Rox Talk

This is Part 2 of my post in trying to come up with a better way to show a pitcher's effort using Bill James' Game Score as a basis to a new improved system which I will term GS+. You can review my starting premise here. The long and short of my research was to determine how Aaron Cook's 74 pitch masterpiece stood up against other pitching performances during the 2007 season and against other great pitching starts. The anemic 67 game score seems to me not a good way to show the importance of this start.

In trying to come up with a modified Game Score I came with three game pitching indicators which I felt was missing from the Game Score scoring system.

1) Innings pitched. With Game Score you do score additional points as you go past the 4th inning but a complete 9 inning game should mean the most to any pitching performance. Therefore there should be something penalizing not going the full 9.

2) Pitch Count. The second indicator I looked at is how close was the pitcher to the magical "81" pitches. If you recall a perfect game score is 114 points which is 27 strikeouts in a complete, perfect game. To do this a pitcher would have to throw 81 pitches. So for Cook's 74 pitch game performance, he was actually more economical and to me and that should be a factor in his performance and Game Score.

3) Pitch Normalization. My final indicator is a a way to normalize pitching performances. As mentioned earlier I think going 9 should mean more and yet with Game Score you do find high strikeout pitchers getting high game scores of 70s when only pitching 6 or 7 innings. Normalization was basically done to determine the amount of pitches from 81 in 9 innings. For instance, if a pitcher goes 7 innings and has 76 pitches we would normalize this to 9 innings and 98 pitches.

With these indicators as goals, I began trying to come up with values that would keep Game Score relatively intact but give a little extra for an economical type starting pitchers. Data sets that I used was ESPN's 2002 - 2007 best pitching performance page, 2007 Rockies game score data from baseball reference, and finally 1997 - 2001 STATs Inc Baseball Scoreboard. (Which by the way was one of the best year end reviews of baseball using stats ever!). This spread of data (about 330 pitching performances) is by no means complete and for further validation would probably require to look at all MLB pitching data over a period of time (ha, more work for me and probably some database experience!).

From my indicators, I developed two adjustment factors which I felt described what I needed and made them usable in numbers format. The first is pitches per out. This takes a starter's pitch count and divides it by the number of outs. I then take 3 which is a minimum number of pitches for an out in the "81" perfect game scenario and divide it by the above value. So in the perfect scenario a perfect game score pitched game would give a pitcher a ratio of 1.0. Graphing Game Score versus the ratio (pitches divided by outs) you get data tightly grouped with no real correlation between pitch count and Game Score.

Now if you take the Game Score and use the adjustment factor (Game Score multiplied by 3 divided by pitch count divided by outs) you get the following:

From this point the graph shows a better relationship to pitch count and Game Score. Throughout this study I used two landmark games to serve as a guide of whether this GS+ made sense. The two games were Red Bartlett's 58 pitch game (lowest for a 9 inning game which had a Game Score of 83) and Kerry Wood's highest 9 inning Game Score (105 with a pitch count of 122). The graph above currently shows just well pitched games not a team's yearly pitching performance. I will get into this analysis later but for any system it would have to make the games that Red Bartlett pitched (58 pitch complete game versus Kerry Wood's 105 all time best pitched game) look somewhat comparable. With the adjustment factor above Bartlett's game score becomes 116 and Wood's game becomes 70. Therefore although the method looks promising it adjusts the Game Score a bit too far out of whack to make it a logical extension of the Game Score framework.

The second adjustment factor that match the indicators I set out was something I called "Extra Outs" which basically takes the pitch count (normalizing it to 9 innings) and then dividing it by 3 (min for a strikeout...give pitcher's some credit for the pitches they aren't really throwing!). In this instance I graphed normalized pitch count versus Game Score to check the reality of this method. For Game Score you get the following:
If you look add the first adjustment factor and add it to the graph you get this:

Again you see a nice linear relationship between Game Score and pitches thrown. The outliers include Bartlett's 58 pitch game with a Game Score of 116 (on the low end) and Randy Johnson's 160 pitch 8 inning lost at Texas when he had 18 strikeouts and a 76 game score (top end of graph). Now adding in the second adjustment factor ("Extra Outs") you obtained the following:

The orange dots is the "Extra Outs" adjustment factor. The important factor in this adjustment factor is that Bartlett's new Game Score (GS+) is 91 and Wood's new GS+ is 91. What a coincidence! The key to this adjustment factor is that it awards pitchers who go 9 (no normalization required) and for those pitchers who do go 9 and have a pitch count lower then "81" and they get a so called "negative outs" and thus their Game Score is adjusted higher. So from 2002 - 2007 the best games were:

And the new GS+ top 10 ranks them this way:

Three of the original top 10 still make it. Problem with most high strikeout pitchers is that they throw a lot of pitches. So with the best pitched games the GS+ seems to be a good fit for pitching but going back to my original question how would Aaron Cook's 74 pitch complete game stack up (and how would one team's adjusted Game Scores look)? Also remember we gave each pitcher a break when normalizing their pitched games by using three pitches, what about normalizing to what their actual pitches per out? Stay tuned as Part 3 will look into this...

Titanic

Went to the Titanic exhibit today at the Denver Natural History Museum. Fascinating exhibit. Have to say I am a bit morose about seeing the exhibit and the commercialism of it all. I mean finding the ship meant something, exploring it was heroic and an engineering feat but why bring up the spoils? I understand that part of finding shipwrecks is being able to savage what you find. Lots of shipwrecks out there and those spoils don't mean much to me but with the Titanic wreck it seems too recent, too close to home and with survivors still alive it seemed too much. One person's opinion but it was interesting to see the artifacts just an overall undercurrent of sadness to me. I guess Titanic represents man's ego of building things bigger and more daunting and when fate slaps us in our face for our overzealous desire for perfection it makes it seem all more dramatic. Unfortunately the human element which plays out in this makes the story compelling.

Fascinating how some things survived. Things that were interesting include diaries, people's unmailed letters, and china plates.

At 882 feet the Titanic was the largest ship of its time and built in about 2 years. For comparison I found this while doing a search on google. Amazingly the Titanic could fit in the pool in front of the Bellagio! Other interesting fact was that only 3 of the 4 stacks were actually used. The 4th was a vent and only served as a visual look see. It was supposed to look all the more impressive. The final resting spot of the Titanic can be seen below. What is interesting is that had it been a bit north it wouldn't have sunk in such a deep part of the Northern Atlantic (a whooping 12,546 feet below the surface).

Juno

A wonderful touching movie. Good movies or at least movies that mean more than just a Saturday Afternoon are few and far between. And I am not just talking about movies that win the Academy Awards...which I think have become more of a political marketing ploy.

