12.31.2007

Rox Talk

This is Part 2 of my post in trying to come up with a better way to show a pitcher's effort using Bill James' Game Score as a basis to a new improved system which I will term GS+. You can review my starting premise here. The long and short of my research was to determine how Aaron Cook's 74 pitch masterpiece stood up against other pitching performances during the 2007 season and against other great pitching starts. The anemic 67 game score seems to me not a good way to show the importance of this start.

In trying to come up with a modified Game Score I came with three game pitching indicators which I felt was missing from the Game Score scoring system.

1) Innings pitched. With Game Score you do score additional points as you go past the 4th inning but a complete 9 inning game should mean the most to any pitching performance. Therefore there should be something penalizing not going the full 9.

2) Pitch Count. The second indicator I looked at is how close was the pitcher to the magical "81" pitches. If you recall a perfect game score is 114 points which is 27 strikeouts in a complete, perfect game. To do this a pitcher would have to throw 81 pitches. So for Cook's 74 pitch game performance, he was actually more economical and to me and that should be a factor in his performance and Game Score.
3) Pitch Normalization. My final indicator is a a way to normalize pitching performances. As mentioned earlier I think going 9 should mean more and yet with Game Score you do find high strikeout pitchers getting high game scores of 70s when only pitching 6 or 7 innings. Normalization was basically done to determine the amount of pitches from 81 in 9 innings. For instance, if a pitcher goes 7 innings and has 76 pitches we would normalize this to 9 innings and 98 pitches.

With these indicators as goals, I began trying to come up with values that would keep Game Score relatively intact but give a little extra for an economical type starting pitchers. Data sets that I used was ESPN's 2002 - 2007 best pitching performance page, 2007 Rockies game score data from baseball reference, and finally 1997 - 2001 STATs Inc Baseball Scoreboard. (Which by the way was one of the best year end reviews of baseball using stats ever!). This spread of data (about 330 pitching performances) is by no means complete and for further validation would probably require to look at all MLB pitching data over a period of time (ha, more work for me and probably some database experience!).

From my indicators, I developed two adjustment factors which I felt described what I needed and made them usable in numbers format. The first is pitches per out. This takes a starter's pitch count and divides it by the number of outs. I then take 3 which is a minimum number of pitches for an out in the "81" perfect game scenario and divide it by the above value. So in the perfect scenario a perfect game score pitched game would give a pitcher a ratio of 1.0. Graphing Game Score versus the ratio (pitches divided by outs) you get data tightly grouped with no real correlation between pitch count and Game Score.


Now if you take the Game Score and use the adjustment factor (Game Score multiplied by 3 divided by pitch count divided by outs) you get the following:

From this point the graph shows a better relationship to pitch count and Game Score. Throughout this study I used two landmark games to serve as a guide of whether this GS+ made sense. The two games were Red Bartlett's 58 pitch game (lowest for a 9 inning game which had a Game Score of 83) and Kerry Wood's highest 9 inning Game Score (105 with a pitch count of 122). The graph above currently shows just well pitched games not a team's yearly pitching performance. I will get into this analysis later but for any system it would have to make the games that Red Bartlett pitched (58 pitch complete game versus Kerry Wood's 105 all time best pitched game) look somewhat comparable. With the adjustment factor above Bartlett's game score becomes 116 and Wood's game becomes 70. Therefore although the method looks promising it adjusts the Game Score a bit too far out of whack to make it a logical extension of the Game Score framework.

The second adjustment factor that match the indicators I set out was something I called "Extra Outs" which basically takes the pitch count (normalizing it to 9 innings) and then dividing it by 3 (min for a strikeout...give pitcher's some credit for the pitches they aren't really throwing!). In this instance I graphed normalized pitch count versus Game Score to check the reality of this method. For Game Score you get the following:
If you look add the first adjustment factor and add it to the graph you get this:


Again you see a nice linear relationship between Game Score and pitches thrown. The outliers include Bartlett's 58 pitch game with a Game Score of 116 (on the low end) and Randy Johnson's 160 pitch 8 inning lost at Texas when he had 18 strikeouts and a 76 game score (top end of graph). Now adding in the second adjustment factor ("Extra Outs") you obtained the following:

