me. Bendis Avengers continues to bore me. Why am I reading this? Why am I still giving Bendis the benefit of doubt? How many more questions can i ask? How many more issues will I put up with? This is crap!




3.27.2008

Casanova - Luxuria

Matt Fraction and Gabriel Ba's really great comic book series. With the Umbrella Academy coming out, I first came across Ba's decent art work which made me expand out to see what else is going on. Casanova's first 8 issues were collected and so got to read the series in whole (which by the way is a good way to go). All in all a great series. Bit confusing to start with, but a bit more coherent as you get into it. Matt Fraction is a great new writer. I believe he is taking on the new Iron Man series starting in May. As mentioned Ba's art is fantastic, works in tandem with Fraction's story. Looking forward to the next series. Have the first 5 issues but waiting to read it in full. Image's 16 page $1.99 is a great way to go. I applaud it.

3.26.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Fools

This joke is on you
A good laugh, lots of smiles
Be prepared next year!

3.25.2008

MLB Opening Day

It's Opening Day! Of course at 4 AM, I'm not for sure I will be up for watching it. Guess that is why I have a DVR! Anyway glad to have the 2008 season ahead. Hopefully the Roxs will continue to make strides. Since everyone else does it I have to throw out my picks.

AL Playoff Teams
Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and Angels

NL Playoff Teams
Dodgers, Roxs, Brewers, and Mets

World Series
Soxs and Roxs Part II!

Baseball quote
"A baseball game is nothing but a great slow contraption for getting you to pay attention to the cadence of a summer day"

3.24.2008

Rox Talk

And now for something completely off the wall and different. During my previous study on plate appearances, at bats, and left on base, I also annotated the weather data at Coors Field to determine what the weather does for home runs. The adage I have always heard was with the dog days of summer and the heat that homeruns increase. Is this true? Well look at the graph below.

Games

HR

Rate

Temp

Wind Speed

April

13

18

1.38

62

10

May

14

26

1.86

70

8

June

12

31

2.58

79

8

July

12

32

2.67

87

7

August

14

38

2.71

82

6

September

17

39

2.29

75

7

It would seem that as the summer temp go up the rate of home runs go up. What is interesting though is if you look at temperature and homeruns the trend isn't as nice. I mean overall the trend does increase as temperature rises but you don't really see a definite trend.



What about wind speed?


And finally wind direction?
Interesting it seems low wind speed good and wind out of right field.

3.22.2008

3.21.2008

This Week in Comics

Fantastic Four#555
Chapter 2 in the further adventures of Marvel's Original Family. Read someones blog who really hates the direction these two first books are going. I found the story to be intriguing although a bit too solo with none of the characters really interacting. The art is good. Anyway next issue brings a big giant robotic Capt A. We shall see...







Captain America #36
Good story but the last two pages drove me nuts. This run as been so good, I just hope Brubaker doesn't try the Clone thing (doesn't anyone learn from Spidey?). Also I hope the whole Skrull thing doesn't detour our series. The Capt A death thing may or may not have been driven by the Civil War storyline. Good stuff

3.20.2008

Modesty Blaise, Dakota North?

Reading the latest MAKE magazine, I ran across a section on Modesty Blaise (vaguely might have heard of her?), as she was first seen in a newsprint serial comic strip in England. Why does England always come up with these spy clandestine characters? A kind of female cross between James Bond and Emma Peel I was intrigued. Seems like a character that could be Tara Chase's grandmother! Will have to give a book a try and see what it is like...I guess you could call it a "pulp" phase! In other bizarre connections, I have had a fascination of an older Marvel character call Dakota North (I ran across her in the dollar bin back when I used to go to the DragonCon in Atlanta! That probably should have told me something...). A kind of detective she really has had no longstanding runs in the Marvel. She had very short 5 issue run back in 1986. Bendis has sort of brought her back as a side character but she really hasn't done too much. Perhaps someone will bring her back into the picture !