This movie ranks up there because it has good writing, good dialogue, normal characters, and it is well directed (plus a little quirky is always good). The director, Jason Reitman is the son of Ivan Reitman...wow, love the seemingly neverending nepotism of Hollywood...or perhaps should we say the interbreeding of Hollywood (sort of like modern day European monarchy?). Anyway I digress, loved the movie and characters. The movie kind of jumped up on me...another goofy undercurrent of information that percolated under the radar. For some reason the movie's author, Diablo Cody, popped up on my screen which then led to her Movie which then led me to see the movie which then turned out to be really good. What can one say...it was fresh and new and warmhearted. I thought Jennifer Garner was fantastic...a role that should be nominated for best supporting actress. We think of her just as Sydney Bristow but this really showed a side we haven't seen. Anyway Cody will get nominated for best screenplay which will win. My one and only 2008 prediction.

This Week in Comics

Ultimate Spider-Man 117
Good conclusion to a good story although I thought the ending was a bit abrupt. Six issues and it all came down to a big fight, a death, and then a glossy three page hero definition. It appears that we will have a lighter fare with some good old fashion Spider-Man and his friends. Interesting to see if Bendis can pull off a cheesy TV show and make it fun.

X-men 206
Chapter 9 in the series starts to make some sense of where all this is going (or maybe not?). I thought Bishop was always an interesting underdeveloped character especially when comparing "Days of Future Past" (I suppose the definite future X-men). Since he was from a different version it will be interesting to see where they take his character. So obviously something triggers his future and Cable must have a vision of a different. An interesting development...where will it all end?

Captain America 33
I thought there might be more of a surprise of who was going to take the shield. No big royale battle with Iron Man...hmmmm kind of disappointing. Perhaps this will be revisited.

TV Animation Memories

In previous posts I have mentioned GI Joe has a mainstay for TV (well at least comics) growing up memories. In addition to this was the epic Star Blazers. Hard to believe it has been 30 years since it was first played on American TV. I used to watch the series after school.

For me although Star Wars was a modern day story, the voyage of the Yamato seemed more exciting to me. It wasn't so clear cut. It was a classic journey motif. Having every episode finish with a due date seemed pressing. The characters were a bit more dynamic. The story was more developed, the ships were classical, and the interconnectedness of it was compelling. Looking back it is interesting to see that the series holds up pretty well. It was a compelling story and when the Comet Empire came out the next year it was even better. Kind of a darker version of the original. Very compelling..

Lots of Good Sites
http://www.desslok.com/

http://www.geocities.com/Tokyo/Harbor/3904/geoyamato.html

Also discovered that they had a neat battle game called Star Blazers Fleet Battle System
http://members.aol.com/neghvar2/

http://www.starblazersonline.com/

Lately I have been trying to rewatch the series as I didn't see all the episodes growing up. Boy it is tough trying to go back and rewatch a 26 episode TV event!

Haiku Wednesday

Resolved

End of year, need goals
Climb a mountain, write a book
Life is short, do more

Merry Christmas

Ha, forecasters predicted a slight chance of snow for today and what happened...yup about 8 inches at my house!  The newspaper gave a 50/50 chance.  The article went on to say that Christmas snow is unusual.  The chance of Denver having an inch of snow on the ground is only about 36% having occurred 38 times in the past 106 years.  If a white Christmas means having measurable snowfall at least 0.1 inch the likelihood falls to around 12%.  Only 13 Christmas Days since 1900 have had measurable snowfall.  Well we can add a 14th!

Rox Talk

Since it is the offseason I have revisited some earlier research that I looked in particularly Game Score...see my post dated 7/30/2007. My previous research documented Aaron Cook's masterful 74 pitch complete game victory (Game 101). His game score was a measly 67 basically because he is not a power strike out pitcher which Bill James' Game Score is more tailored to. In an effort to "level" the playing field for "finesse" pitchers, I tried to come up with what I call Game Score +. My effort is described below:

Bill James devised the Game Score metric to determine the dominance of a pitcher in a game. This score is derived by:

1. Start with 50 points;
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded;
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th;
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout;
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed;
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed;
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed; and
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

The highest Game Score for a 9 inning game (105) was recorded by Kerry Wood on May 6, 1998 when he struck out 20! In some circles this metric is also known as the "Ryan" since Nolan Ryan has had 31 starts with a game score equal or greater than a 90. In fact if you look at the top Game Score pitchers most of them are strikeout kings (with the likes of Ryan, Johnson, Koufax, Seaver, Gibson, and Clemens at the top). Based on the scoring above it is obvious that a high strikeout game will lead to the highest possible score for a 9 inning game. The maximum score possible is 114 points for a 27 strikeout perfect game. Meanwhile a perfect game of 27 groundball or flyout outs is only worth 87 points. These two extremes pretty much define "Power" (or dominance) and "Finesse" (or economy). James' method rewards the strikeout which like the Home Run is a bellwether of a pitcher and memorable games surrounding pitcher's typically is the 19 to 20 game strikeout performances.

My study turns to those unsung pitcher's who breezed through games, hardly breaking a sweat. When history looks back at the 90s it will probably be remembered by two (and baseball's last) 300 game winners (well besides Glavine). These two are at the polar opposites of the pitching spectrum. Clemens was obviously a power, dominant, strike out king while Maddux was the crafty, scholarly, economical pitcher.

Clemens 1984 - 2007
W L G IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP
354 184 709 4916.7 4185 1885 1707 363 1580 4672 3.12 1.173

Maddux 1986 - 2007
W L G IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA WHIP
347 214 711 4814.3 4522 1876 1665 332 969 3273 3.11 1.141

Gee talking about some similarities! About the only difference is that Maddux has about 600 less walks and of course about 1,400 less strikeouts. When Game Scores are considered Clemens had 13 starts with scores greater than 90 (high of 99) while Maddux had 4 starts greater than 90 (high of 96). Would like to try to find average game score of their 700 starts but that is beyond the stats I could find. My guess is that Clemens has a higher career game score average due to his greater amount of strikeouts. Great for Clemens and other strikeout pitchers but what about Maddux (based on career stats they basically look the same). Is there a way to equalize pitcher's who win games with outs and economy of pitches thrown? Is not Red Barrett's 58 pitch performance in August 1944 (Game Score of 84) not equal to Wood's performance (which by the way required 122 pitches!).

Bill James' Game Score is an esoteric stat that very few find all that intriguing. Its basis is another way to define a quality start. My premise is that for defining a pitcher's start it is a good tool and a good place to start (can it be tweaked meaningfully?). As mentioned above the highest possible Game Score for a 9 inning game is 114 which relates to a 27 strikeout performance. In a perfect perfect game this would equate to 81 pitches. Therefore to start any sort of equalization the Game Score + system relates to this magical 81. Next post I will get into the numbers.