The orange dots is the "Extra Outs" adjustment factor. The important factor in this adjustment factor is that Bartlett's new Game Score (GS+) is 91 and Wood's new GS+ is 91. What a coincidence! The key to this adjustment factor is that it awards pitchers who go 9 (no normalization required) and for those pitchers who do go 9 and have a pitch count lower then "81" and they get a so called "negative outs" and thus their Game Score is adjusted higher. So from 2002 - 2007 the best games were:

And the new GS+ top 10 ranks them this way:

Three of the original top 10 still make it. Problem with most high strikeout pitchers is that they throw a lot of pitches. So with the best pitched games the GS+ seems to be a good fit for pitching but going back to my original question how would Aaron Cook's 74 pitch complete game stack up (and how would one team's adjusted Game Scores look)? Also remember we gave each pitcher a break when normalizing their pitched games by using three pitches, what about normalizing to what their actual pitches per out? Stay tuned as Part 3 will look into this...

12.30.2007

Titanic

Went to the Titanic exhibit today at the Denver Natural History Museum. Fascinating exhibit. Have to say I am a bit morose about seeing the exhibit and the commercialism of it all. I mean finding the ship meant something, exploring it was heroic and an engineering feat but why bring up the spoils? I understand that part of finding shipwrecks is being able to savage what you find. Lots of shipwrecks out there and those spoils don't mean much to me but with the Titanic wreck it seems too recent, too close to home and with survivors still alive it seemed too much. One person's opinion but it was interesting to see the artifacts just an overall undercurrent of sadness to me. I guess Titanic represents man's ego of building things bigger and more daunting and when fate slaps us in our face for our overzealous desire for perfection it makes it seem all more dramatic. Unfortunately the human element which plays out in this makes the story compelling.
Fascinating how some things survived. Things that were interesting include diaries, people's unmailed letters, and china plates.

At 882 feet the Titanic was the largest ship of its time and built in about 2 years. For comparison I found this while doing a search on google. Amazingly the Titanic could fit in the pool in front of the Bellagio! Other interesting fact was that only 3 of the 4 stacks were actually used. The 4th was a vent and only served as a visual look see. It was supposed to look all the more impressive. The final resting spot of the Titanic can be seen below. What is interesting is that had it been a bit north it wouldn't have sunk in such a deep part of the Northern Atlantic (a whooping 12,546 feet below the surface).

12.29.2007

Juno

A wonderful touching movie. Good movies or at least movies that mean more than just a Saturday Afternoon are few and far between. And I am not just talking about movies that win the Academy Awards...which I think have become more of a political marketing ploy.

This movie ranks up there because it has good writing, good dialogue, normal characters, and it is well directed (plus a little quirky is always good). The director, Jason Reitman is the son of Ivan Reitman...wow, love the seemingly neverending nepotism of Hollywood...or perhaps should we say the interbreeding of Hollywood (sort of like modern day European monarchy?). Anyway I digress, loved the movie and characters. The movie kind of jumped up on me...another goofy undercurrent of information that percolated under the radar. For some reason the movie's author, Diablo Cody, popped up on my screen which then led to her Movie which then led me to see the movie which then turned out to be really good. What can one say...it was fresh and new and warmhearted. I thought Jennifer Garner was fantastic...a role that should be nominated for best supporting actress. We think of her just as Sydney Bristow but this really showed a side we haven't seen. Anyway Cody will get nominated for best screenplay which will win. My one and only 2008 prediction.

12.28.2007

This Week in Comics

Ultimate Spider-Man 117
Good conclusion to a good story although I thought the ending was a bit abrupt. Six issues and it all came down to a big fight, a death, and then a glossy three page hero definition. It appears that we will have a lighter fare with some good old fashion Spider-Man and his friends. Interesting to see if Bendis can pull off a cheesy TV show and make it fun.







X-men 206
Chapter 9 in the series starts to make some sense of where all this is going (or maybe not?). I thought Bishop was always an interesting underdeveloped character especially when comparing "Days of Future Past" (I suppose the definite future X-men). Since he was from a different version it will be interesting to see where they take his character. So obviously something triggers his future and Cable must have a vision of a different. An interesting development...where will it all end?

Captain America 33
I thought there might be more of a surprise of who was going to take the shield. No big royale battle with Iron Man...hmmmm kind of disappointing. Perhaps this will be revisited.

12.27.2007

TV Animation Memories

In previous posts I have mentioned GI Joe has a mainstay for TV (well at least comics) growing up memories. In addition to this was the epic Star Blazers. Hard to believe it has been 30 years since it was first played on American TV. I used to watch the series after school.


