10.31.2008

College Football

Two good wins for AF since the last post. Last Thursday game against New Mexico snuck up on me. The Force stands at 6-2 for the season with 4 to play. Off to West Point for tomorrow's game. Hopefully we can salvage a game for the C&C trophy. Again pretty disappointing that we can't secure the trophy from winning this game. As usual this should be a close fought game. I expect to come out on top with a 21 - 17 victory. With the next opponent being CSU we could sneak into the BYU game at 8-2! Not bad for a freshman led team.

Two weeks ago fun and exciting look included: W Michigan and Central Michigan (Central is the king!) Vandy and UGA (Vandy can't get over the hump or out from between the hedges) Big time Big Ten match up of Ohio St and Michigan St (pathetic play by MSU allows for easy win for Ohio State).

This week's notorious match ups: Kansas and Kansas St (battle for the corn?), hey its W versus E in Michigan (wonder if central plays east?), key preseason basketball match up for Duke and Wake Forest (oh yeah be more interesting if it was B-ball!), and finally a once proud conflict between Oklahoma and Nebraska (maybe in a few years).

10.30.2008

Ernest Hemingway - True at First Light

Boy reading the reviews on this one was interesting.  Not alot of love for this one.  I mean I thought it was typical Hemingway.  Beautiful in parts, frustrating at times, and pure Hero.  I thought it was interesting that the reviewers mostly criticized his estate for attempting to bring this book to print.  I guess it was shorten from 800 pages of rambling to this novel.  Anyway it was interesting to read Hemingway writing about himself and using his typical male characteristics to describe himself.  I do have to wonder if his women really talk the way he says.  Because that would be crazy.  Anyway I thought the book was worth my time.Bold

10.29.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Voting

Your civic duty
What our forefathers fought for
Taken for granted

10.28.2008

One Week to Go....Thank God

As a baseball lover, Nate Silver and his PECOTA projections have always been a useful way to try out the upcoming season.  As an owner of Baseball Prospectus he certainly has my eye.  So what should I find in my daily roaming but a website called fivethirtyeight,  http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Developed by the Nate it is an extensive look at the upcoming election and the numerous polls that are produced.  As someone who appears to be a neutral and evaluates the data on statistics I would hope that the data he provides is the clearest indication of what we might expect next week.  I thought it would be neat to take a snapshot today and see what actually happens next week.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the Senate.  With the potential of a 2/3s majority looming it could be a slam dunk.  It will also make the 2010 elections a potential flipflop like 1994 if the Democrats don't get their stuff together and prove that they deserve to be the leading party.  Should be interesting...

10.27.2008

Rox Talk

World Series Update
Still playing Game 5.  What a mess...rain, rain, everywhere.  Whoever wins this series certainly won't have the umpires to thank.  I can think of a couple of instances, the miscall at 1B between Moyer and Howard, Rollins getting hit in the jersey and not being given first base, the goofy strike out call and then the Ray batter getting ball 4, and Rollins getting tagged at third and being called safe. I think Joe Morgan said last night on the radio that the calls have been split 3-3 but still alot of mistake calls that did ultimately lead to runs scored.

Update:  Boy is Selig the unluckiest man in the world.  Everytime baseball tries it takes 8 steps backwards.  I mean first it was the all-star blunder now this...man they say baseball and American history go hand in hand and let's hope next week goes smoother than this!

Rox Update
Well the word is out that Holliday is officially on the trading block.  A bit surprising as it seems that for the right price Atkins is also available.  Pitching is king but losing 196 runs when the teamed underachieved this year could be a bit much.  Granted Stewart appears ready but you are counting on Fowler moving up (see Nix last year) and Helton coming back stronger than ever (highly unlikely at 36?).  Appears Vizcaino had some alcohol issues and he still has one year left on his deal.  