National Treasure 2

Okay first movie...great story, great adventure. This one...sort of a good story but not a great adventure. Whereas as the first one had an exciting back story with lots of conspiracy (got to love secret societies and the Masons!), this one had sort of a convoluted and when you really think about a conspiracy that really doesn't make any sense. I mean 1865, the Confederates are looking for the lost city of gold and some word puzzle leads to some French guy who made the statues of liberty. Said French guy puts a clue on a statue in France (how the Confederates are going to make it there?) and then the statue points to the resolute desks which weren't even made until 1879 and then these desks contain some drift wood with clues to the ancient city??? So again how were the Confederates going to find the city of gold when the clues weren't even in place??? And why didn't the original owners of the drift wood just go get gold? Then the crazy search for President Book of Secrets which claims that Mount Rushmore was built to hide the city???? Again why are we hiding it in the first place...ughhh if they make a third one let's have a better background (Fountain of Youth page 46???)

Air Force Basketball

As an AF grad I try to follow AF sports. Obviously Football is easiest to follow but I've always been a big basketball fan. Nothing like going into a warm gym on a cold winter's night to watch a game. Although Football is America's sport, I believe that College Basketball is our unrequited love (Baseball is our conscious)! Anyway before the 2003 - 2004 season there really wasn't any reason to follow AF basketball. They were an average team capable of beating the nobodies (assuming we weren't a nobody!) but getting spanked in conference play (see below for winning percentage of overall, grey boxes and conference play, blue boxes).

Even before conference play in 1980 we were a .500 team at best. Two early tournament invites (1960 and 1962) and then nothing. About the only claim to fame is that Gregg Popovich was team Captain back in late 60s. One other blip was two WAC tournament wins during the 89 - 90 season. Overall AF is 602 - 751 (including this year). They have had 52 seasons so the average record is 12 - 14 with a .445 winning percentage. As mentioned pretty average. Conference record has been abysmal at 113 - 313 averaging 4 - 11 record and a winning percentage of .265. Of course this includes the last 5 years when AF went 98 - 39 (conference 43 - 17)!!!! Take these wins out and we had a conference record of 70 - 296....ughhh....wonder why no one watched AF basketball. Obviously in 2003 all this changed. A new attitude (a winning attitude) and a new offensive (Princeton) and AF basketball landed on the map. Unfortunately our two NCAA appearances were against prominent teams like N Carolina and Illinois. We played good in the first half but the talent came through in the second halves. Last year we did make to the NIT Final Four losing a heart breaker to Clemson. The amazing thing is that over this 5 year period we have had 4 coaches! When did AF become the test bed for new hot coaches? Scott and his crony Mooney were expected (funny how Scott couldn't succeed at Princeton and is now back in Colorado at DU) and then of course the traitor who left for more money and Colorado...a real disappointment...I really thought his home was AF but I guess you can't take egos out of coaches. Anyway AF is 8 - 4 going into conference play this year. Hopefully they can be respectable and continue what was started 5 years ago.

This Week in Comics

Umbrella Academy 4
Ughhh sometimes I think it just makes sense for a limited series to be finished then read it in one sitting. Trying to keep up with this series has been a chore. First the characters are really embedded in my brain so trying to associate behaviors is next to impossible. This has been a good read just not for sure what it all means. Get back to me after 2 more issues!

X-men 45
Chapter 8 in the saga which runs to 13 chapters in all (oh, I thought it only went to 9 or 10!). Good battle royale with the newly incarnated X-Force going after Cable (how confusing is that?). Cable steals the blackbird and is going where? We shall see...hints in the book indicate a traitor is revealed. What about Predator X...how does he fit in all this? Questions questions??

Haiku Wednesday

Peace on Earth

Acceptance and love
Forgive your neighbor, let go
One world united...

Indiana Jones IV

Teaser poster out! That means we are almost ready to revisit our favorite adventure character. Latest plot details include:

- Film is set in 1957, making it nineteen years since The Last Crusade

- Indiana Jones is having a quiet life teaching before being thrust back into his old adventuring.

- He races against agents of the Soviet Union for the crystal skull.

So the new bad guys are the Soviets! Ain't it great there always seems to be no shortage of bad guys lurking about. Anyway the crystal skull is some sort of Mayan or Alien artifact. Hope this isn't a revisit of the 2nd film. I don't want creep, I want high seas adventure, no stop action!

Rox Talk

Lots of Hot Stove fodder last week. First off the much anticipated Mitchell Report was released last Thursday. At this point, I think it is a bit anticlimactic. Although now we have a yin to Bond's Yang which would be Clemens. Although public opinion will always be against Bonds more so then Clemens, I think it will give an out to Baseball Writer's when it comes to Hall of Fame election time. Basically they will probably leave Bonds and Clemens off at the same time and then no one will think it is racially related. Of course we could always take Bob Feller's suggestion of having a Hall for those who deserve it and then a cheater's Hall for those who took performance enhancing substance. Okay so that is a bit strong but in a 100 years we will simply look back and the late 80s, through the 90s, and early 00s will simply be known as the Steroid Era much like we have the Deadball Era. All stats will be qualified and the big numbers will simply be adjusted away.

The Denver Post had an article on baseball salaries, competitive balance between leagues, and why the AL is so much better than the NL. Anyway they had a graphic showing the salaries of the starting All-Star players for each league. The graphic basically showed the AL starting line up to be worth $115.16 million and the NL line up worth $52 million. Anyway I don't think that is a good representative sample because the All-Star line up is not always a good example of the overall worth. So I went and found the highest paid player for each position and results are:

Well if you include the exorbitant Yankee salaries for Giambi, A-Rod, and Jeter then the AL blows out the NL but if you take these 3 players out and fill in with the next highest player than basically the salaries are awash. Basically this says that both the NL and AL are equal opportunity money wasters...just look at some of those names...yikes! If you look at total payouts for each league than the AL spent $1,306,601,780 or about $93 million a team while the NL spent $1,184,961,212 or about $74 million. The AL does have another position to pay out paying about $7-8 million for a designated hitter and of course there are 16 NL teams and 14 AL teams. Obviously life at the top is better in the AL with 7 out of the 10 highest paying teams being from the AL. Interesting debate, I do think lineups from top to bottom in the AL are better and there seems to be a bit more talent but I don't think salaries are the ultimate reason for making the AL better.

Magazine Wrap-Up

New Yorker - 12/17/07

The Flynn Effect - "If an American born in the 1930s has an I.Q. of 100, the Flynn Effect says that his children will have I.Q.s of 108, and his grandchildren I.Q.s of close to 120 - more than a standard deviation higher. If we work in the opposite direction, the typical teen-ager of today, with an I.Q. of 100, would have grandparents with average I.Q.s of 82...And if we go back even farther, the Flynn Effect puts the average I.Q.s of the schoolchildren of 1900 at around 70, which is to suggest, bizarrely, that a century ago the US was populated largely by people who today would be considered mentally retarded." --Interesting

Wired - December 2007

More information on the Burj Dubai...still rising by a floor every 3 days to a top secret of at least 2,500 feet more than double the size of the Empire State Building...Yikes that is big!