3.19.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Lambs

Baa Baa it murmurs
Mary had a little one
I count them to sleep

3.18.2008

New Yorker Article - Modern Magic and the Meaning of Life

Magic - In its simplest form it is simply slight of hand tricks using playing cards and at its apex is making the Statue of Liberty disappear. Why does it fascinate? From Houdini, Henning, Copperfield, and the latest Blaine, it seems that a mantle of a generation magician is passed along. David Copperfield's warehouse, Genii and antimony (both magic magazines), S.W. Erdnase (mystery book of magic), and million seconds (5.7 days) all is found within the article. An interesting article nothing real revelatory but a good basic article on being a magician. Blaine's latest trick is to stay awake for a million seconds. That should be interesting. Anyway fascinating!

3.17.2008

Rox Talk

A couple of year's back I read an article in Hardball Times (?) that linked to another website that did an analysis of the possible runs scored based on OBP and SLG of your line up.  The gist of the site was that conventional wisdom (i.e. today's managers except maybe LaRussa) doesn't always hold up.  So in another look at projections I used this site, Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis, to check out the lineups. 

My projected 2008 Lineup:
Taveras
Tulo
Helton
Holliday
Atkins
Hawpe
Nix
Torrealba
Pitcher (OBP last year was .199 and SLG of .166)

Using 2008 ZiPS the above lineup scores 4.929 runs per game (or 798 runs) while an optimized lineup would score 5.029 runs per game (or 815 runs).  The optimized lineup would be:

Helton
Hawpe
Tulo
Holliday
Atkins
Nix
Torrealba
Pitcher
Taveras

Using 2008 PECOTA's the original lineup gives you 5.164 runs per game (or 837 runs) while an optimized lineup would give 5.259 runs per game (or 852 runs).  The optimized line up would be:

Helton
Holliday
Tulo
Hawpe
Atkins
Torrealba
Taveras
Nix
Pitcher

Using 2008 Bill James' projections the original lineup gives 5.167 runs per game (or 837 runs) and an optimized lineup would give 5.273 runs per game (or 854 runs).  

Using 2008 Chone's projections the original lineup gives 5.138 runs per game (or 832 runs) and an optimized lineup would give 5.228 runs per game (or 847 runs). 

So there you have it.  In my earlier projections based on runs scored, I found a spread of 823 - 829 runs so these numbers were a bit higher; 826 for established lineup versus 843 for an optimized lineup.  It will be interesting to see how things shape up this year.  Finally wouldn't it be great to see Helton batting first and Hurdle bust tradition?  Maybe in Bizarro world!

3.14.2008

Thomas Friedman - The World is Flat

Okay one of the most depressing books I've read in a long time....I mean it wasn't sad depressing but it was a real wake up to the world we live in.  I mean it is pure Darwin in how the world is working because if you don't keep up you'll secede your dominance to someone more hungry and willing to work hard.  Obviously the US is resting on its laurels and the sense of entitlement we think we deserve makes us ripe for the picking.  The second half of this book really hones in on this issue.  As with everything, especially with someone trying to sell something, there is a bit of sensationalism going on because for one he is trying to make a buck.  But there are some underlying truths which are also true.  Are we living in Pax American?  Can we dig out of our malaise and fear of terrorism and make things look as good for our kids as our parents did for us?  Only time will tell but I think this November is a really important one.  Some interesting points throughout the book especially some technological dates.  I mean when you are growing up you don't often see the technological marvels until you look back, such as:

- Windows 3.0 shipped on May 22, 1990 only six months after the wall (Berlin) went down

A "wow" factor:

- On any given day, according to UPS, 2% of the world's GDP can be found in UPS delivery trucks

A "hope" factor

- ...there is no limit to the number of idea-generated jobs in the world...

A couple of "good" quotes

"So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something" - Steve Jobs

"Out of clutter, find simplicity
From discord, find harmony
In the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity" - Einstein

And finally something for all parents:

Today's kids sense of entitlement is eroding the future, there is too much instant gratification, hard work still pays!