For me although Star Wars was a modern day story, the voyage of the Yamato seemed more exciting to me. It wasn't so clear cut. It was a classic journey motif. Having every episode finish with a due date seemed pressing. The characters were a bit more dynamic. The story was more developed, the ships were classical, and the interconnectedness of it was compelling. Looking back it is interesting to see that the series holds up pretty well. It was a compelling story and when the Comet Empire came out the next year it was even better. Kind of a darker version of the original. Very compelling..

Lots of Good Sites
http://www.desslok.com/

http://www.geocities.com/Tokyo/Harbor/3904/geoyamato.html

Also discovered that they had a neat battle game called Star Blazers Fleet Battle System
http://members.aol.com/neghvar2/

http://www.starblazersonline.com/

Lately I have been trying to rewatch the series as I didn't see all the episodes growing up. Boy it is tough trying to go back and rewatch a 26 episode TV event!

12.26.2007

Haiku Wednesday

Resolved

End of year, need goals
Climb a mountain, write a book
Life is short, do more

12.25.2007

Merry Christmas

Ha, forecasters predicted a slight chance of snow for today and what happened...yup about 8 inches at my house!  The newspaper gave a 50/50 chance.  The article went on to say that Christmas snow is unusual.  The chance of Denver having an inch of snow on the ground is only about 36% having occurred 38 times in the past 106 years.  If a white Christmas means having measurable snowfall at least 0.1 inch the likelihood falls to around 12%.  Only 13 Christmas Days since 1900 have had measurable snowfall.  Well we can add a 14th!

12.24.2007

Rox Talk

Since it is the offseason I have revisited some earlier research that I looked in particularly Game Score...see my post dated 7/30/2007. My previous research documented Aaron Cook's masterful 74 pitch complete game victory (Game 101). His game score was a measly 67 basically because he is not a power strike out pitcher which Bill James' Game Score is more tailored to. In an effort to "level" the playing field for "finesse" pitchers, I tried to come up with what I call Game Score +. My effort is described below:

Bill James devised the Game Score metric to determine the dominance of a pitcher in a game. This score is derived by:

1. Start with 50 points;
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded;
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th;
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout;
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed;
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed;
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed; and
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The highest Game Score for a 9 inning game (105) was recorded by Kerry Wood on May 6, 1998 when he struck out 20! In some circles this metric is also known as the "Ryan" since Nolan Ryan has had 31 starts with a game score equal or greater than a 90. In fact if you look at the top Game Score pitchers most of them are strikeout kings (with the likes of Ryan, Johnson, Koufax, Seaver, Gibson, and Clemens at the top). Based on the scoring above it is obvious that a high strikeout game will lead to the highest possible score for a 9 inning game. The maximum score possible is 114 points for a 27 strikeout perfect game. Meanwhile a perfect game of 27 groundball or flyout outs is only worth 87 points. These two extremes pretty much define "Power" (or dominance) and "Finesse" (or economy). James' method rewards the strikeout which like the Home Run is a bellwether of a pitcher and memorable games surrounding pitcher's typically is the 19 to 20 game strikeout performances.

My study turns to those unsung pitcher's who breezed through games, hardly breaking a sweat. When history looks back at the 90s it will probably be remembered by two (and baseball's last) 300 game winners (well besides Glavine). These two are at the polar opposites of the pitching spectrum. Clemens was obviously a power, dominant, strike out king while Maddux was the crafty, scholarly, economical pitcher.

Clemens 1984 - 2007
W L G IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP
354 184 709 4916.7 4185 1885 1707 363 1580 4672 3.12 1.173


Maddux 1986 - 2007
W L G IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP
347 214 711 4814.3 4522 1876 1665 332 969 3273 3.11 1.141


Gee talking about some similarities! About the only difference is that Maddux has about 600 less walks and of course about 1,400 less strikeouts. When Game Scores are considered Clemens had 13 starts with scores greater than 90 (high of 99) while Maddux had 4 starts greater than 90 (high of 96). Would like to try to find average game score of their 700 starts but that is beyond the stats I could find. My guess is that Clemens has a higher career game score average due to his greater amount of strikeouts. Great for Clemens and other strikeout pitchers but what about Maddux (based on career stats they basically look the same). Is there a way to equalize pitcher's who win games with outs and economy of pitches thrown? Is not Red Barrett's 58 pitch performance in August 1944 (Game Score of 84) not equal to Wood's performance (which by the way required 122 pitches!).