Rolling Stone - Late December

Interesting article on Cormac McCarthy and his association with the Santa Fe Institute (never read McCarthy seems a bit dark kind of like a serious Stephen King). Back in college I actually collected two books that the Santa Fe Institute had put together on biology and computer stuff. Fascinating stuff...Anyway to my surprise the Institute is still kicking. Anyway just somethings to make you go ahhhh...

"Does anyone know another animal besides humans who commit suicide?" - Answer: Dolphins.

Oohhh another Lisa Randall reference in Rolling Stone magazine...the second in about a month...who would of thunk that a theoretical physicist would get so much play in a rock and roll magazine.

This Week (and Last) in Comics

Buffy the Vampire Slayer Season 8 #9
Brian K. Vaughan's satisfying conclusion to his 4 run mini-series within the series. I found him to be a welcomed relief as Whedon's plot and writing was just confusing. What I find interesting is all the baddie's that keep coming out (and unfortunately it hits me that I am not a real Buffy fan!) Two seasons of watching it religiously just doesn't help me when trying to figure out all the bad guys. Hopefully it becomes clearer as things move along.

Uncanny X-men #493
Well with Cable back (not really for sure why his time streamed father is all bent out of shape about it...I mean kids talk about their parents this way but not usually the other way around?) And then do you really want to send Wolverine and his clones out to get him? Yup X-force is back (what an awful name, I like mine better) with Wolverine leading the charge. Couple of things in this book lead me to believe that the new baby (which is a girl by the way) is none other than some reincarnate of Jean Grey. I could be totally off guard but one 1) Wolverine gives us a "Slim" reference and 2) Cyke is looking at a locket with him and Jean (foreshadowing anyone?) Anyway we shall see...

X-Factor #26
Chapter 7 is the first issue in this cross-over that really is just a filler issue. Nothing of real excitement occurred in this issue. It was a bridge issue. Obviously a bunch is coming to a head but not in this issue. I am curious what Prof X and Cyke continue to have some sort of underlying disagreement...I still wonder if Prof X isn't trying to undermine (when is Magneto showing up by the way ;-)!

The New Avengers #37
Yu cannot draw action sequences...and since this was supposed to be some sort of action packed issue it comes across as weak. This isn't a very good issue...I am tired of this c-lister baddie what about the whole skrull thing...snore zzzzzz give me a new artist and a better plot.

Haiku Wednesday

Holiday Movies

Leaving kids at home?
Really, Santa has a clause?
Good popcorn, bad plots.

The Golden Compass

Good movie although not for sure what all the fuss was about. All I had heard about the movie was that some religious groups were a bit bent out of shape with some of the themes. I really tried throughout the movie to try and figure what this disagreement was all about and frankly I couldn't see it. I had more problems with how the movie ended. Clearly I will have to now wait for Movies 2 and 3. Of course I will read this books to figure out what really is happening...ughhhh...more books to read! Anyway fun adventure book, great characters, visually stunning...a possible DVD buy!

Rox Talk

More Hot Stove News (or in the Roxs case, more like Simmer News)

1) Big deserving contract for Aaron Cook. 4 year deal at $34.5 or thereabouts. Although he is only 1 game over .500 for his career, he has demonstrated that with his sinker and groundball outs that he can succeed at really any ballpark. Note that over that stretch he went through a life threatening blood clot. He came back and pitched a pretty good Game 4 of the Series. I don't think he has the stuff to go up against Number 1 starters week in and week out but he does provide innings and keeps the Roxs in play.
2) LaTroy Hawkins leaves for 500,000 to go play in New York...good riddance...everyone will remember his lights out pitching late in the season but really his other 140 games was a mixed bag. He gave up alot of leads and had one of the perennial worst WPA for any relievers. I am not sad to see him go...he can have fun in the circus...and getting to see the Sox for 20+ games...have fun with that!
3) Well Iguchi signed with San Diego...so much for people wanting to come to Colorado...which I think is just a trendy thing to say to try to get more money from someone else. With Carroll being traded away to the Indians it leaves a gaping hole in the right side of the infield. Perhaps Nix is closer than we thought? Trial by fire...see if he catches lightning like Tulo? We shall see...
4) I was un-informed with Lopez. He had elbow surgery and won't be able to pitch until August 2008 so as a possible arm in the starting rotation it would only be for a late season run.

Finally an update to my pitching stuff from last week. Claiming that the Roxs won the most games under Francis was a true statement but an unfair comparison due to his 34 starts (obviously more opportunities allow for the possibility of more wins). In an effort to correct for this I basically derived a team win per start which reveals that Morales was the hot hand:

Larry Niven - A Gift From Earth

Niven's books are generally pretty "sci-fi" which is why I particularly like him. Over the years he has also written a fair amount of sci-fi ethics specifically what it seems like dealing with off world colonies (Bladerunner on the brain) and settling them. This book was written in 1968 and basically deals with organ banks. The planet founders generally taking the colonist who misbehave, incarcerating them, farming their organs, and recycling these organs to keep the founders alive. Interesting that a book I read a while back (and seems to be somewhat similar), Building Harlequin's Moon by Niven and Brenda Cooper, in which a group of founders terraform a planet and allow colonist to be slaves in creating fuel so that the founders can continue on. Anywau the fate of the colony becomes wrapped up in a colonist Matt Keller who has a mutation where people seem to forget or overlook him. Sort of like a luck mutation (and I swear either Niven or perhaps Heinlein had a character who was bred to be lucky????). Anyway good read nothing great but if Niven wants a part of JK Rowling then he has her on "like a cloak of invisibility" i.e. someone describing Matt's ability.

U2 - The Joshua Tree 20th Anniversary

The greatest album ever...at least in my opinion. I believe every person has that one album that means something in their life. My guess is the album comes out when you are between 15 - 19 years old. It defines that period when music becomes your friend, when things are going good or bad it is something you can turn to, and it is a complete saga where every song means something. It writes itself to your brain so that when you hear a song it instantly transports you back to that period of your life. The Joshua Tree is that album for me...cut loose in the stores in February 1987, I had just turned 16 and was a sophomore in high school. I first heard the album on my way to a track meet, a friend had stopped off at the record store (yup still a record store back then) and purchased the cassette. On the drive, I listened to the album without much thought. Soon after the songs became standards on the radio and With or Without You became my first U2 song. I would turn the radio on just to hear the song. Later that summer I took a trip to Washington and Oregon and while in Eugene, Oregon I picked up the album and listened to it the entire trip. From the quiet opening buildup, to Edge's guitar riffs in With or Without You, to the politics of Bullet it became my all time favorite.

Album Listing:

1. Where The Streets Have No Name (I wanna run...)
2. I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For (I have climbed highest mountain...)
3. With Or Without You (See the stone set in your eyes...)
4. Bullet The Blue Sky (And he's peelin' off those dollar bills)
5. Running To Stand Still (See seven towers, but I only see one way out...)
6. Red Hill Mining Town (And we stooped so low, to reach so high)
7. In God's Country (Sleep comes like a drug in God's country)
8. Trip Through Your Wires (Still shakin', still in pain)
9. One Tree Hill (I'll see you again when the stars fall from the sky)
10. Exit (He could see the stars shine, like nails in the night)
11. Mothers of the Disappeared

Pop references that I remember...Ross and Rachael walked off together for the first time with "With or Without You", personal favorite cover is Pet Shop Boys, "Where the Streets..."