3.13.2008

Converse - Chuck Taylor's Anniversary

The ubiquitous Converse Chuck Taylor's. Almost as American has apple pie. I am on my third pair. Had a nice pair of black ones a few years back and then had some really god awful blue and yellow ones that flopped over. Not for sure what I was thinking back in high school when I got them but some crazy misfire in my brain caused that purchase. Anyway have a brown pair right now and next to my Keen's these have to be my favorite shoes. Simple canvas with rubber bottoms...you simply can't build a simpler shoe that is functional.

3.12.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Eggs

Smell of vinegar
Vivid dyes, sulfury smell
Rainbow colored hands

3.11.2008

Yuengling Traditional Lager

Green bottle, reddish beer! Not for sure where I first drank a Yuengling (that is German by the way not Asian). But was in Alabama last week and had the chance to enjoy a tasty six pack. The oldest US brewery that first started brewing in 1829 (Molson is the oldest in North America) in Pottsville, PA which is somewhere between Harrisburg and Allentown. Anyway a good basic lager. I really like how the amber comes through the green tinted bottle. It seems I have been really liking east coast beers of late which isn't a good thing since I am west!

3.10.2008

Rox Talk

Still playing around with the offensive numbers from 2007. An interesting question popped up in my head and that was what sort of percentage of runners that get on actually score. So once again went to baseball reference and dug though the season and looked plate appearances, at bats, runs scored, hits and walks (hit by pitch and reached on error), and left on base numbers. What I found was utterly fascinating to me and that is how the averages for each month of the season were so close. Over 24 - 29 game span each month, the plate appearances, at bats, hits and walks, and left on base were remarkably the same.

AVERAGE

G

PA

AB

R

H+BB

HBP+RE

LOB

April

26

40

34

4

13

1

8

May

28

38

34

4

12

1

7

June

27

40

36

6

14

1

8

July

24

39

34

6

13

1

7

August

29

41

36

6

14

1

8

Sept

29

41

36

6

14

1

8


I then plotted the running percentage of a few of these factors versus projected wins just to see which number means most to a teams wins. Again the number that wowed me was that Left on Base per Plate Appearance (blue line above) which indicates that on average the Roxs pretty much consistently left 8 runners on throughout the season. Almost no change.

3.07.2008

This Week in Comics Part I

Scud #22
Difficult picking up a comic that hasn't run in a few years and then try to pick it up and read it for any true insight. Another reason to track down the previous 20 issues and get caught up before trying to figure it out now!








New Frontier Special Issue
Basically a tie-in to the new DVD that Cooke released. Great additional material and overall a good companion piece. Loved what he did with all the DC comics and how he integrated them in to the that 1950 - 60s mindset. Good stuff.

Powers #28
It has been forever since a new Powers hit. In fact in the letter's column someone even mentioned the lateness of the book. You really lose continuity when it is 3 months between issues. The direction of this book has really gone sucky. I mean the book sold because of the dynamic between Deena and Pilgrim and since her departure to the dark side the book has been a real drag. I was hoping that the Deena thing would be a plot line that would move the book forward but have them finally get back together but alas who knows what Bendis is doing. The book has been an utter directionless drag of late. This upcoming skrull thing better be good because is killing his other stuff.
X-Force #'s 1 and 2
Didn't think I would like this but it rocked. Something the X-world needed although up to this point it never really was appropriate in Xavier's world. Now that Scott is running things he is bringing a ruthlessness not seen in the X-world. Do I agree with it? Not really but it makes for a compelling story. We shall see if this lasts. Poor Scott he is falling to the dark side...can we see a future where Scott and Emma become the bad guys?
X-men #496
Really I am sure this is a filler chapter with a dynamic issue #500 coming? I hate when writer's do this. They put some lame storyline in to bridge issue number extravaganzas. Why did Peter go back to Russia? What was Angel doing in San Fran and why is Scott and Emma rushing there? Xavier just got a bullet to the head and this is what happens? Ughhhhh!
Buffy Season 8 #12
Alright up to this point the Season 8 thing has been going well but this issue is just so un-Buffy like. So Buffy has a lesbian liaison? What the f$&k is that about. Alright I am not interested in an dirty old man's desire to see Buffy getting it on with another slayer. This is totally unlike her character. It is fine to have characters who are gay...I have no problem with Willow but to just throw a character into that situation that is just not right. It really felt like it was forced and just some perversion. Perhaps it will be a plot point later on but I am not buying it. It is not Buffy.