Bill James' Game Score is an esoteric stat that very few find all that intriguing. Its basis is another way to define a quality start. My premise is that for defining a pitcher's start it is a good tool and a good place to start (can it be tweaked meaningfully?). As mentioned above the highest possible Game Score for a 9 inning game is 114 which relates to a 27 strikeout performance. In a perfect perfect game this would equate to 81 pitches. Therefore to start any sort of equalization the Game Score + system relates to this magical 81. Next post I will get into the numbers.

12.22.2007

National Treasure 2

Okay first movie...great story, great adventure. This one...sort of a good story but not a great adventure. Whereas as the first one had an exciting back story with lots of conspiracy (got to love secret societies and the Masons!), this one had sort of a convoluted and when you really think about a conspiracy that really doesn't make any sense. I mean 1865, the Confederates are looking for the lost city of gold and some word puzzle leads to some French guy who made the statues of liberty. Said French guy puts a clue on a statue in France (how the Confederates are going to make it there?) and then the statue points to the resolute desks which weren't even made until 1879 and then these desks contain some drift wood with clues to the ancient city??? So again how were the Confederates going to find the city of gold when the clues weren't even in place??? And why didn't the original owners of the drift wood just go get gold? Then the crazy search for President Book of Secrets which claims that Mount Rushmore was built to hide the city???? Again why are we hiding it in the first place...ughhh if they make a third one let's have a better background (Fountain of Youth page 46???)

12.21.2007

Air Force Basketball

As an AF grad I try to follow AF sports. Obviously Football is easiest to follow but I've always been a big basketball fan. Nothing like going into a warm gym on a cold winter's night to watch a game. Although Football is America's sport, I believe that College Basketball is our unrequited love (Baseball is our conscious)! Anyway before the 2003 - 2004 season there really wasn't any reason to follow AF basketball. They were an average team capable of beating the nobodies (assuming we weren't a nobody!) but getting spanked in conference play (see below for winning percentage of overall, grey boxes and conference play, blue boxes).

Even before conference play in 1980 we were a .500 team at best. Two early tournament invites (1960 and 1962) and then nothing. About the only claim to fame is that Gregg Popovich was team Captain back in late 60s. One other blip was two WAC tournament wins during the 89 - 90 season. Overall AF is 602 - 751 (including this year). They have had 52 seasons so the average record is 12 - 14 with a .445 winning percentage. As mentioned pretty average. Conference record has been abysmal at 113 - 313 averaging 4 - 11 record and a winning percentage of .265. Of course this includes the last 5 years when AF went 98 - 39 (conference 43 - 17)!!!! Take these wins out and we had a conference record of 70 - 296....ughhh....wonder why no one watched AF basketball. Obviously in 2003 all this changed. A new attitude (a winning attitude) and a new offensive (Princeton) and AF basketball landed on the map. Unfortunately our two NCAA appearances were against prominent teams like N Carolina and Illinois. We played good in the first half but the talent came through in the second halves. Last year we did make to the NIT Final Four losing a heart breaker to Clemson. The amazing thing is that over this 5 year period we have had 4 coaches! When did AF become the test bed for new hot coaches? Scott and his crony Mooney were expected (funny how Scott couldn't succeed at Princeton and is now back in Colorado at DU) and then of course the traitor who left for more money and Colorado...a real disappointment...I really thought his home was AF but I guess you can't take egos out of coaches. Anyway AF is 8 - 4 going into conference play this year. Hopefully they can be respectable and continue what was started 5 years ago.

12.20.2007

This Week in Comics

Umbrella Academy 4
Ughhh sometimes I think it just makes sense for a limited series to be finished then read it in one sitting. Trying to keep up with this series has been a chore. First the characters are really embedded in my brain so trying to associate behaviors is next to impossible. This has been a good read just not for sure what it all means. Get back to me after 2 more issues!







X-men 45
Chapter 8 in the saga which runs to 13 chapters in all (oh, I thought it only went to 9 or 10!). Good battle royale with the newly incarnated X-Force going after Cable (how confusing is that?). Cable steals the blackbird and is going where? We shall see...hints in the book indicate a traitor is revealed. What about Predator X...how does he fit in all this? Questions questions??

12.19.2007

Haiku Wednesday

Peace on Earth

Acceptance and love
Forgive your neighbor, let go
One world united...