Haiku Wednesday

Office Parties

Everyone dressed up
Beer in hand, awkward like prom
Good Monday stories

This Week in Comics

X-men #205
Chapter 5 in the Messiah Complex. The issue with the "surprise" guest. Have to admit "Cable" never really connected with me. His growth in the X-saga kind of took off when I went through a period of non-X-ness in my life. I was in college, lost track of the group, and this sort of culminated in the X-cutioners saga which I missed all together. Needless to say I just started to read the X-men and then he disappeared and now he is back! Wolverine has had some great lines in this series especially to Gambit, "Cause I'm gonna have to take your first answer"

Ultimate Spider-Man 116
Great spread on Page 5, really love Immonen's art. I've said it before, but it has really added something to this books readability. Bendis quote of the issue, "No, Kenny Rodgers." Kitty --> "Good Chicken" Peter (in regards to who she is dating). Kind of a filler issue to get to the beat down in next issue with the Green Goblin and Hobgoblin. Should be good...same spider time, same spider channel...

Essential X-men Volume 8
Collecting issues 229 - 242, X-factor Inferno books, as well as the Art Adams annual this series was spectacular in the leading up to the last good mega X cross-over which was Inferno (Messiah Complex is looking like a winner). Of the late 80s crossover this one was probably my 3rd favorite behind Fall of the Mutants and the Mutant Massacre but Inferno probably was the ultimate result of all these previous books and leading to the reunited X-teams (up this point the original X-team and the new X-teams were separate groups with unification stemming from this event). Also it conveniently cleared up the whole Maddie issue which really isn't a good time for Scott. First he shacks up with the Jean look alike then drops her once Jean comes back. Making her a clone and a Sinister appendage sort of makes it ok for Scott but up until this point kind of a bummer for our hero. Anyway a great re-read of the stretch of x-books which to me was the renaissance period of great x-stories. Claremont was at his peak and the two best x-artists, Lee and Silvestri.

Rox Talk

Leading off with some personnel issues. Matsui did sign with the Astros for a 3 year deal worth $16.5 million. The Roxs offered a two year deal and stated that they were concern with his lower back and that is why they did not throw a 3rd year in. I respect that from the front office especially with Jayson Nix probably ready in 2 years anyway. Guess you can't begrudge players if the money and years are there, but from a fans perspective I think sometimes maybe a player should give some consideration to the a team that gave him another chance. Two years ago Matsui was washed up, on the scrap heap, and dumped by the Mets. Oh well that's life in the bigs. Possible second basemen of interest out there is still with Loretta, Iguchi, and one interesting one is Uggla from Marlins. Second piece of good news is that Herges did sign with the Roxs so that is good. No big news from Nashville but we shall see...Dealing Dan seems to have backed off on his earlier quick draws.

Research for the week is an additional look see at the Roxs starting pitching.

So the basic stats (plus game score which you read about here):

Basically Francis was the work horse for the team. Fogg was the surprise and savior. The first five pitchers accounted for 75% of the starts and overall the starting pitching accounted for 64.1% of the innings pitched for the entire team. When Lopez pitched, he won (unfortunately he really never was a reliable starter and got shut down early due to injuries). If a quality start is defined as a game score of 50 then only Francis and Jimenez averaged a quality start during the season. Francis, Cook, and Jimenez all had a 77 game score which led the team. Fogg had the distinction of having the lowest game score of 4! Based on the team's success this has to be the best pitching squad put out by the Roxs in their team history.

In addition to the the above stats, I also looked at some other wacky stuff. One question I have always had was what would be a starter's record if he won (or loss) those games because of relievers (or was bailed out by the offensive or relievers and got the no decision)? Also which pitcher actually pitches with the lead?

First Part:

First off a starting pitcher must pitch 5 innings to get a win. Hence Bautista above who only pitched two innings and left with a no decision did actually get a win in my book because he started and he left the mound leading. Hirsh had alot of starts like this as well, leaving before the 5th but leaving with the lead. To me a Starter is the workhorse, there are some middle relievers who get a lot of innings, even some to rival a starter, but to me it is the starter who is asked to go out and give innings. Even through all the changes in pitching, every team looks for 5 guys who can go out and throw at least 6 innings every 5 days. Good pitching still seems to conquer good hitting and most teams need reliable starters to make it deep into the playoffs (see Yankees 2006 and 2007!). Therefore my look above is to give Starters a bit more credit for what they do. In essence I am basically removing the relievers from the equation and innings pitch requirement and simply determining if the starter left with a win, loss, or tie.

So in normal speak the Roxs starters were 55 - 47 (.539 Winning Percentage) with 61 no decisions. In my revised look the starters were 84 - 60 (.583) with 19 ties. Did Francis win 20 games? Well according to my look he would have finished 19 - 13 - 2 (meaning the relief corps blew 2 games in which he left with the lead and the offensive bailed him out 4 times after leaving a game with a loss). When looked at this way only Francis and Lopez actually had a worst winning percentage when these extra W/L are added. The unluckiest? Among the Top 5 inning getters it was Fogg or Jimenez as Fogg had 5 extra wins and Jimenez 4. Cook had the best winning percentage upgrade going 8 - 7 to 11 - 6. Does this revisionist look at pitching stats mean anything? Probably not...over a pitcher's career my guess all the blown saves or offensive help probably average out (although I would like to look at all the MLB starters...). To me the bottom line is what does the team do when a certain Starter is on the mound. Bottom line of the graph below is that when Francis is on the mound the Roxs won 22 times (out of 34 starts). Even Hirsh who really had an up and down season had the team win 10 times when he started (out of 19 starts). To me it means that 2008 does have some upside when it comes to pitching. With Francis, Cook, Hirsh, Jimenez, and Morales, we have some depth.

Second Part:

If the above study looked at the underbelly of starting pitching (who has luck, no luck, or just happens to pitch that day the offensive was asleep) this next look is what does the Starter do for themselves (i.e. keeps the team in the game by keeping the lead or keeping the game tied).

Of the Big 5, Cook pitched with the lead or tied 70% of the time. Overall during the season the Starters for the entire season pitched with the lead 67% which seems high to me but the inning eaters were all around 66% with only Hirsh be subpar at around 52%. Obviously some more seasoning is required for him but from above even by pitching from behind the Roxs still mentioned to win. Which kind of makes all this study of pitching somewhat irrelevant. I need to research some past seasons to see if any of these trends actually hold up over seasons or if there is just randomness from season to season.

Friday Frivolous Findings

An unexciting post I must admit...long week, busy weekend ahead so I will keep it short.