Management has made some talk that last year's team came unglued during spring training when they couldn't get Holliday signed for a home town discount.  Think they want to go through that again?  Personally I would keep him and Atkins and try for the division.  If at the All Star break there no improvement then unload (granted you won't get as good of prospects but at least your not entering a new year with loads of untested youth).  Another thing to note is the economy and professional sports.  My guess is that contracts might be hard to find next year.  If I was a betting man, I will say attendance will plummet next year.  Small market teams will certainly be a bit more cautious in trying to sign anyone long term.  I think the Roxs would do well to get rid of someone who is all about the money.  The money Holliday would command would certainly not hand tie the Roxs long term (see Helton think we should give Holliday a 6 year deal?).  Lets face it, the Roxs spend like a small market so we shouldn't be surprised but they better do better with pitching or the boo birds will come out whining that we are simply player development for the big boys.

10.23.2008

This Week in Comics

Daredevil #112
Plot thickens? or muddies?  Not for sure why the Hand is resurfacing and looking to spank Daredevil and his merry band of kung fu fighting friends (tarantula...who the heck is that?).  Hey Dakota is still in the mix...when does she get to do some butt kicking?  Looks like next issue is the beat down hopefully there is more than just a teaser with the Lady melting into the background and nothing meaningful happens to our heroes.






Captain America #43
A filler issue!  What is up with that and why do all these heroes seem to be on Viagra?  I mean Bucky and Natasha (Dakota and Daredevil, see above), and Cyclops and whoever is most kinky this week.  What is in the Marvel Universe's water or maybe should I say what is up with balding old married men writing this stuff?  A sex therapist would have a field day commenting on what is being translated on the pages...






Secret Invasion #7
Almost there, almost there...stay on target...Pretty decent issue which should be interesting to see how this all resolves.  I am still thinking that Bendis is really going to leave a big giant mess that will make all of us angry (see House of M).  Love Spider-Man's comment about Uatu.  Luke Cage and Jessica were cute (she is a pathetic superhero..).  Bet there baby is sacrificed or something and the New Avengers will have the old team back in business (oh year Iron Man will make a dramatic re-entrance.





Ultimate Spider-Man #127
I thought this was Carnage and Venom.  Really kind of boring.  Art still good but what happens to Gwen.  Bendis needs to kick it up a notch this series has been slowwwwww

10.22.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Spirits

Meandering souls
They go bump into the night
restless, uncontent

10.21.2008

Greg Rucka - Whiteout

Okay what can I say...I seem to have a man crush on Rucka's writings!  I mean Tara Chace has been good so why not?  Have to admit what got me interesting in this book was a free comic book that I got on free comic book day.  It was the first issue and it was pretty good.  I mean honestly if you can write a murder mystery on a landmass with more penguins then people than you probably can write anything.  Difficult main character to like...definitely opposite of Tara.  If you think Tara is a female Bond then Carrie is like Commissioner Gordan.  Not terribly lovable but tough in an antarctic sort of way.  Have to try and dig up Book 2.  Still trying to track down Book 3 of the definitive Queen and Country.

10.20.2008

Rox Talk

Not much in the way of actual Rox talk since the end of the season.  Fall out continues on the dugout changes.  Really not a whole lot on the coaches but seems there is quite a lot of bad blood on the strength conditioning coach.  Little odd.  I think ultimately that a manager type will play second fiddle to Hurdle so if the Roxs start slow next season there will be an immediate hook and replacement of our not so favorite manager.  

On to playoff talk.  Now that all the preliminaries are over let's get on to the World Series.  Bit surprised by the dominance of the Rays (although they got a tired White Sox team and an injured tired Red Sox team).  HTis should give all the small market teams some hope even though it appears to take on average 10 years of good drafting to make a quality playoff ready team.  The Rays certainly showed some resilience after a devastating Game 5 lost (see below):
The Rays were 7 outs away and were at the time 99.4% likely to win the game.  So much for statistics.  For the third time in a row it looked like the Sox were going to do it but no magic in Game 7 this year (although the bases were loaded in the 8th with Drew at the plate).  While over in the senior circuit the Phillies dismantled the Dodgers who made mincemeat of the Cubs.  Amazing how one series can be so different from the other.  One thing I have to call BS on is the continued love for Manny.  Everyone on the radio kept falling over themselves on how great Manny is when he is behind in the count.  Well if you check out baseball reference  his average is 0.194 with 0-2 (0.173 NL avg), average 0.216 with 1-2 (0.187), and average 0.265 with 2-2 (0.202). With 2 strikes he is batting 0.226 (0.185).  Of course with and 3-0 count he is only batting 0.165 (0.290).   So whatever...