3.06.2008

Iron Man

Saw the latest Iron Man trailer for the new movie due out on May 2 and I have to say it revived some of my love for the character. Of all the comic books out there, Iron Man is the one book I could write. Great anti-hero who has obviously moved up in the world now that he is director of S.H.I.E.L.D. I used to read the book monthly especially during the Armor Wars years. Good stuff but got frustrated with Marvel when they tried to "regen" all these characters in the late 90s. I really hate all these "volumes" and wish they'd go back to original numbering. Iron Man would be probably close to 500 issues by now but instead starting this May we get Issue #1 and Volume #5...ughhhhh. Why do we have to reboot these characters so often? I mean great characters should stand the test of time and not need gimmicks. I mean every book has its growing pains but I wish some continuity existed. Blah blah blah!

Can't wait for the movie!

3.05.2008

Haiku Wednesday

March Madness

Bracketology
Study of wasting work time
Office bragging rights

3.04.2008

Magazine Update

Banksy update















New Yorker
"In Plato Symposium, Aristophanes tells how, at the beginning of time, human beings were spherical creatures, rolling around contentedly. Then the gods cut them in two - into males and females, condemned to spend their lives seeking their other half. India has a similar "myth of the androgyne," but with a happier ending. At the time of creation, the "one" split into two parts, male and female. Every person contains both parts, however, and the two live in harmony, sometimes separating, sometimes uniting ecstatically."

"In a review of the book, Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely, it sums things up by saying, "Our irrational behaviors are neither random nor senseless--they are systematic, we all make the same types of mistakes over and over." Offered FREE shipping , we take it, even when it costs us." Hate it when the literature is right....

3.03.2008

Rox Talk - Season Predictions

Back in January I did a little study on Win Shares, a summary of my conclusion was:

"...based on this little exercise it looks like LA has the early club house lead. They had a bunch of good acquisitions in Andrew Jones and possibly a full season of Schmidt. The unknown factor is the Japanese pitcher Kuroda. San Diego has a lot of offensive holes to fill with losing Cameron, Giles, and Bradley and trying to make this up with Iguchi, Hairston, and Edmonds (who is old!). Haren doesn't solve Arizona's offensive woes (although their young players should start to hit being a year older). What about our Roxs? Well with full seasons from Jimenez and possibly Morales along with a year older Hirsh the pitching should stay fine. The only real hole is 2B. Can Nix get 8 - 12 Win Shares this year (to make up for Matsui's 14)? I think the Roxs will be fine even with the rivals additions."

So that was last year, which really means nothing for the upcoming season! When I did fantasy baseball I used to dig up all the "projections" that people threw out there. Last year I used these projections to try and determine how many wins the Roxs would eke out (the impetus of this study was because Vegas threw out what I thought was an extremely low over/under for our Roxs last year at ~75 wins). Using ZiPS, Chone, Marcel, and the Baseball Forecaster, I determined the Roxs would win about 83 wins (too bad I didn't get to Vegas to bet last year).