One of my favorite authors wrote a blog at the NY Times...where was I?

What happen to Ain't It Cool News?  It used to be a great movie source now it just seems tired and sold out.

This is a great wacky art site...sometimes a bit distressing but mostly fun!

I want to stay here someday

It's an Academy thing...

The best book store in the world...a place you could seriously spend the entire day

Lemony Snicket - The Wide Window

Book 3 in the wild ride that is Lemony Snicket. Why I decided to read these is beyond me but the series looked interesting if not kind of kooky. I needed something kind of goofy to keep me sane while I travel. Of the first three I thought this one was the creepiest (leeches anyone?) and meanest (pushing Aunt off the boat to her death!). All in all you have to feel for Violet, Klaus, and Sunny. Three books in and now I will have to read until the finale just to see what happens!

Haiku Wednesday

Candlelight

Flickering shadows
Flame Dancing to its rhythm
Mesmerizing light

William Gibson - Spook Country

Book 2 in what I will refer to has the "Blue Ant Crawl" trilogy (although Book 3 has yet to surface and Gibson is 59, I'm thinking there will be a third). This book like the previous book, Pattern Recognition, is some of his best work since Neuromancer (the in between trilogy never worked for me). I actually find it hard to believe that Pattern Recognition was written in 2003! Four years later Gibson is back at it with a new set of characters and one being prodded by Mr Bigend (recurring character). This book reads like a SF Ludlum spy thriller although it isn't as intense or dense as you'd find in a Ludlum. The intertwindness of the plot and the characters are well defined and the neat tidy ending makes for a well written tale. I have found that you don't really read Gibson so much for the story but for the concepts, the metaphors, and the underlying hipness. Reading the book makes everything he says "cool". I finish his novel and a feel a bit more attuned to the future, a little hipper, and maybe a bit more like I just came down from a drug induced high. Good quotes:

"Cities, in Milgrim's experience, had a way of revealing themselves in the faces of their inhabitants, and particularly on their way to work in the morning. There was a sort of basic fuckedness index to be read, then, in faces that hadn't yet encountered the reality of whatever they were on their way to do." - page 260

"...daytime photograph of the New York skyline, complete with the black towers of the World Trade Center. These were so intensely peculiar-looking, in retrospect, so monolithically sci-fi blank, unreal, that they now seemed to Milgrim to have been Photoshopped into ever image he encountered them in." - page 97

Magazine Updates

The New Yorker - 11/5/07

"One of the most frequently discussed difficulties is that of copyright. A conservative reckoning is 32 million (books), Google believes that there could be as many as a hundred million. It is estimated that between five and ten percent of known books are currently in print, and twenty percent-those produced between the beginning of print, in the 15th century, and 1923-are out of copyright. The rest, perhaps 75 percent of all books ever printed, are "orphans," possibly still covered by copyright protections but out of print and pretty much out of mind."



Rolling Stone - 11/15/07


Bill Maher, "People say to me, "Why are you so cynical?" And I say, "I wouldn't be so cynical if you weren't so fucking stupid."

Jon Stewart, "There's no way to fool-proof the world. You cannot out-engineer crazy."

William Gibson, "In a world of superubiquitous computing, you're not gonna know when you're on or when you're off. You're always going to be on, in some sort of blended-reality state."


Lisa Randall, "For one thing, science is difficult. Things like string theory and climate change are complex: People need a little more patience with uncertainty. We live in the era of the sound bite, and, on the whole, science doesn't lend itself to sound bites." and


and

"People not thinking."

Rox Talk

"Finishing second is only bad in a gunfight." - Clint Hurdle

Well good thing the Roxs weren't in a gunfight as we finished as bridesmaids in the manager of the year, rookie of the year, and MVP awards. Hardware is nice but my guess is that the three involved (Hurdle, Tulo, and Holliday) wouldn't trade their end of season wild ride for any of these awards as the winners (Melvin, Braun, and Rollins) all got sent home as we beat two of them in the NL playoffs! Bottom line is these individual awards really shouldn't mean all that much if the individuals care more for what the team does. Plus Tulo shouldn't be all that bummed, his first baseman lost out to a Japanese Pitcher who isn't even in the bigs anymore (should Japanese players really be considered rookies?).

Hot Stove Anyone?

Rockies re-signed catcher Yorvit Torrealba to 2-year deal and also appeared to resign Matt Herges to a 1-year deal. reports seem to indicate that Kaz Matsui will either sign with the Cubs or Astros. Roxs will need to decide to slot a home-grown talent into 2B (Carroll, Barmes, Stewart, or Quintinilla) or find someone serviceable. None of these four really deserve to be everyday starters (Stewart is a corner guy) and have each had the opportunity. My guess is that Spring Training something will come out in the wash. Looks like Hawkins is probably going away as well. No big loss...decent playoff run, but falls into that dime a dozen relief pitcher. I truly believe that all you really need is a decent closer and then just a couple of hot arms throughout the season. You can't really predict how a closer will do from season to season. Just too random. Finally the Roxs will need another starting arm or two. If last season was any indication it is few and far between that the 5 guys you leave Spring Training are still pitching in October!

College Football

A satisfactory first year for Calhoun as he restored some pride to the AF football team. A great 9-3 record with the only real disappointment being a loss to Navy and the possible return of the Commanders and Chiefs trophy. Of AF's 3 losses, two were very winnable and the only game they had real no shot at was the BYU game. A 11-1 record was certainly there but 9-3 is good and one win better than I predicted. A second place conference finish and a bowl berth to the Armed Forces Bowl on 12/31 has capped off a great season.

Stats

Points Scored: 353
Points Allowed: 232

Offensive: 41 TDs 418.9 Yards/Game 120.4 Pass Yards/Game 298.5 Rush Yards/Game
Defense: 26 TDs 357.2 Yards/Game 226.2 Pass Yards/Game 131.0 Rush Yards/Game

Rushing: 3582 Total Yards
Passing: 1445 Total Yards
KO/PR: 959 Total Yards

AF Heisman Trophy Candidate: Chad Hall
Rushing: 1415 Total Yards (led team)
Receptions: 488 Total Yards (led team)
Kick Offs: 425 Total Yards (led team)
Punt Returns: 176 Total Yards (led team)
15 TDs

For those math wizards out there Chad accounted for 41.8% of AF offense for the year! Yikes!

This Week in Comics

New X-men 44

Chapter 4 in the Messiah Complex.  Okay so I figured out what is bugging me about the New X-men.  The art has been so cartoonish that I can't really differentiate between characters. Difficult to get on board if the characters don't carry over.  Of course there is like 12 "new" x-men.  Anyway the cover of this made me realize that I do like these characters but the way they have been drawn as made it difficult to follow.  Got the Days of Future Past going again.  And of course the age old story of young ones flaunting their elders to make up for past mistakes...