So with the Phillies heading to Tampa for an East Coast showdown what can we expect?  History has shown that Tampa hasn't been too good for Philly franchises having the Flyers and Eagles both being defeated by Bay area teams recently. Obviously this match up doesn't have alot of "must see" TV although I do think that these are representative teams that deserve to be there (the Cubs probably more so in the NL). Since both teams pounded there opponents, my guess is that we will have close games decided by monstrous home run.  Teams are pretty evenly matched. Both have good starters although Tampa probably has a better 4th starter (and no Moyer). Phillies bullpen has been better in the playoffs (see Game 5 above). Offensives have both been on. Tampa has the advantage of being the home team (thanks to Hurdle) and yet Philly probably has a more passionate fan base. Tampa won the best division in baseball and yet Philly has 2 reigning NL MVPs (possibly a third...). AL has been dominant over the years yet the Rays are an extremely young team who has to come back from an emotional ALCS. Phillies had a long wait and might come out flat (i.e. like the Roxs). The Rays lose a bat when going to Philly. Manual vs Maddon? Cheesesteak vs Fishstick(?) Franchise with the most losses of any professional team vs team with its season's first winning record? Liberty Bell vs Pirate Ship?

Bottom Line: Phillies in 6

10.17.2008

College Football

AF got back to its winning ways by beating San Diego St. 35-10. Led by a freshman backfield, the trial by fire begins. This week we are in Las Vegas to fight those pesky UNLV runnin rebels. We swoop in as favorites by 4 (started at 5.5). Can the freshman continue the winning ways? At 4-2 we have a relatively easy streak of 3 games against NM, Army, CSU after this weekend. That would put us at 8-2 going home against BYU and closing out at TCU. But as they say take one game at a time.

Last week's adventures include Wash St and Oregon St (Oregon St rolled wiht 66 points and WSU is 42 point underdogs against USC this week...), LSU and Florida (Florida put a hurting on the Tigers scoring 51...), and Toledo and Michigan (think Michigan can beat this Ohio school?...that answer would be a resounding NO).

This week's fun and exciting look includes: W Michigan and Central Michigan (what about E Michigan? Is this bigger than State and Michigan?) Vandy and UGA (can Vandy win a big SEC game? and between the hedges?) Big time Big Ten matchup of Ohio St and Michigan St (bragging rights and is Ohio St looking forward to next weeks matchup with Penn St?)

10.16.2008

The Night Sky

Here are Sol's closest neighbors out to 15 light years.  Interesting to note that as of May 2008 the Voyager 1 spacecraft has gone approximately 0.0017 light years from the sun (moving at 17 km/s).  It has something like 40,000 years to go before it passes even close to another star!  

The magnitude of time and distance is hard to comprehend at times.  Beyond the fantasies of science fiction can one really imaging journeying to the stars?  It's been 50 years since man has gone into space.  What will the next 50 years bring?  Mars?  Could you imagine the Earth being overcrowded and Conestoga like journeys to Mars to start a fresh?  Is there a Columbus who just decides to head out on a one way trip through the solar system.  Would you leave all behind for a one way trip to see something no man has seen before?

10.15.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Chill

Crisp stillness descends
Wraps cold fingers around me
Skin tingles, teeth click

10.14.2008

Dashiell Hammett - The Thin Man

Okay so this was Denver's mayor's choice for the city's book of the year and I really can't figure out why.  I mean it is your standard pulp mystery fiction. Standard 1-D characters.  I think the main reason he picked it was the nice description of Alfred Packer and his desire for human flesh that must have sealed the deal.  I mean come on the University of Colorado's student dining facility is called Packer's Grill whose tag line is, "Have a friend for lunch.."  Ha Ha.  Anyway decent read not alot to talk about it.