So with my thoughts turning to Spring, Vegas usually releases their over/unders for the new season and with the usual no love, the Roxs were given an over/under of 83.5. Now you can't put too much weight in this number as Vegas sets it with the desire to get as many people to take the over as they do the under. It is somewhat an artificial number but does serve as a good starting point especially when you look at what some of division competition is...D-backs are at 87.5, Dodgers at 86.5, and the Padres at 84.5. Where is the respect for the NL Champions? Obviously Vegas is in reality while many of us Roxs fans are still hungover from their miraculous run last year.
The one number, above, that means the most to me is Dodgers at 86.5 (since my Win Shares study showed they had some decent talent returning talent and some good winter acquistions). And with these additions, I also forgot to mention during the Win Shares post that they have a new manager in town, Joe Torre. I believe this was their most important acquistion and will make a world of difference. I think the D-backs will continue to be in the mix due to their pitching but last year they were really a .500 team (allowed more runs then scored) who won a lot of close games. Unless they can score, their duo of Webb and Haren won't mean anything. And finally the one number that floors me is San Diego's. They lost a tremendous amount of scoring capability and didn't exactly add alot of young scoring talent or bring in some bigtime offensive guys. Also throw in the park they play in and I just don't see them winning 84 games.
So that brings us to the Roxs...what do the numbers say? This year I again looked at ZiPS, Chone, Marcel, and added James and PECOTA. Below is a summary of the data. To determine the offense, I took the standard position players with Nix at 2B and four bench players and for the pitchers I took 5 starters (Francis, Cook, Jimenez, Morales, and Hirsh) and threw in Wells, Buchholz, and Corpas. Since most of these projections don't take team at bats into context, I normalized their runs based on the average at bats and runs scored from 2002 - 2007. For pitching I did the same as relief pitchers are difficult to assign at the beginning of the year. Once this normalization was finished I used the Pythagorean expectation to determine the number of expected wins for each projection (used the power of 1.83 rather than 2 as this shows a better correlation).

So what does all this mean? Well a pretty good spread of wins from a low of 77 to high of 93. The average was 84 wins and doing a 95% confidence on the data (take this with a grain of salt since we only have 3 - 5 data points) and based on the projection data the Roxs have a 95% of winning between 82 and 87 games!

Obviously a lot of assumptions are in this calculation. In 2007 the Roxs scored 860 runs and yet none of the normalized projections reach this level for 2008. The big reason for this is the unknown 2B factor. Matsui scored 84 runs last year and Nix is only projected to be in the 50s. In addition with a stabilized line-up with Tulo's pop for an entire season, my hope is the Roxs can score more than 860 runs (the highest total ever is 2000 when the Roxs scored 968 runs!). Unfortunately if the offensive is a bit conservative then the pitching assumptions are probably a bit aggressive. Last year was the best pitching year in franchise history with only 758 runs given up. This was a testament to a good bullpen especially with losing 3/5ths of the pitching staff. If the pitchers can stay healthy then the skies the limit but can we really have as great of a bullpen this year?

So I predict an 85 win season with the Roxs finishing in second to the Dodgers. The D-backs will be neck and neck with the Roxs all year and will finish third with Padres and Giants finishing 4th and 5th in the division.

3.01.2008

This Week in Comics

Captain America #35
Another "build" issue. Yup sure Bucky has taken the mantle and he is real swell with working the shield but it just seems hollow to me. Sure he is fighting some baddies but not really fighting anyone of importance. The issue ends with him going up with some big time baddies but really up to this point two issues with Bucky as the new Capt A and for all the wow factor this is suppose to have it really hasn't done it for me. Where is the boo yah?




X-men Legacy #208
Total filler issue...yawn. Again what exactly has happened to Prof X? I still can't figure it whether he is dead or alive. I mean did he do the Spock thing and send along his brain to someone else? Is his brain still alive? Ughhhh....








Ultimate Spider-Man #119
I hate these type of stories. How many times do I have to read about some person who suddenly becomes a mutant. They whine, they want to throw in the towel, we have some spiffy banter among other mutants, and then Magneto shows up...wasn't this story done way back when in Uncanny when Kitty was being chased? As good as Bendis is, sometimes I think he just gets sidetracked and gives us junk...Secret Invasion better be good.







Batman
Finally a good compelling story for the week. Usually don't know what to expect from Morrison...sometimes great, other times sorry. This one was good, it even seemed to advance the story to some degree. A secret Batman replacement league...an original thought! A compelling story that makes me want to read the next issue...yippee!