12.18.2007

Indiana Jones IV

Teaser poster out! That means we are almost ready to revisit our favorite adventure character. Latest plot details include:

- Film is set in 1957, making it nineteen years since The Last Crusade

- Indiana Jones is having a quiet life teaching before being thrust back into his old adventuring.

- He races against agents of the Soviet Union for the crystal skull.

So the new bad guys are the Soviets! Ain't it great there always seems to be no shortage of bad guys lurking about. Anyway the crystal skull is some sort of Mayan or Alien artifact. Hope this isn't a revisit of the 2nd film. I don't want creep, I want high seas adventure, no stop action!

12.17.2007

Rox Talk

Lots of Hot Stove fodder last week. First off the much anticipated Mitchell Report was released last Thursday. At this point, I think it is a bit anticlimactic. Although now we have a yin to Bond's Yang which would be Clemens. Although public opinion will always be against Bonds more so then Clemens, I think it will give an out to Baseball Writer's when it comes to Hall of Fame election time. Basically they will probably leave Bonds and Clemens off at the same time and then no one will think it is racially related. Of course we could always take Bob Feller's suggestion of having a Hall for those who deserve it and then a cheater's Hall for those who took performance enhancing substance. Okay so that is a bit strong but in a 100 years we will simply look back and the late 80s, through the 90s, and early 00s will simply be known as the Steroid Era much like we have the Deadball Era. All stats will be qualified and the big numbers will simply be adjusted away.

The Denver Post had an article on baseball salaries, competitive balance between leagues, and why the AL is so much better than the NL. Anyway they had a graphic showing the salaries of the starting All-Star players for each league. The graphic basically showed the AL starting line up to be worth $115.16 million and the NL line up worth $52 million. Anyway I don't think that is a good representative sample because the All-Star line up is not always a good example of the overall worth. So I went and found the highest paid player for each position and results are:
Well if you include the exorbitant Yankee salaries for Giambi, A-Rod, and Jeter then the AL blows out the NL but if you take these 3 players out and fill in with the next highest player than basically the salaries are awash. Basically this says that both the NL and AL are equal opportunity money wasters...just look at some of those names...yikes! If you look at total payouts for each league than the AL spent $1,306,601,780 or about $93 million a team while the NL spent $1,184,961,212 or about $74 million. The AL does have another position to pay out paying about $7-8 million for a designated hitter and of course there are 16 NL teams and 14 AL teams. Obviously life at the top is better in the AL with 7 out of the 10 highest paying teams being from the AL. Interesting debate, I do think lineups from top to bottom in the AL are better and there seems to be a bit more talent but I don't think salaries are the ultimate reason for making the AL better.

12.14.2007

Magazine Wrap-Up

New Yorker - 12/17/07
The Flynn Effect - "If an American born in the 1930s has an I.Q. of 100, the Flynn Effect says that his children will have I.Q.s of 108, and his grandchildren I.Q.s of close to 120 - more than a standard deviation higher. If we work in the opposite direction, the typical teen-ager of today, with an I.Q. of 100, would have grandparents with average I.Q.s of 82...And if we go back even farther, the Flynn Effect puts the average I.Q.s of the schoolchildren of 1900 at around 70, which is to suggest, bizarrely, that a century ago the US was populated largely by people who today would be considered mentally retarded." --Interesting

Wired - December 2007

More information on the Burj Dubai...still rising by a floor every 3 days to a top secret of at least 2,500 feet more than double the size of the Empire State Building...Yikes that is big!

Rolling Stone - Late December

Interesting article on Cormac McCarthy and his association with the Santa Fe Institute (never read McCarthy seems a bit dark kind of like a serious Stephen King). Back in college I actually collected two books that the Santa Fe Institute had put together on biology and computer stuff. Fascinating stuff...Anyway to my surprise the Institute is still kicking. Anyway just somethings to make you go ahhhh...

"Does anyone know another animal besides humans who commit suicide?" - Answer: Dolphins.

Oohhh another Lisa Randall reference in Rolling Stone magazine...the second in about a month...who would of thunk that a theoretical physicist would get so much play in a rock and roll magazine.

12.13.2007

This Week (and Last) in Comics

Buffy the Vampire Slayer Season 8 #9
Brian K. Vaughan's satisfying conclusion to his 4 run mini-series within the series. I found him to be a welcomed relief as Whedon's plot and writing was just confusing. What I find interesting is all the baddie's that keep coming out (and unfortunately it hits me that I am not a real Buffy fan!) Two seasons of watching it religiously just doesn't help me when trying to figure out all the bad guys. Hopefully it becomes clearer as things move along.