Captain America 32

Story keeps getting better...you'd think after Cap got shot things would go down hill but Brubaker keeps things moving.  Bucky (can't say Winter Soldier, sounds goofy).  So it looks like Sharon is pregnant with Caps kid, she is still fighting with herself and sort of helps out Bucky.  And to top it off Bucky gets to meet his nemesis next issue...Iron Man.

Powers 27

Bendis's best work keeps moving forward.  Have to admit I miss the days of Deena and Pilgram doing cop work...not for sure if this whole gaining power thing is really working out for the two of them.  I miss the early work but at least the characters are growing and I guess it would have sucked if it had done a "Moonlighting" thing.  Really to be honest the one reason I still read this is for the letters page.  His letter winner got to answer this month's mail and her response below made me laugh, "Superman would still be superman if hadn't landed in Kansas.  Unless he landed in Mexico.  Then he would be Fabulosohombre."

Umbrella Academy 3

Good wacky fun but wish the story was a bit less chaotic. Hardly know the characters and the story just seems to be shotgunning all over the place. Difficult to follow, might have to wait until all six issues are done and go back and read it again.  The characters are fascinating but the dynamic is tough to read as you don't really know what they do.

Haiku Wednesday

Twinkle

The night sky beckons
They shimmer and wink at me
Old friends say hello

Ebook Readers

With the announcement of Amazon's Kindle, the electronic book debate begins again. I am somewhat torn because the ideal of a book reader that can hold thousands of books is appealing but on the other hand I like how a book feels and I like to look at my book marker and track my progress. Can you really take an ebook anywhere? What about the beach?

Anyway the Kindle to me is the 2.5 generation ebook reader. The 1st generation is pictured to the left and was the Rocket Ebook. This came out in the early 90s and proved to be noteworthy. The fact the the company gave up and sold its assets to a third party clearly indicates it was not ready for the limelight. Next up is the Sony EReader, which came out a couple of years ago. It is already in its 2nd edition. Finally as mentioned, the Kindle is the latest and greatest. I call it Gen2.5 because there really isn't anything different from the Sony product but it does have the always "online" attribute which clearly is a step above other ebooks. Not having to have a computer is good thinking, nickel and diming you and not allowing pdfs? Well that is just bad product development. Judging on how quickly Amazon "supposedly" sold these indicates that others out there thought it worth their $400! So what to think? The ebook has been out and about for about 15 years. There is clearly a niche market out there because you can certainly obtain ebooks at all the major online book retailers and you can get these as pdfs, microsoft reader, and some other standards. The single biggest drawback to all these methods? Yup, the digital age ball and chain which is Digital Rights Management (DRM).

Okay I understand that alot of money is laid out to obtain a publishing right, or an author, or even a movie and/or band and that these corporations don't want freeloaders but why all the sudden is "digital" become the second coming of Satan? Last time I checked VCRs could record (TV and DVDs!), double cassette decks could make perfect copies (of cassettes, CDs, or vinyl no less!), and books could be purchased then dumped at a used book store or even borrowed from a library. Why did the issue change? Did Napster just make too much news? Honestly everyone with just a tad bit of knowledge has borrowed stuff and not paid for something. It is not like an author is getting any money when I walk out of a used book store. Why aren't these stores being sued and closed down? So back to the ebook...assuming you buy a book in some of the many formats you essentially never own it. If the reader or software or hardware go away suddenly you are stuck with books you purchased but never truly own. Why isn't that you can't just resell the book once finished on an online used book store? Why are you still paying almost full price for a book of electrons? Last time I checked electrons don't cost anything and as anyone thought to ask an electron if they want to be part of this...will they go on strike like Hollywood writer's? My point is until the DRM issue is solved no ebook reader will ever take off. It will always be a niche for the geek reader. I totally support authors and there desire to get paid but honestly the paper version will always trump an electronic version. If you have written something worthy (or written a good album or made a good movie) honest people (the majority I believe) will be willing to paid for it.

Rox Talk

Here, here, and here were my preseason picks or thoughts. Basically I used the stat predictions that were theorized by Chone, Marcel, and ZiPS and placed the numbers into the spreadsheet and came up with 89, 81, and 86 wins with an average of 85. I predicted 83. The Roxs surprised us all with a whopping 90 wins (heck Vegas only gave them 74.5!). Looking at the opening day roster we certainly had some dead weight that we shed early in the season to include Brian Lawrence, John Mabry, and Steve Finley. We tossed Martin later in the season and Ramirez was hurt. Also hurt through the season was 3/5s of the starting pitching rotation with Lopez, Cook, and Hirsh all going down mid-season. So ultimately a pretty stable offensive team with some shaky pitching (can you say Denny Bautista 2 inning outting in Philly in Game 145?). We filled in with the likes of Spilborghs, Sullivan, Herges, Speier, Jimenez, and Morales. At the mid-way point, I had updated the predictions based on play time of the new players and had the team at 83 but the Roxs mid-season numbers projected them at 76 wins! Yikes what a great finish. See the historical winning percentage and Pythagoras winning percentage versus 2007 numbers:

So that was what was projected...how did it all finish up? Offensively the average from the predictions indicated 5,684 at bats and 847 runs (from the 8 position players and six bench players). Overall the Roxs had 5,691 at bats and 860 runs (or run every 6.6 at bats, interesting stat?). Below is a table indicating in purple the average runs from the prediction with a one standard deviation error bar shown. The white blocks serve as the actual runs scored. The 8 starters accounted for 72% of the at bats and 78% of the runs scored. Adding in the six bench players you then account for 89% of the at bats and 94% of the runs.

So what does this say? Well offensively we had Torrealba, Matsui, Tulo, Holiday, and Hawpe have outstanding above predicted years and Helton, Atkins, and Taveras below predicted. Hopefully next year the offensive can keep pace.

Pitching is a bit more difficult to predict as injuries can effect numbers more. Thirteen pitchers had starts for the 2007 season. Francis led the team with 34, then Fogg at 29, Cook at 25, Hirsh at 19, and Jimenez at 15. These 5 accounted for 75% of the starts and 51% of the innings and 53% of the runs. So from a prediction standpoint it is much easier to get the offensive down. Although I think it is the pitching that really defines your won/loss record (can this be proven in some way? Have to think about it...a later post). Pitching was not a strong point this year for the Roxs and with any sort of stability next year with Morales and Jimenez both having a partial year under their belts and the further stability of Francis and Cook I think pitching is key for next year's team.

Next year will be tough one for the Roxs. How will they handle being the NL Champs? Can they build on this year or will they buckle? Hard to say but I'll refine the numbers again next year and see if we can get back to the playoffs.