10.12.2008

Rox Talk

"We just sit around talking about the old times, she says when she feels like crying she starts laughing thinking about glory days..." - Bruce Springsteen

Yup talking about the last season of Rox's baseball seems that we really just don't want to forget the 2007 season. I mean 90 wins, NL pennant, a shot at the Series...but now we have a bitter aftertaste that is the 2008 season.
So what the heck is this? Well it is a plot of 4 things; 1) dark blue line is projected wins, 2) yellow line is runs scored as a percentage of men on base, 3) light blue line is men left on base per plate appearance, and 4) pink line is runs per plate appearance. I plotted these in 2007 and then plotted again based on 2008 data. Put them together and the plot above is what you get.

Obviously these are cumulative.   Projected wins settles in around Game 60.  In 2008 the Roxs were projected to win about 84 wins throughout the season and only got to 90 based on their unbelievable finish.  2008 they reached a highpoint of about 76 games with 20 to play.  The next graph is the yellow one or runs scored as a percentage of men on base.  This value takes the runs scored divided by the amount of men that made it to a base (it doesn't subtract men who are then picked off, caught stealing, or doubled up).  So in 2007, 36.9% of the men put on base crossed home plate while only 34.6% did in 2008.  What was interesting was that if you look at the 2007 graph the Roxs got better through the season while in 2008 we basically plateaued. 

The third graph is the light blue line and this is men left on base per plate appearance.  The amazing thing about this graph is how constant 2007 and 2008 were.  In 2007, 19.3% of men were left on the table and in 2008, 19.1%.  It seems that 8 men left on base is the Rox's norm. Finally the pink line is the amount of runs scored per plate appearance.  Again it should be noticed the upward trend for 2007 and the plateau that was 2008.  13.2% scored in 2007 while only 10.6% in 2008 (6,498 plate appearances in 2007 versus 6,312 plate appearances in 2008). What can we conclude from all this?  Well 2007 saw the Roxs score 860 runs and in 2008 we eeked out 747 runs!

Did this exercise last year but here are the breakdowns by month for 2007.

AVERAGE

G

PA

AB

R

H+BB

HBP+RE

LOB

April

26

40

34

4

13

1

8

May

28

38

34

4

12

1

7

June

27

40

36

6

14

1

8

July

24

39

34

6

13

1

7

August

29

41

36

6

14

1

8

Sept

29

41

36

6

14

1

8


2008

AVERAGE

G

PA

AB

R

H+BB

HBP+RE

LOB

April

28

41

36

4

13

1

8

May

28

38

34

4

12

1

7

June

27

38

33

4

12

1

7

July

27

40

34

6

14

1

8

August

28

40

34

5

13

1

8

Sept

24

37

33

4

11

1

6


It would seem to me if the Roxs could average 6 runs a month they tend to do pretty good. Again I am somewhat amazed by the consistency between the 2007 and 2008 years at the plate especially the left on base.

10.10.2008

College Football

Absolutely no comment about last weekend.  That makes 6 in a row...what is up with that?  Let's hope we get the mojo back against the cellar dwellers that is San Diego State (who I think has never been to a bowl game, ever!).

Last week's games of interest included Florida State winning over Miami in an offensive shoot out (gee what happened to the good defense?),  Vandy beating Auburn (??? doh gotta love college football), and the battle of Louisiana between Lafayette and Monroe had Lafayette pulling it out.  This week's adventures include Wash St and Oregon St (which is bigger UW vs Oregon or the battle of the states?), LSU and Florida (wow I had no ideal with the OU Texas match up this weekend), and Toledo and Michigan (think Michigan can beat this Ohio school?).

10.09.2008

This Week in Comics

Uncanny X-men #503
Great cover! Is it any wonder that with Land on board doing this run that the preponderance of babes in the book is skyrocketing? So it would appear that Maddie is back to haunt Scott. Scott and red heads just don't mix. Inferno part 2 is starting this winter so I wonder if they aren't wrapping this into it all. Interesting to see this play out but if Emma really can read minds how the heck can she not see that Scott wasn't all that faithful?






Flash Gordon #2
It is nice to see that good quality comics can be done outside of the marvel/DC realm. Not for sure about the whole reboot but the character and stories are intriguing which is always good. Love the art and excitement. Sometimes comics can get bogged down with the story...publishers should remember that comic story telling is a visual medium.