Uncanny X-men #493
Well with Cable back (not really for sure why his time streamed father is all bent out of shape about it...I mean kids talk about their parents this way but not usually the other way around?) And then do you really want to send Wolverine and his clones out to get him? Yup X-force is back (what an awful name, I like mine better) with Wolverine leading the charge. Couple of things in this book lead me to believe that the new baby (which is a girl by the way) is none other than some reincarnate of Jean Grey. I could be totally off guard but one 1) Wolverine gives us a "Slim" reference and 2) Cyke is looking at a locket with him and Jean (foreshadowing anyone?) Anyway we shall see...



X-Factor #26
Chapter 7 is the first issue in this cross-over that really is just a filler issue. Nothing of real excitement occurred in this issue. It was a bridge issue. Obviously a bunch is coming to a head but not in this issue. I am curious what Prof X and Cyke continue to have some sort of underlying disagreement...I still wonder if Prof X isn't trying to undermine (when is Magneto showing up by the way ;-)!









The New Avengers #37

Yu cannot draw action sequences...and since this was supposed to be some sort of action packed issue it comes across as weak. This isn't a very good issue...I am tired of this c-lister baddie what about the whole skrull thing...snore zzzzzz give me a new artist and a better plot.

12.12.2007

Haiku Wednesday

Holiday Movies

Leaving kids at home?
Really, Santa has a clause?
Good popcorn, bad plots.

12.11.2007

The Golden Compass

Good movie although not for sure what all the fuss was about. All I had heard about the movie was that some religious groups were a bit bent out of shape with some of the themes. I really tried throughout the movie to try and figure what this disagreement was all about and frankly I couldn't see it. I had more problems with how the movie ended. Clearly I will have to now wait for Movies 2 and 3. Of course I will read this books to figure out what really is happening...ughhhh...more books to read! Anyway fun adventure book, great characters, visually stunning...a possible DVD buy!

12.10.2007

Rox Talk

More Hot Stove News (or in the Roxs case, more like Simmer News)

1) Big deserving contract for Aaron Cook. 4 year deal at $34.5 or thereabouts. Although he is only 1 game over .500 for his career, he has demonstrated that with his sinker and groundball outs that he can succeed at really any ballpark. Note that over that stretch he went through a life threatening blood clot. He came back and pitched a pretty good Game 4 of the Series. I don't think he has the stuff to go up against Number 1 starters week in and week out but he does provide innings and keeps the Roxs in play.
2) LaTroy Hawkins leaves for 500,000 to go play in New York...good riddance...everyone will remember his lights out pitching late in the season but really his other 140 games was a mixed bag. He gave up alot of leads and had one of the perennial worst WPA for any relievers. I am not sad to see him go...he can have fun in the circus...and getting to see the Sox for 20+ games...have fun with that!
3) Well Iguchi signed with San Diego...so much for people wanting to come to Colorado...which I think is just a trendy thing to say to try to get more money from someone else. With Carroll being traded away to the Indians it leaves a gaping hole in the right side of the infield. Perhaps Nix is closer than we thought? Trial by fire...see if he catches lightning like Tulo? We shall see...
4) I was un-informed with Lopez. He had elbow surgery and won't be able to pitch until August 2008 so as a possible arm in the starting rotation it would only be for a late season run.

Finally an update to my pitching stuff from last week. Claiming that the Roxs won the most games under Francis was a true statement but an unfair comparison due to his 34 starts (obviously more opportunities allow for the possibility of more wins). In an effort to correct for this I basically derived a team win per start which reveals that Morales was the hot hand:

12.07.2007

Larry Niven - A Gift From Earth

Niven's books are generally pretty "sci-fi" which is why I particularly like him. Over the years he has also written a fair amount of sci-fi ethics specifically what it seems like dealing with off world colonies (Bladerunner on the brain) and settling them. This book was written in 1968 and basically deals with organ banks. The planet founders generally taking the colonist who misbehave, incarcerating them, farming their organs, and recycling these organs to keep the founders alive. Interesting that a book I read a while back (and seems to be somewhat similar), Building Harlequin's Moon by Niven and Brenda Cooper, in which a group of founders terraform a planet and allow colonist to be slaves in creating fuel so that the founders can continue on. Anywau the fate of the colony becomes wrapped up in a colonist Matt Keller who has a mutation where people seem to forget or overlook him. Sort of like a luck mutation (and I swear either Niven or perhaps Heinlein had a character who was bred to be lucky????). Anyway good read nothing great but if Niven wants a part of JK Rowling then he has her on "like a cloak of invisibility" i.e. someone describing Matt's ability.