Connie Willis - Bellwether

Reading the Denver Post couple of Sundays ago and came across an article of Connie Willis. Never really entered my radar screen as an author I'd might like but then started to read the article and discovered she lives and writes in Greeley and has won 9 Hugo and 6 Nebula awards! Yikes being a fan of scifi why haven't I read her? Well she writes more in the Ursula LeGuin mode of scifi writing which I generally don't think of as scifi. Little more character and situation type writing. Personally I am a fan of the outer space type sci-fi like Niven. Anyhoo I read her novel Bellwether as it was one of the few books of hers I could find and one that seemed accessible. In this case about a scientist who studies fads (how is it that I find these books...this was simply an outcrop of the non-fiction Tipping Point that I read). This book also tries to wrap the scientific buzz word for 1996 into the story...i.e. chaos theory. Decent book some interesting points on scientists who made great discoveries in odd ways and interesting chapter headings listing fads that have come and gone. Henri Poincare first proposed the idea that chaos and significant scientific breakthroughs were connected. Chaos theorists say that Poincare went through a chaotic period that created a far-from-equilibrium situation in which unconnected ideas shifted into new and startling conjunctions with each other and tiny events created enormous consequences. Poincare believed creative thought was a process of inducing inner chaos to achieve a higher level of equilibrium. Is there a bellwether in chaotic systems? That triggers an iteration or serves as a catalyst to bring forth order? Chaotic systems create feedback loops that tend to randomize the elements of the system and allow for items to sync with different items which can sometimes bring a new level of order rather than more randomness. Anyway good read but the term "bellwether" was new to me. In this book it describes a sheep in a flock that unknowingly is the one sheep that others tend to follow. Obviously for our heroine in this book who searches for trends she is always looking for that trendsetter or bellwether. 

Anyway looking up the term bellwether at wikipedia. And determined an interesting fact:

"In the United States, Missouri, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether, is considered such a region, having produced, beginning in 1904, the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election save that of 1956. The American bellwether states are:

Missouri - 1 miss (1956) from 1904 on, perfect since 1960

Nevada - 1 miss (1976) from 1912 on, perfect since 1980

Tennessee - 1 miss (1960) from 1928 on, perfect since 1964

Ohio - 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on, perfect since 1964
Delaware - 2 misses (2000, 2004) from 1952 on, perfect from 1952 to 1996

College Football

A big 41 - 24 win against Notre Dame. Not that Notre Dame is any good and with back to back losses to service academies, I am guessing life isn't too grand in South Bend these days. Chad Hall continues to play well and is getting some Heisman talk. Our final regular game is this weekend with San Diego St coming to town. We first played San Diego University (I assume this was San Diego St) in 1956. We hold a 17 - 9 lead in the series. We used to dominate them but lately they have had our number. At 8 - 3, AF can put a nice end to a good season...a loss makes my prediction good but I will be greedy and go for one more! Plus I tend to think we play San Diego better here in Colorado and I predict this to be an easy one. AF wins 35 - 14.

2000 45 - 24 W
2001 45 - 21 W
2002 34 - 38 L
2003 3 - 24 L
2004 31 - 37 L
2005 41 - 29 W
2006 12 - 19 L
2007 ???

Games of interest this weekend...Ohio St and Michigan for the Rose Bowl. Kentucky vs Georgia might be interesting.

Last's weeks games of interest, Illinois at Ohio St., yup State looked past the Fighting Illini. Florida at South Carolina...will the 'Cocks and Spurrier be able to find some magic in Columbia? A resounding no! And the under the radar game for the week? USC at California. Go USC

This Week in Comics Part II

Astonishing X-men 23
Whedon astonishing run continues. Good storytelling is such a rarity and with this book each month (or two) the story continues to be awesome. Classic Emma line, "I am, by definition, my own best friend." And guess who ain't dead...yup Cyke is still kicking and has his powers to boot! Kaboom! Or has Wolverine said, "Damn, Summers." Obviously Cyke is my favorite and Whedon just nails him...perfect characterization...and why Cyclops is by far the definition of an X-men. You might have flash, you might be unbreakable, have armor, have claws but when it comes down to a fight, I'd take Scott watching my back.

P.S. My fanboy rift for the year!

X-men Messiah Complex Chapter 1

Well this looks to a cross-over worthy of discussing. The set up is compelling, the first new mutant born since House of M (ughhhh finally 2 years later we are dealing with the ramifications of Bendis's little atom bomb). A race to get to it first. Art looks good...hopefully this will shake up the books and make them readable.

Uncanny X-men 492
Chapter 2 in the Messiah Complex. Is it any wonder why comics have such a hard time getting into books or at least coming back into them. I appreciate the history and all but boy who are the acolytes, what is up with Sinister and the Marauders, and where did Predator X come from? Or is Predator X just a blatant attempt to create a foe for Wolverine to do some good ole beat down on in future issues. And why is Prof X acting so funny? Will he go mental again and how will Magneto play in all this? Anyway good issue and it appears all the X-books are on board so each week is presenting a running chapter. Hopefully this will lead to something..

X-factor 25
Chapter 3 leads off with the worst x-team. If any team has no direction this is it. I tried to get on board but nothing is worthwhile. Once the original X-team moved back to being mainstream there was no reason to continue this book yet it has! Can't editors just say no? Anyway it looks like X-Force is coming back so maybe the Factor will be done. Anyway the multiple man goes into the future and his Layla goes with. What does "46664" on her shirt mean? Anyway these first couple of issues are just the prologue setting the tale. I'm thinking the New X-men will be making a splash this go around.

Haiku Wednesday

Feast

Homeless, cold hungry
Hot food, warm plate and smile
A bountiful thanks

This Week in Comics Part I

The New Avengers 115
Okay so Bendis finally got around to explaining the whole "carnage/venom" happening and it seemed to me that it was just a potential plotline that might have been interesting but ultimately didn't get Bendis' attention and so it was cast off. Which kind of made things a bit lame. Also I am tired of Yu drawing this book...it looks half done, half scribbled. His women are awful. It does not complement Bendis' style at all. Oh and the Mighty Avengers just let the criminal Avengers go? Ughhh be consistent. Have to admit there was one good line between Luke and Jessica "Logan's having words with her.," "Really?," "Oh, Really.," "Words or Claws?"

Buffy The Vampire Slayer 8
Kind of a filler issue for Vaughan...not quite the bang of his first two issues. All the same a good plot continuation. Somewhat surprised the Buffy confrontation occurred so early...thought it might be drawn out. Also this is Vaughan's next to last issue so it looks like his 4 run series was a "Faith" aside. Good character developments. Will miss Brian's writing.

Ultimate Spider-Man 115

Bendis, bendis, everywhere. Okay can someone please change Kitty's uniform? Ughhh what the heck is she wearing and how in the heck can she see? Also the outfit reminded me of another character's spandex...I thought it was Darkhawk but no it was the cover to X-factor 35. The Orphan Maker...yikes that goes way back. And then is she trying to bring back the ghost of Psylocke with that sash? Kitty doesn't have a costume! There is a reason for that! Anyway good issue, good Parker cracks and great full page spread about midway throught the issue of Spidey doing his thing. Good ending too, one I think every comic book issue should have. Fantastic cliffhanger wanting more!