Invincible Iron Man #6
First story arc is complete. Not too shabby kind of weak finish but it is the first story out of the mix so Fraction does get a free pass. Throw in that this is suppose to feed off the movie and you get the story that is pretty basic. You know what I am missing is the 80s newspaper print gritty art. The art today is just too picturesque.

10.08.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Apples Succulent goodness It's the fruit that tempted man Knocked Newton's noggin

10.07.2008

Lego Batman - Video Game

Fourth installment of a lego video game. Loving the games although where will lego go now? Too bad they can't get the spider-man or marvel license back.  Love the dual nature of being able to play levels as batman and as the bad guys.  The suit upgrades are great.  This is by far the best of the games.  Maybe a Clone Wars lego game will come along?  Hmmmm

10.06.2008

Rox Talk

Well after a 74 - 88 finish how did this all look based on some preseason predictions? Well looking back to April, Vegas O/Us for the division was the D-backs at 87.5, Dodgers at 86.5, the Padres at 84.5, and the Roxs at 83.5. Based on returning Win Shares and adding in their off season additions the D-backs were at 78, Roxs at 81, Padres at 68, LA at 83 and the Giants at 71. So what was the final tally?

So for last year based on the team's final standings

W

L

RS

RA

Ex - W

WS Factor

Arizona

90

72

712

732

79

0.88

Colorado

90

73

860

758

90

1.00

San Diego

89

74

741

666

89

1.00

LA

82

80

735

727

82

1.00

SF

71

91

683

720

77

1.09


2008 Standings

W

L

RS

RA

Ex - W

WS Factor

LA

84

78

700

648

87 (83)

1.04

Arizona

82

80

720

706

82 (78) 

1.00

Colorado

74

88

747

822

74 (81)

1.00

SF

72

90

640

759

68 (71)

0.94

San Diego

63

99

637

764

68 (68)

1.08


Well Vegas did awful but the Win Share method did fairly well.  Boy the Dodgers really helped their cause with pitching.  And well the Roxs just couldn't score.  Based on early projections based on Chone, ZiPs, Pecota, and Marcels the Roxs had a spread of wins from 77 to 93.  The average was 84 wins.  I predicted an 85 win season finishing second to the Dodgers.  Looking at expectations the injury bug certainly hurt the Roxs with Helton and Tulo missing considerable games.  The big hole was 2B where we had 84 runs scored last year thanks to Matsui and this year the patchwork at the 2-hole only produced 65 runs. The lowest predicted run score was 770 runs!  

For as much griping as there was for the pitching staff this year, I really think it was the offense that really underperformed. Had the Roxs scored 800 runs they would have won 4 - 5 more games. Oh yeah and if the Roxs weren't 3 - 15 against the D-backs we might have been a bit more respectable too.

10.03.2008

College Football

Big game for the Falcons tomorrow.  Time to sink Navy!  Navy currently holds a 5 game winning streak against Air Force.  I thought with Calhoun coming in last year he would fire the team up and smash that 4 game win streak.  Navy is 3 - 2 and Air Force stands 3 - 1.   I wouldn't expect a lot of passes in tomorrow's game in fact it should be a pretty quick ground control game.  I think the Falcons will win game one of the commander's chief trophy.  I predict a battle but AF coming out on top 17 - 14.

Games of interest include Florida State and Miami (boy that would have been interesting 20 years ago...),  Auburn and Vandy (huh??? two ranked teams?  wow), and the battle of Louisiana between Lafayette and Monroe.

10.02.2008

Neal Stephenson in Person

Saw Mr. Stephenson for the second time. First heard him during his book tour after writing Cryptonomicon. Not for sure if he toured during the release of his Baroque tour de force. I would think he needed time to rest his hand after long writing that story! Obviously he was touring and reading from his new release, Anathem. Most of his books are quirky and this one takes place on an alternative (?) world where the scientist are secluded away and only allowed to come out for set time periods. 

His overall Q&A was good. I always get irked by the author's reading their own material. I'd much rather talk about the process, the ideals, the writing, the edits and what not. But I guess every author is required to read a portion of his new book...

10.01.2008

Haiku Wednesday

Leaves

For One Month Only
See Extravagant Aspens
Praise those Evergreens