12.06.2007

U2 - The Joshua Tree 20th Anniversary


The greatest album ever...at least in my opinion. I believe every person has that one album that means something in their life. My guess is the album comes out when you are between 15 - 19 years old. It defines that period when music becomes your friend, when things are going good or bad it is something you can turn to, and it is a complete saga where every song means something. It writes itself to your brain so that when you hear a song it instantly transports you back to that period of your life. The Joshua Tree is that album for me...cut loose in the stores in February 1987, I had just turned 16 and was a sophomore in high school. I first heard the album on my way to a track meet, a friend had stopped off at the record store (yup still a record store back then) and purchased the cassette. On the drive, I listened to the album without much thought. Soon after the songs became standards on the radio and With or Without You became my first U2 song. I would turn the radio on just to hear the song. Later that summer I took a trip to Washington and Oregon and while in Eugene, Oregon I picked up the album and listened to it the entire trip. From the quiet opening buildup, to Edge's guitar riffs in With or Without You, to the politics of Bullet it became my all time favorite.

Album Listing:
1. Where The Streets Have No Name (I wanna run...)
2. I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For (I have climbed highest mountain...)
3. With Or Without You (See the stone set in your eyes...)
4. Bullet The Blue Sky (And he's peelin' off those dollar bills)
5. Running To Stand Still (See seven towers, but I only see one way out...)
6. Red Hill Mining Town (And we stooped so low, to reach so high)
7. In God's Country (Sleep comes like a drug in God's country)
8. Trip Through Your Wires (Still shakin', still in pain)
9. One Tree Hill (I'll see you again when the stars fall from the sky)
10. Exit (He could see the stars shine, like nails in the night)
11. Mothers of the Disappeared
Pop references that I remember...Ross and Rachael walked off together for the first time with "With or Without You", personal favorite cover is Pet Shop Boys, "Where the Streets..."

12.05.2007

Haiku Wednesday

Office Parties

Everyone dressed up
Beer in hand, awkward like prom
Good Monday stories

12.04.2007

This Week in Comics

X-men #205
Chapter 5 in the Messiah Complex. The issue with the "surprise" guest. Have to admit "Cable" never really connected with me. His growth in the X-saga kind of took off when I went through a period of non-X-ness in my life. I was in college, lost track of the group, and this sort of culminated in the X-cutioners saga which I missed all together. Needless to say I just started to read the X-men and then he disappeared and now he is back! Wolverine has had some great lines in this series especially to Gambit, "Cause I'm gonna have to take your first answer"





Ultimate Spider-Man 116
Great spread on Page 5, really love Immonen's art. I've said it before, but it has really added something to this books readability. Bendis quote of the issue, "No, Kenny Rodgers." Kitty --> "Good Chicken" Peter (in regards to who she is dating). Kind of a filler issue to get to the beat down in next issue with the Green Goblin and Hobgoblin. Should be good...same spider time, same spider channel...


Essential X-men Volume 8
Collecting issues 229 - 242, X-factor Inferno books, as well as the Art Adams annual this series was spectacular in the leading up to the last good mega X cross-over which was Inferno (Messiah Complex is looking like a winner). Of the late 80s crossover this one was probably my 3rd favorite behind Fall of the Mutants and the Mutant Massacre but Inferno probably was the ultimate result of all these previous books and leading to the reunited X-teams (up this point the original X-team and the new X-teams were separate groups with unification stemming from this event). Also it conveniently cleared up the whole Maddie issue which really isn't a good time for Scott. First he shacks up with the Jean look alike then drops her once Jean comes back. Making her a clone and a Sinister appendage sort of makes it ok for Scott but up until this point kind of a bummer for our hero. Anyway a great re-read of the stretch of x-books which to me was the renaissance period of great x-stories. Claremont was at his peak and the two best x-artists, Lee and Silvestri.



12.03.2007

Rox Talk

Leading off with some personnel issues. Matsui did sign with the Astros for a 3 year deal worth $16.5 million. The Roxs offered a two year deal and stated that they were concern with his lower back and that is why they did not throw a 3rd year in. I respect that from the front office especially with Jayson Nix probably ready in 2 years anyway. Guess you can't begrudge players if the money and years are there, but from a fans perspective I think sometimes maybe a player should give some consideration to the a team that gave him another chance. Two years ago Matsui was washed up, on the scrap heap, and dumped by the Mets. Oh well that's life in the bigs. Possible second basemen of interest out there is still with Loretta, Iguchi, and one interesting one is Uggla from Marlins. Second piece of good news is that Herges did sign with the Roxs so that is good. No big news from Nashville but we shall see...Dealing Dan seems to have backed off on his earlier quick draws.

Research for the week is an additional look see at the Roxs starting pitching.

So the basic stats (plus game score which you read about here):


Basically Francis was the work horse for the team. Fogg was the surprise and savior. The first five pitchers accounted for 75% of the starts and overall the starting pitching accounted for 64.1% of the innings pitched for the entire team. When Lopez pitched, he won (unfortunately he really never was a reliable starter and got shut down early due to injuries). If a quality start is defined as a game score of 50 then only Francis and Jimenez averaged a quality start during the season. Francis, Cook, and Jimenez all had a 77 game score which led the team. Fogg had the distinction of having the lowest game score of 4! Based on the team's success this has to be the best pitching squad put out by the Roxs in their team history.


In addition to the the above stats, I also looked at some other wacky stuff. One question I have always had was what would be a starter's record if he won (or loss) those games because of relievers (or was bailed out by the offensive or relievers and got the no decision)? Also which pitcher actually pitches with the lead?


First Part:


First off a starting pitcher must pitch 5 innings to get a win. Hence Bautista above who only pitched two innings and left with a no decision did actually get a win in my book because he started and he left the mound leading. Hirsh had alot of starts like this as well, leaving before the 5th but leaving with the lead. To me a Starter is the workhorse, there are some middle relievers who get a lot of innings, even some to rival a starter, but to me it is the starter who is asked to go out and give innings. Even through all the changes in pitching, every team looks for 5 guys who can go out and throw at least 6 innings every 5 days. Good pitching still seems to conquer good hitting and most teams need reliable starters to make it deep into the playoffs (see Yankees 2006 and 2007!). Therefore my look above is to give Starters a bit more credit for what they do. In essence I am basically removing the relievers from the equation and innings pitch requirement and simply determining if the starter left with a win, loss, or tie.


So in normal speak the Roxs starters were 55 - 47 (.539 Winning Percentage) with 61 no decisions. In my revised look the starters were 84 - 60 (.583) with 19 ties. Did Francis win 20 games? Well according to my look he would have finished 19 - 13 - 2 (meaning the relief corps blew 2 games in which he left with the lead and the offensive bailed him out 4 times after leaving a game with a loss). When looked at this way only Francis and Lopez actually had a worst winning percentage when these extra W/L are added. The unluckiest? Among the Top 5 inning getters it was Fogg or Jimenez as Fogg had 5 extra wins and Jimenez 4. Cook had the best winning percentage upgrade going 8 - 7 to 11 - 6. Does this revisionist look at pitching stats mean anything? Probably not...over a pitcher's career my guess all the blown saves or offensive help probably average out (although I would like to look at all the MLB starters...). To me the bottom line is what does the team do when a certain Starter is on the mound. Bottom line of the graph below is that when Francis is on the mound the Roxs won 22 times (out of 34 starts). Even Hirsh who really had an up and down season had the team win 10 times when he started (out of 19 starts). To me it means that 2008 does have some upside when it comes to pitching. With Francis, Cook, Hirsh, Jimenez, and Morales, we have some depth.


Second Part:


If the above study looked at the underbelly of starting pitching (who has luck, no luck, or just happens to pitch that day the offensive was asleep) this next look is what does the Starter do for themselves (i.e. keeps the team in the game by keeping the lead or keeping the game tied).


Of the Big 5, Cook pitched with the lead or tied 70% of the time. Overall during the season the Starters for the entire season pitched with the lead 67% which seems high to me but the inning eaters were all around 66% with only Hirsh be subpar at around 52%. Obviously some more seasoning is required for him but from above even by pitching from behind the Roxs still mentioned to win. Which kind of makes all this study of pitching somewhat irrelevant. I need to research some past seasons to see if any of these trends actually hold up over seasons or if there is just randomness from season to season.